EP 28 | BDC Trust Gap, Carl's Jr. Collapse & The Pitt

Private credit was supposed to be boring. This episode makes the case that boring just got complicated. Jason Sanjana & Kevin Eckhardt open with a cruise recap and the $80 million law firm hire that broke the internet before bringing in Mark Fischer,, Head of Financial Research at Octus (08:17). He breaks down why private credit is facing its first genuine stress test. Not COVID, not rate hikes in isolation, but both cycles hitting at once: floating-rate loans repricing into a distressed environment, dividend coverage cracking, and BDC marks on the same asset sitting 40 points apart depending on who’s holding it. The conversation moves to redemption pressure (22:19), where Blue Owl’s Technology Income Fund absorbed repurchase requests on 40% of outstanding shares and could only honor 5%. Saba Capital has since launched a tender at a 33% discount. Mark stays diplomatic on whether the marks are wrong. The hosts are less diplomatic. From there (31:27), the episode shifts to Friendly Franchisees Corporation, a 65-unit Carl’s Jr. operator in California that just filed for Chapter 11. Owner Harshad Dharod blamed AB 1228, the law that raised the fast food minimum wage to $20. A UC Berkeley study released this month found no net job losses and only minimal menu price increases. Jason and Kevin are unconvinced the law is the villain here. Culture Corner (43:55) covers The Pitt, the HBO Max medical drama that actual ER doctors call the most realistic show they’ve ever seen. The hosts debate whether watching exhausted professionals make life-and-death decisions under institutional pressure hits a little too close to home for two former restructuring lawyers. ----more---- Hosted by Jason Sanjana & Kevin Eckhardt Guest: Mark Fischer (Head of Financial Research, Octus) Produced and Edited by Tanya Hubbard A Production of The Octus Podcast Network (00:36) - Intro and Kirkland’s reported $80M lateral hire (08:04) - Mark Fischer joins: private credit’s first real stress test (13:31) - Dividend coverage, spread compression, and PIK income (19:13) - Software concentration and creative sector categorization (26:06) - Forced selling, portfolio quality, and clearing prices (29:12) - Saba Capital tender and what comes next (33:43) - AB 1228, California minimum wage, and the data (43:56) - Culture Corner: The Pitt Season 2 on HBO Max