Economic Dumpster Fire - Why the Creative Economy Split in Half (and How to Navigate It)

Episode 34 | November 2025I was in my garage last Tuesday, shooting beef tallow. Yes, beef tallow—jarred cow fat with a marketing department. And while I'm adjusting highlights on solidified animal fat for the fourth time, I'm thinking: I used to shoot for Rolling Stone. What happened?Then my friend Candice texted. An illustrator in St. Louis. I asked how business was going."Everything is a garbage fire out there."And that's when I realized: we're both drowning. But for completely opposite reasons.She doesn't have enough work. I have plenty of work—just the wrong work. And neither of us could shake the feeling that something bigger was happening.So I dug into the data. Economic reports, central bank surveys, and consumer debt studies. And what I found explains why so many freelancers feel like they're either sprinting or sinking right now.The economy didn't just slow down. It split in half.What You'll Learn in This Episode:The Three-Restaurant EconomyWhy Restaurant Two (the middle market) closed and nobody told youWhere the money actually went (and who's still spending)Why some creatives are drowning in commodity work while others have empty calendarsThe Economic Data (Made Human)The US service sector flatlined in September 2025 (ISM hit 50.0)37% of European businesses postponed investment plans84% of people with credit card debt are cutting non-essentialsThe top 20% now account for two-thirds of all consumptionWhat to Actually Do TomorrowHow to audit your clients into three categories (A, B, C)Three questions to ask yourself this weekThe 80/20 split that keeps you saneWhere to find recession-resistant work (even if it's unglamorous)Why Craft Still MattersWhat my daughter Lucy's drawings taught me about showing upMy brother Charlie's legacy (and why it has nothing to do with accolades)Why being strategic doesn't mean becoming cynicalTimestamps:00:00 - Cold Open: Beef Tallow in My Garage08:45 - The Text Message That Changed Everything12:30 - The Three-Restaurant Economy (The Metaphor)18:20 - The Economic Data: What Actually Happened26:15 - Why We're Both Drowning31:40 - Where the Money Actually Is (Three Specific Markets)38:50 - What to Actually Do Tomorrow (Tactical Actions)48:20 - The Productivity Lie (And the Stoic Response)53:10 - The Shadow Question (What Are You Actually Ashamed Of?)58:30 - Why This Still Matters (Lucy, Charlie, and Showing Up)01:06:45 - OutroKey Takeaways:The middle market collapsed. The clients with mid-tier budgets who valued creative work—many of them can't access credit or have cut discretionary spending. That's not a personal failure. That's structural economics.You're either at Restaurant One or Restaurant Three. Commodity work (fast and cheap) or luxury/corporate work (selective and high-end). Restaurant Two is closed.Three sectors are still hiring aggressively: IT (35%), Finance/Real Estate (32%), Healthcare/Life Sciences (28%). Target them.The 80/20 rule saves your sanity: 80% of your energy goes to work that pays bills. 20% goes to work that feeds your soul. Stop trying to make every project be both.Craft matters, even when the client doesn't. Showing up with integrity to unsexy work isn't settling. It's professionalism. And it's what keeps you in the game.Resources Mentioned:Economic Data Sources:ISM Services Index (September 2025)European Central Bank Credit Standards Survey (Q3 2025)Consumer Debt Studies (2025)Strategic Frameworks:Marcus Aurelius on control (Meditations)The 80/20 split for creative sustainabilityThree-category client audit (A/B/C framework)What's Next:If this episode resonated with you, text a fellow creative and ask them: "How are you? Really?" Because the loneliest part of this moment isn't the struggle—it's the belief that you're the only one struggling.And if you want to talk more about navigating the bifurcated creative economy, hit me up on Instagram @patrickfore or email me at [email protected] garbage fire is real. But so are we.About The Terrible Photographer Podcast:This is a show for creative humans navigating the messy reality of making work that matters while also paying rent. We talk about identity, craft, failure, and the absurdity of the creative industry—with radical honesty and zero bullshit.If you're tired of toxic positivity and gear reviews, you're in the right place.More Episodes: http://terriblephotographer.comBook: Lessons From a Terrible Photographer (coming Dec 2025)Credits:Hosted, Written, and Produced by: Patrick ForeMusic: Epidemic SoundRecorded in: San Diego, CaliforniaSupport the show: If this episode helped you, the best thing you can do is share it with another creative who needs to hear it. Word of mouth keeps this show alive.