CropGPT - Maize - Week 18

This episode presents an analytical overview of the global maize market as of May 4, 2025, highlighting major shifts in trade patterns, production forecasts, and regulatory developments across key producing and importing regions.Pakistan: Corn exports declined sharply by 87% in Q1 2025 to just 53,000 tons, down from 419,000 tons in the same period last year. The fall was driven by surging domestic feed demand—especially from the poultry sector—and export disruptions to markets such as China, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and Romania. Demand was further supported by the reauthorization of GMO soybean imports. Domestic consumption is expected to exceed production in 2025–26, with poultry accounting for 65% of national maize usage. New sanitary regulations have also tightened export eligibility.Turkey: A new duty-free maize import quota of 1 million tons has been implemented, valid through July 2025. Half of this quota has already been fulfilled, and imports beyond the cap face a 130% tariff, compared to 5% within the quota. The measure follows strong demand from Turkey’s feed industry.Brazil: Maize production for 2024–25 is forecast at 129.7 million tons. However, yield potential is under pressure due to drought and pest issues in Mato Grosso and Parana. Domestic ethanol production has risen by over 31% year-on-year, absorbing 15% of corn supply and tightening stocks. Additionally, the removal of corn import tariffs has intensified competition for Brazilian farmers.Argentina: The 2024–25 harvest remains resilient despite weather challenges, with production forecast at 49 million tons. Yields are averaging 8.37 tons/ha. Argentina’s exports have remained competitive, particularly during Brazil’s offseason, supported by strong global demand.Paraguay: Maize exports are projected to fall 12% to 2.9 million tons in 2025–26 due to growing domestic use in ethanol and livestock feed. Although total production is stable at 5.2 million tons, a reduction in planted area is expected, mitigated by forecasted yield improvements.China: The country plans to expand GM maize cultivation from 670,000 hectares to over 3.3 million hectares by 2025. This effort is part of a broader push for food security through biotechnology, though GM maize will still account for only around 7% of total maize acreage. Unauthorized GM seed use remains a regulatory concern.