CropGPT - Wheat - Week 25

Episode Summary: Global Wheat Market Weekly – June 22, 2025This episode of the Global Wheat Market Weekly provides a concise overview of critical developments impacting international wheat trade as of June 22, 2025.The podcast opens with a sharp focus on Russia, where wheat exports have declined significantly. Between June 1 and June 15, shipment volumes dropped from 2.7 million tons in the previous year to just 565,000 tons. Daily shipments fell to 37,700 tons, down from 185,000 tons. June export forecasts now range between 1.1 and 1.5 million tons. As the agricultural year ends on June 30, total wheat exports are projected to reach 41.5 million tons, falling short of the earlier estimate of 42 million. Grain exports overall are expected to hit 46.7 million tons, down from the previously anticipated 49 million.Export reductions are most notable in key markets such as Egypt, Turkey, Sudan, Bangladesh, Algeria, and Yemen. These declines are attributed to less competitive pricing compared to European wheat and reduced stock availability. The number of exporting companies and ports has also contracted sharply compared to last year.The episode also highlights a 57 percent year-on-year increase in Azerbaijan’s wheat and meslin imports in April 2025, with Kazakhstan as the dominant supplier. Russia and Turkey contributed smaller volumes. This surge reflects growing domestic demand and may indicate a pivot toward enhancing local production or diversifying supply chains.On the innovation front, Russian agribusiness firm STEP is developing a new winter wheat variety with improved resilience to drought and heat. The initiative is timely given potential climate-related agricultural emergencies in regions like Krasnodar and Rostov. STEP is also expanding into other crops, including new pea varieties. Additionally, Russia is tightening seed import restrictions to promote domestic production and reduce dependence on foreign inputs.