292. Trends, risks and opportunities in global bonds

This episode covers the interesting dynamics of the past year, including varying economic forecasts, the impact of hiking cycles, and the phases of higher yields in developed markets. Eva Sun-Wai, fund manager on the M&G Global Macro Bond fund, provides insights into the three phases of higher yields, touches on the unique features of the US mortgage market and shares her views on the "higher for longer" narrative, expressing a slightly more cautious stance and anticipating a potential hard landing or recession.The conversation also examines the portfolio's positioning, touching on themes such as de-risking, duration management, and specific views on the Japanese market. Looking ahead to 2024, the discussion highlights the significance of fiscal positions, government debt levels, and the delicate balance between fiscal and monetary policies. Eva shares her perspectives on the challenges and dynamics that may unfold in the fiscal versus monetary landscape.What’s covered in this episode: Three phases of higher yields in developed marketsWhy the managers are positioned for a ‘hard landing’The differences in the US mortgage marketOpportunities in the UK and European bond marketWhat they expect to see in markets for 2024Where the managers have de-risked the portfolioGovernment or corporate bonds?Six-month US government bond vs S&P 500The main themes in the portfolio todayEva’s recent visit to Tokyo to the Ministry of Finance in JapanThe fiscal versus monetary dynamicMore about the fund: M&G Global Macro Bond is a ‘go-anywhere’ bond fund: the team can invest in any bond issued by governments and companies absolutely anywhere in the world. They can also invest in any currency, creating a portfolio that should benefit from both long-term trends and short-term tactical investments.Learn more on fundcalibre.comPlease remember, we’ve been discussing individual companies to bring investing to life for you. It’s not a recommendation to buy or sell. The fund may or may not still hold these companies at the time of listening. Elite Ratings are based on FundCalibre’s research methodology and are the opinion of FundCalibre’s research team only.