Dr. Joel Shapiro | Kellogg School | What an NFL Injury Analysis Can Teach Business About Resilience

A CMO Confidential Interview with Dr. Joel Shapiro, Managerial Economics & Decision Sciences Professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern, formerly Varicent Chief Analytics Officer. Joel discusses his NFL study including why some teams handle injury better then others, the idea of finding variables which can't be seen by the naked eye, and his conclusion that resilience has a lot to do with planning, resource deployment and the foresight to think about potential problems. Key topics include: the importance of back-ups; the ability to find business problems that can be solved with data; and how to use data and AI to predict "bad stuff." Tune in to hear about the "percent cash wasted measure," and how Joel's class beat Las Vegas on predicting last year's NHL playoff teams.**What NFL Injury Data Teaches Business About Resilience — with Joel Shapiro (Kellogg)**Northwestern Kellogg’s Joel Shapiro returns to CMO Confidential to unpack a surprising finding: predicting player injury isn’t a “failed use case” — and the lessons translate directly to how leaders design resilient organizations. We cover the data model behind injury prediction, Joel’s “percent cash wasted” metric, the real effect of injuries on winning (including offense vs. defense), why backups matter, and how to build purposeful resilience across sales, supply chain, and leadership. Plus: a student project that beat Vegas and a fearless (and funny) Super Bowl take. Chapters00:00 Intro — Why this episode matters for executives01:10 Joel’s remit: turning data & AI into business outcomes03:19 Injury prediction isn’t a failed use case05:45 Why the NFL: clean injury data and an 11-year dataset07:32 What the model outputs: games likely to be missed08:51 “Percent Cash Wasted”: paying for injured players10:15 Do injuries really impact winning? The curve is flatter than you think12:19 Offense vs. defense: wasted cash effects aren’t equal13:47 Healthy one year, injured the next: who stays good?14:36 The lever that breaks teams: losing a highly paid QB15:25 Purposeful resilience vs. “toughing it out”16:34 Backups matter — translating roster depth to business18:29 If you can’t prevent every injury, recruit for availability19:17 Business translation: resilience in sales, supply chain, and leadership21:42 Treat resilience as strategy, not back-office insurance24:22 Which companies are structurally resilient (and why scale helps)24:49 Joel’s bold pick: the Bears’ weird start and a playful prediction25:36 Data, betting, and integrity — what changes as information improves27:25 Students vs. Vegas: NHL playoff models that won28:20 How much data it really takes (rows, columns, and what matters)29:54 Wrap and where to find more CMO ConfidentialTagsCMO Confidential, Mike Linton, Joel Shapiro, Northwestern Kellogg, data science, AI, predictive analytics, NFL injuries, sports analytics, resilience, business resilience, risk management, leadership, percent cash wasted, roster construction, backups, quarterback, offense vs defense, supply chain, sales teams, machine learning, predictive modeling, DraftKings, FanDuel, NHL, Kansas City Chiefs, Chicago Bears, C-suite, marketing leadership, podcast, YouTube chaptersSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.