Economic War Rooms: Modeling Global Conflict and Dutch Inflation

Economic Impact of the Middle East Conflict on the Netherlands: A Rabobank AnalysisExecutive SummaryThe ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses a universal threat to the Dutch economy, with virtually no sector or region remaining unaffected. Analysis by Rabobank Research indicates that even under a "mild" scenario, Dutch inflation forecasts have been revised upward by 0.5 percentage points. The severity of the impact is contingent on the duration of the conflict and the potential for geographic escalation, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz—a transit point for approximately 20% of global oil and gas. While the Netherlands is not currently projected to enter a recession, a major escalation (Scenario 3) could reduce industrial growth by a full percentage point and bring construction growth to a standstill. Businesses are increasingly attempting to mitigate these risks by reducing strategic dependencies, though this resilience is primarily concentrated among larger corporations rather than Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs).