CropGPT - Wheat - Week 47

This episode covers developments across major wheat-producing regions.Ukraine projects a 2025–2026 harvest of 23 million tons, up from 22.6 million last year, with expected exports rising to 17 million tons. The government plans to maintain open export routes, spurred by increased output and slower early-season exports. So far, 6.8 million tons have been shipped, down from 8.6 million the previous year, suggesting a favorable domestic outlook.India plans to resume wheat byproduct exports after a three-year pause, potentially shipping up to 1 million tons. Favorable monsoons and strong domestic supply may also lead to lifted export restrictions, enhancing India’s market influence amid ongoing trade talks with the United States.Canada exceeded average wheat production with a total of 36.6 million tons in 2025, most of it graded No. 1 or 2. Export targets stand at 27.4 million tons, supported by marketing efforts and quality data for Eastern wheat classes.China has completed over 80 percent of its winter wheat sowing, aided by mechanized technologies despite delays from autumn rains. These efforts support crop rotation and long-term food security.Nigeria is boosting dry-season wheat production, allocating 40,000 hectares and enrolling 80,000 farmers. Modern practices and certified inputs are key to reducing import dependence.Kazakhstan anticipates a strong harvest of 18.9 million tons, a 29 percent rise over the five-year average, reflecting broader agricultural growth. Russia projects 137.1 million tons in total grain output, including 88.2 million tons of wheat, with strong export potential despite setbacks in corn and oilseed sectors.Elsewhere, Syria is replenishing reserves after a poor harvest, relying heavily on Russian and Ukrainian imports to maintain food security.