27 - Risk estimates.

27 - Risk estimates.  Given the limitations of ordinary observation and modeling, expert elicitation is frequently used instead to obtain probability estimates.  Humanity has a 95% probability of being extinct in 8,000,000 years, according to J. Richard Gott's formulation of the controversial doomsday argument, which argues that we have probably already lived through half the duration of human history.  - In 1996, John A. Leslie estimated a 30% risk over the next five centuries (equivalent to around 6% per century, on average).  - The Global Challenges Foundation's 2016 annual report estimates an annual probability of human extinction of at least 0.05% per year (equivalent to 5% per century, on average).  - As of May 13, 2026, Metaculus users estimate a 2% probability of human extinction by 2100.  - A 2020 study published in ⁣⁣Scientific Reports⁣⁣ warns that if deforestation and resource consumption continue at current rates, these factors could lead to a "catastrophic collapse in human population" and possibly "an irreversible collapse of our civilization" in the next 20 to 40 years. According to the most optimistic scenario provided by the study, the chances that human civilization survives are smaller than 10%. To avoid this collapse, the study says, humanity should pass from a civilization dominated by the economy to a "cultural society" that "privileges the interest of the ecosystem above the individual interest of its components, but eventually in accordance with the overall communal interest."  - Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at the University of Oxford known for his work on existential risk, argues:  that it would be "misguided"[38] to assume that the probability of near-term extinction is less than 25%, and  that it will be "a tall order" for the human race to "get our precautions sufficiently right the first time," given that an existential risk provides no opportunity to learn from failure.  - Philosopher John A. Leslie assigns a 70% chance of humanity surviving the next five centuries, based partly on the controversial philosophical doomsday argument that he champions. Leslie's argument is somewhat frequentist, based on the observation that human extinction has never been observed but requires subjective anthropic arguments. Leslie also discusses the anthropic survivorship bias (which he calls an "observational selection" effect) and states that the a priori certainty of observing an "undisastrous past" could make it difficult to argue that we must be safe because nothing terrible has yet occurred. He quotes Holger Bech Nielsen's formulation: "We do not even know if there should exist some extremely dangerous decay of, say, the proton, which caused the eradication of the earth, because if it happens we would no longer be there to observe it, and if it does not happen there is nothing to observe."  - Jean-Marc Salotti calculated the probability of human extinction caused by a giant asteroid impact. If no planets are colonized, it will be 0.03 to 0.3 for the next billion years. According to that study, the most frightening object is a giant long-period comet with a warning time of only a few years and, therefore, no time for any intervention in space or settlement on the Moon or Mars. The probability of a giant comet impact in the next hundred years is 2.2×10−12.  - As the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction estimated in 2023, there is a 2 to 14% chance of an extinction-level event by 2100.  - Bill Gates told The Wall Street Journal on January 27, 2025, that he believes there is a 10–15% chance of a natural pandemic hitting in the next four years, but he estimated that there was also a 65–97.5% chance of a natural pandemic hitting in the next 26 years.  - On March 19, 2025, Henry Gee said that humanity will be extinct in the next 10,000 years. To avoid it happening, he wanted all humanity to establish space colonies in the next 200-300 years.  - On September 11, 2025, Warp News estimated a 20% chance of global catastrophe and a 6% chance of human extinction by 2100. They also estimated a 100% chance of global catastrophe and a 30% chance of human extinction by 2500.  Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/extinction-of-the-human-species--7081249/support.This episode includes AI-generated content.