Decarbonize Weekly DD007 — The Green Hydrogen Reset: Why 60 Projects Died and What Survives

📺 Decarbonize Deep Dive 007 | ~22 minDEEP DIVE: The Quiet Reset That's Defining the Real Hydrogen EconomyBetween mid-2024 and April 2026, the green hydrogen industry experienced its first real correction. Companies cancelled close to 60 major projects in 2025 alone — more than 4.9 million tonnes per year of would-have-been capacity. BP exited Australia, Oman, and the UK. Air Products halted three US projects. ArcelorMittal walked away despite €1.3B in committed subsidies. Lhyfe suspended a >100 MW project in April 2026.But this is not the death of clean hydrogen. It's the death of speculative clean hydrogen. While the export mega-projects collapsed, FIDs in 2025 actually grew ~20% — on a different shape of project.Key topics covered:• The 60-project cancellation wave: who died and why• The 4 economic gates every hydrogen project must clear (most failed at "bankable offtake")• Why the cost curve disappointed: stack cost-down, balance-of-plant inflation, capacity factor revisions• The survivor pattern — Stegra (€1.4B closed April 2026), Plug Power's Quebec deal, Topsoe SOEC, Sunfire alkaline• The EU Hydrogen Mechanism (April 30, 2026): what it is and why it might actually work• Hy24 quadrupling its Enagás Renovable stake — the PE survivor signal• Why captive industrial use cases (steel, ammonia, methanol, refining) quietly worked while transport and heat didn't• 45V regulatory turbulence, additionality, time-matching: the policy story that broke US economics• Realistic 2030 outlook: 25-40 GW operational vs the 150 GW announced pipeline• 5 things to watch in 2026-2027The hydrogen industry that exists in 2030 will be smaller than the 2022 forecasts suggested but materially more bankable. It is anchored to captive industrial demand, modular sizing, sovereign-backed offtake, and customers who absorb the green premium through their own product price. That is a real, durable, financeable industry — and it's the one that will actually decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors in time to matter.---🔗 Website: decarbonizeweekly.com📧 Contact: [email protected]🎧 Also on Spotify: search 'Decarbonize Weekly'#GreenHydrogen #HydrogenEconomy #ProjectCancellations #BankableOfftake #Stegra #PlugPower #EUHydrogenMechanism #45V #ClimateTech #IndustrialDecarbonization #Decarbonization #DecarbonizeWeekly