Crime in America is down, but please don't tell anyone

It was a lovely September morning in Indianapolis in 2018. We had been living in our new townhouse downtown for about a year, relocating from a house just two blocks up the street. I was still a consultant back then and this was still my offseason. So, I had casually risen and slow-walked my way through my morning routine, making my way to the shower around 10:30 am. When I got out, the crime rate in my house had skyrocketed. A burglar was downstairs stealing my laptop, backpack and wallet. Last week, the FBI released its Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) summary for 2024. It's an annual report commonly used to understand the "crime rate." The good news in this report, as has been the trend for the last three decades, is that crime in America continues to slow. However, much of America doesn't seem to know it or doesn't want to admit it.  Feeling like crime is on the rise justifies doing dramatic things like mobilizing the military in cities like Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. when there is no actual justification. It's not really about actual crime. It's the crime drama that is in play here. It would be convenient to give credit to some politician, political party, or civic group for the sharp declines in violent and property crimes since the early 90s. But the reduction is too big and has been trending for too many political cycles to support such a claim. Besides, in 2025, much of the public would rather pretend that crime, in general, is rampant, a scourge that must be given the highest priority to eradicate. Yes, it is my belief that much of America would actually prefer to believe that crime is a growing problem, not a shrinking one. Pew Research published an update to its extensive study on the issue last year. The most shocking part of the study is how disconnected the public's perception is from the reality of actual crime rates. For example, between 1993 and 2022, violent crime has decreased by 49%. By half! But when asked, the perception that crime is up "in the last year" has continued to rise from 47% in 2000, to 77% in 2023. As crime rates have shrunk, the perception of its growth has risen. And almost as sharply. Why is that? One contributing factor is how crime is reported.