EPISODE · May 26, 2025 · 1H 6M
Breaking Down the Economics of AI
from muckrAIkers · host Jacob Haimes and Igor Krawczuk
Jacob and Igor tackle the wild claims about AI's economic impact by examining three main clusters of arguments: automating expensive tasks like programming, removing "cost centers" like call centers and corporate art, and claims of explosive growth. They dig into the actual data, debunk the hype, and explain why most productivity claims don't hold up in practice. Plus: MIT denounces a paper with fabricated data, and Grok randomly promotes white genocide myths.(00:00) - Recording date + intro (00:52) - MIT denounces paper (04:09) - Grok's white genocide (06:23) - Butthole convergence (07:13) - AI and the economy (14:50) - Automating profit centers (29:46) - Removing the last cost centers (47:16) - "This time is different" (explosive growth) (57:55) - Alpha Evolve, optimization, and slippage LinksUniversity of Chicago working paper - Large Language Models, Small Labor Market EffectsOECD working paper - Miracle or Myth? Assessing the macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial IntelligenceEpoch AI blogpost - Explosive Growth from AI: A Review of the ArgumentsBusiness Insider article - Anthropic CEO: AI Will Be Writing 90% of Code in 3 to 6 MonthsPreprint - Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likelyAutomating profit centersPivot to AI blogpost - If AI is so good at coding … where are the open source contributions?Ben Evans' Mastodon post - "Show me the pull requests"NY Times article - Your A.I. Radiologist Will Not Be With You SoonFastCompany article - More companies are adopting 'AI-first' strategies. Here's how it could impact the environmentForbes article - Business Tech News: Shopify CEO Says AI First Before EmployeesNewsroom article - IBM Study: CEOs Double Down on AI While Navigating Enterprise HurdlesPNAS research article - Evidence of a social evaluation penalty for using AIArs Technica article - AI use damages professional reputation, study suggestsRemoving cost centersThe Register article - Anthopic's law firm blames Claude hallucinations for errorsFortune article - Klarna plans to hire humans again, as new landmark survey reveals most AI projects fail to deliverWikipedia article - The Market for LemonsAlphaEvolveDeepmind press release - AlphaEvolve: A Gemini-powered coding agent for designing advanced algorithmsDeepmind white paper - AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discoveryOff TopicVelvetShark blogpost - Why do AI company logos look like buttholes?MIT Economics press release - Assuring an accurate research recordPivot to AI blogpost - How to make a splash in AI economics: fake your dataPivot to AI blogpost - Even Elon Musk can’t make Grok claim a ‘white genocide’ in South Africa
What this episode covers
Jacob and Igor tackle the wild claims about AI's economic impact by examining three main clusters of arguments: automating expensive tasks like programming, removing "cost centers" like call centers and corporate art, and claims of explosive growth. They dig into the actual data, debunk the hype, and explain why most productivity claims don't hold up in practice. Plus: MIT denounces a paper with fabricated data, and Grok randomly promotes white genocide myths.(00:00) - Recording date + intro (00:52) - MIT denounces paper (04:09) - Grok's white genocide (06:23) - Butthole convergence (07:13) - AI and the economy (14:50) - Automating profit centers (29:46) - Removing the last cost centers (47:16) - "This time is different" (explosive growth) (57:55) - Alpha Evolve, optimization, and slippage LinksUniversity of Chicago working paper - Large Language Models, Small Labor Market EffectsOECD working paper - Miracle or Myth? Assessing the macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial IntelligenceEpoch AI blogpost - Explosive Growth from AI: A Review of the ArgumentsBusiness Insider article - Anthropic CEO: AI Will Be Writing 90% of Code in 3 to 6 MonthsPreprint - Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likelyAutomating profit centersPivot to AI blogpost - If AI is so good at coding … where are the open source contributions?Ben Evans' Mastodon post - "Show me the pull requests"NY Times article - Your A.I. Radiologist Will Not Be With You SoonFastCompany article - More companies are adopting 'AI-first' strategies. Here's how it could impact the environmentForbes article - Business Tech News: Shopify CEO Says AI First Before EmployeesNewsroom article - IBM Study: CEOs Double Down on AI While Navigating Enterprise HurdlesPNAS research article - Evidence of a social evaluation penalty for using AIArs Technica article - AI use damages professional reputation, study suggestsRemoving cost centersThe Register article - Anthopic's law firm blames Claude hallucinations for errorsFortune article - Klarna plans to hire humans again, as new landmark survey reveals most AI projects fail to deliverWikipedia article - The Market for LemonsAlphaEvolveDeepmind press release - AlphaEvolve: A Gemini-powered coding agent for designing advanced algorithmsDeepmind white paper - AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discoveryOff TopicVelvetShark blogpost - Why do AI company logos look like buttholes?MIT Economics press release - Assuring an accurate research recordPivot to AI blogpost - How to make a splash in AI economics: fake your dataPivot to AI blogpost - Even Elon Musk can’t make Grok claim a ‘white genocide’ in South Africa
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Breaking Down the Economics of AI
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