China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

<p>Lennart Heim, a researcher and information scientist at RAND Corporation, joins Azeem Azhar to unpack a provocative claim: China is catching up with US AI capabilities, but it doesn't matter. </p><p>Timestamps: </p><p>(00:00) Episode trailer </p><p>(01:19) Lennart’s core thesis </p><p>(03:26)   Why compute matters so much </p><p>(07:31)  The investment split between model R&D and model execution </p><p>(11:18)  How test-time compute impacts costs </p><p>(16:14) The geopolitics of compute </p><p>(21:32) Why does the U.S have more compute capacity than China? </p><p>(25:01)  The trade-off between economic needs and national-security needs </p><p>(31:54)  How technology change might shift the battlegrounds </p><p>(35:33)  Dealing with compute and power concentration </p><p>(48:19)  Concluding quick-fire question </p><p> </p><p><strong>Lennart's links: </strong></p><ul><li>Twitter/X: <a href="https://twitter.com/ohlennart">https://twitter.com/ohlennart</a></li><li>Personal blog: <a href="https://heim.xyz/">https://heim.xyz/</a></li></ul><p><strong>Azeem's links:</strong></p><ul><li>Substack: <a href="https://www.exponentialview.co/">https://www.exponentialview.co/</a></li><li>Website: <a href="https://www.azeemazhar.com/">https://www.azeemazhar.com/</a></li><li>LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar">https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar</a></li><li>Twitter/X: <a href="https://x.com/azeem">https://x.com/azeem</a></li></ul><p>This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack. </p><p>Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd</p><br/> <p>Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See <a href="https://pcm.adswizz.com">pcm.adswizz.com</a> for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.</p>