Andrew Martinez on the Art of Forecasting

Andrew Martinez is a former Treasure economist and currently is an assistant professor of economics at American University. In Andrew's first appearance on the show, he discusses his career as a forecaster, the current state of forecasting, the intersection of AI and forecasting, the role of the SEP and monetary policy surprises, his work with David on the NGDP Gap measure, and much more.     Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on January 13th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:20 - Andrew's Career 00:08:36 - State of Forecasting 00:20:19 - AI and Forecasting 00:29:34 - The SEP and Monetary Policy Surprises 00:41:07 - Nominal GDP/Expectations Gap 00:54:56 - Outro