China's HUGE Trade Surpluses Mask Capital Outflows [Eurodollar University, Ep. 185]

China's 2021 trade surpluses were gigantic, so why isn't the yuan surging too? We review China's 2014-21 trade and currency experience from the perspective of the eurodollar, the international reserve currency that once intermediated trade but now intermediates capital.------EP. 185 TOPICS------00:00 INTRO: Capital flows drive trade, not vice versa. A review of the Chinese trade surplus.03:39 The eurodollar created itself to finance, intermediate trade; to solve Triffin's Paradox.06:12 The eurodollar transitioned from focusing on financing trade to intermediating finance.09:10 The eurodollar created itself offshore (jurisdictions with light-touch regulation).11:17 Is a US trade deficit necessary for the eurodollar network to create US dollars?15:13 China's recent trade surplus has been surging suggesting intense eurodollar inflows.17:12 In 2014-16 China's trade surplus accelerated but the CNY lost value (E$ outflows?).19:30 In 2017-18 China's trade surplus was stable but the CNY surged in value (E$ inflows?).20:58 In 2018-19 China's trade surplus slowed but the CNY collapsed in value (E$ outflows?).22:45 In 2020 China's trade surplus surged and its currency surged in value (E$ inflows?).23:47 In 2021 China's trade surplus surged but its currency slowed in value (E$ outflows?).25:44 OUTRO: If China's eurodollar outflow continues it'll weigh on the global economy.----EP. 185 REFERENCES----China’s Total Dollar Equation: CNY minus Trade Flows equals Some Sense of the Euro$ Problem?: https://bit.ly/33fLy1CAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlinRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7-----SEE ALL EPISODES-----Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL----HEAR ALL EPISODES-----Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr---------THE TEAM---------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Illustrations by David Parkins. Audio and video editor, Terence. Episode intro/outro music is CABO by Superintendent McCupcakes from Epidemic Sound.------FIND THE TEAM-------Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPJeff: https://alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/Emil: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiEmil: https://www.EuroDollarEnterprises.comDavid: https://DavidParkins.com/Terence: https://www.VisualFocusMedia.com