Daily Markets Briefing — 2026-04-14

# Daily Markets Briefing — 2026-04-14 **Alex:** Good morning and welcome to the Daily Markets Briefing! It's Tuesday, April 14th, 2026, and I'm Alex here with our resident market expert Jordan. We've got a lot to unpack today — bank earnings are rolling in, oil prices are doing interesting things, and there's a potential airline mega-merger floating around. **Jordan:** Great to be here, Alex. And you're right, this is one of those mornings where you almost don't know where to start because every corner of the market has something happening. **Alex:** Let's start with the elephant in the room — the Strait of Hormuz blockade is now in its second day, but surprisingly, markets are feeling pretty optimistic this morning. What's going on there? **Jordan:** Yeah, it's a fascinating dynamic. Despite the blockade continuing, both the US and Iran have signaled they're willing to come back to the negotiating table. Trump said the 'right people' in Iran still want a deal, and that comment alone lifted futures overnight. We're seeing classic risk-on sentiment across global markets. **Alex:** And oil is actually pulling back — we're back below $100 a barrel now, though it's still up over 60% year-to-date. There's been this debate about the 'real' price of oil right now, $133 versus $99 depending on how you calculate the war premium. **Jordan:** Exactly. The $133 figure represents peak panic pricing during the initial escalation, while $99 reflects where we are with peace-talk hopes baked in. The spread between those two numbers is essentially the market's way of pricing geopolitical uncertainty. If talks progress, we could see oil drift lower. If they collapse, buckle up. **Alex:** Meanwhile, the dollar hit a fresh six-week low against a basket of currencies, and gold is catching a bid on that softer dollar. Treasury yields edging lower too, tracking the oil decline. **Jordan:** It's all connected. Lower oil means slightly less inflation panic, which means less pressure on the Fed, which means yields can ease a bit. Gold benefits from the weaker dollar and the lingering uncertainty. It's a textbook macro setup right now. **Alex:** Speaking of inflation, we've got March PPI data coming out today. Markets are watching closely to see how much of the war's impact is showing up in producer prices. **Jordan:** That's the key question. We've had elevated energy costs for weeks now, and producer prices tend to capture that before consumer prices do. A hot number could remind everyone that even if oil pulls back, the inflationary damage may already be in the pipeline. **Alex:** Let's shift to bank earnings because wow, what a quarter for the big banks. JPMorgan just reported net income up 13% to $16.49 billion. EPS came in at $5.94, crushing the $5.62 estimate. **Jordan:** Jamie Dimon's team delivered again. Revenue hit $50.54 billion, up 10%, beating estimates by over a billion dollars. And here's the headline within the headline — their traders posted th