AI‑n’t a Bubble (Yet): Winners, Losers, and the H1:2026 Equity Sprint

On this week’s episode, a busy week of mixed economic signals—initial jobless claims hit a very low 191,000 while ADP reported a -32,000 decline in private payrolls—and a split economy where ISM Manufacturing remains in contraction as Services continue to expand. With a delayed September PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) arriving today, just before next week’s FOMC meeting, markets are leaning toward a 25 bp “risk management” cut as Treasury yields hover in a 4.05–4.15% range and auctions resume. Looking ahead to 2026, the team expects continued momentum without a recession, a need for discernment in AI rather than bubble fears, a potentially more dovish Fed posture amid leadership changes, a strong first half for equities, and a steady emphasis on diversification through debt concerns and midterm-election noise.Speakers: Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities  01:37 - Labor Market & Economy Split: Initial claims ~191,000 and below 225,000 for three weeks; BLS jobs report delayed to Dec 16; ADP shows -32,000 private payrolls—cooling, ISM Manufacturing remains in contraction (multi-year) while Services continue expanding—highlighting a bifurcated economy. 3:47 - Inflation & Fed setup: September PCE is the last read before the FOMC; markets price ~95% odds of a 25 bp cut, with dot‑plot dissents crucial for the 2026 rate path. 07:16 - Rates & Auctions: 10‑year Treasury trading ~4.05–4.15% with dip‑buying; auctions restart next week ($58 billion 3‑yr, $39 billion 10‑yr, $22 billion 30‑yr). 09:47 - 2026 Outlook Highlights: Momentum without recession; AI requires discernment (ecosystems forming, winners vs. losers); possible dovish tilt at the Fed amid leadership changes; equities set up for a strong first half with potential mid‑year inflation‑related volatility; stay diversified through debt/deficit concerns and midterm‑election uncertainty.  Additional Resources Rewatch: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth in an Age of Disruption and Change  Key Questions Weekly Investment Brief Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletter Follow us on LinkedIn