396. What investors keep getting wrong about cycles

Markets are often driven less by logic and more by emotion, and that pattern hasn’t changed despite decades of evolution in investing tools and technology. Nick Clay, manager of the TM Redwheel Global Equity Income fund, joins us this week to explore how cycles of greed and fear continue to shape market behaviour, and why volatility is returning after years of unusually stable conditions. We discuss inflation, AI-driven disruption, shifting definitions of quality and why valuation discipline matters more in today’s environment. The interview also challenges the idea of “quality at any price” and highlights the importance of income, compounding and long-term thinking in a world where investor expectations can change quickly.What’s covered in this episode: Market cycles and repeating investor behaviourEmotional drivers: fear, greed, and volatilityPost-2008 “low volatility” regime and its unwindInflation, liquidity, and changing market expectationsAI disruption and valuation reassessmentSell discipline and valuation frameworksCase study: Cisco and rerating riskWhat “reliable income” means todayDividend growth vs inflationUS exceptionalism and market rotationQuality investing vs “quality at any price”AI adoption, disruption, and long-term uncertaintyImportance of compounding income on returnsLearn more on fundcalibre.comPlease remember, we’ve been discussing individual companies to bring investing to life for you. It’s not a recommendation to buy or sell. The fund may or may not still hold these companies at the time of listening. Elite Ratings are based on FundCalibre’s research methodology and are the opinion of FundCalibre’s research team only.