CropGPT - Wheat - Week 50

This episode delivers a comprehensive update on the global wheat market.Russia’s wheat export forecast remains unchanged at 44 million tons for the 2025–26 season. Domestically, wheat prices have stabilized despite global pressures, with December export pricing at $227.50 per ton. While cultivated areas have expanded, logistical challenges from non-traditional exporting regions could limit volumes. Ongoing discussions for export deals with Indonesia emphasize Russia’s growing influence in global wheat trade.The United States Department of Agriculture has slightly increased its harvest estimate to 87.5 million tons. The European Union continues to contribute significantly to global wheat output, with steady export expectations at 33 million tons. However, a return to typical yield levels is anticipated in 2026 following an exceptionally productive year.Ukraine’s wheat exports fell by 19 percent year over year in November, totaling 1.1 million tons. Over the past five months, exports reached 7.3 million tons, a 20 percent drop from the previous marketing year. Key buyers include Egypt, Indonesia (whose imports declined 9 percent), and Algeria. Despite reduced performance, Ukraine's export potential is forecasted to reach 16.7 million tons, slightly above earlier projections.Uzbekistan is reforming its subsidy system for wheat and cotton farmers to improve efficiency through data-driven, cost-based allocations. In Saudi Arabia, wheat utilization is projected to reach 4.6 million tons by 2025–26, driven by demographic and economic growth. However, domestic production will cover only a quarter of demand, requiring substantial imports.Iran has increased wheat imports to 1.125 million tons from April to October, prompted by declining domestic output. Imports from Russia, the UAE, and Turkey are helping secure food supplies and support the processing sector.Canada has raised its wheat production estimates to record levels, contributing to the overall surge in global wheat output. Meanwhile, shifts in export strategies and futures pricing continue to influence international trade patterns.