<p>At the start of the year, I made seven predictions about how 2025 would unfold. Six months in, it's time to mark my own work. From AI capability breakthroughs to autonomous vehicles, climate extremes to workforce transformation, I examine what I got right, what I missed, and why the 2027-2028 period will be when vertical AI hits the real economy in force.</p><p><strong>In this episode you’ll hear:</strong></p><ul><li>The AI wall that never came: Ten-million-token models exist, O3 scores 25% on Frontier Math vs GPT-4's 2%, but some models are inconsistent and overthink problems</li><li>When bots officially out-talk humans: My modeling shows LLMs crossed the threshold of producing more text than humans sometime this summer</li><li>The Waymo vs Uber SF battle: They've beaten Lyft and expanded to New York, but Tesla's Austin robo-taxi fleet changes the competitive landscape</li><li>Climate and energy predictions that were "too easy": Record climate extremes, 30% solar growth, and Indonesia's stunning EV jump from 20% to 80% in two years</li><li>What I completely missed: The AI capex boom, humanoid robots at Figure/BMW/Amazon, and workforce impact with CEOs reporting 20-50% AI assistance</li><li>Why getting too many predictions right is a problem: I reflect on whether scoring too well means I didn't push boundaries enough in my forecasting</li><li>The 2027-2028 turbulence ahead: Why four-year-old AI startups challenging incumbents while early adopters reap deep organizational benefits will create economic turbulence</li></ul><p><strong>Our new show</strong></p><p>This was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below.</p><p>The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at <a href="mailto:
[email protected]">
[email protected]</a>.</p><p><strong>Azeem’s links:</strong></p><ul><li>Substack: <a href="https://www.exponentialview.co/">https://www.exponentialview.co/</a></li><li>Website: <a href="https://www.azeemazhar.com/">https://www.azeemazhar.com/</a></li><li>LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=uk">https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=uk</a></li><li>Twitter/X: <a href="https://x.com/azeem">https://x.com/azeem</a></li></ul><p><strong>Timestamps:</strong></p><p>(00:00) Grading my predictions from January 2025</p><p>(01:23) #1: No AI Wall</p><p>(03:59) #2: Warp-speed deployment</p><p>(05:16) #3: Bots out-talk humans</p><p>(06:24) #4: Waymo overtakes Uber in SF</p><p>(08:31) #5: Climate extremes intensify</p><p>(09:09) #6: Solar keeps breaking records</p><p>(10:06) #7: EVs shift up a gear</p><p>(11:12) The problem with predicting too accurately</p><p>(12:01) What I missed</p><p>(12:14) The CapEx boom around AI</p><p>(13:56) The rise of humanoid robots</p><p>(14:36) AI's impact on the workforce</p><p>(18:40) Looking ahead</p><p>(18:48) Infrastructure first, apps next</p><p>(19:52) 2027/2028 will be a "period of fireworks"</p><p>(21:39) When we'll find out if AI is a bubble</p><p>(23:02) A question for the future</p><p><strong>Production:</strong></p><p>Production by <a href="http://supermix.io/">supermix.io</a> and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd</p><br/> <p>Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See <a href="https://pcm.adswizz.com">pcm.adswizz.com</a> for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.</p>
