EPISODE · Jul 2, 2026 · 24 MIN
Ep. 95: Honest Math on Income — Covered Dividends, Real Yields, and the 20% Trap
from Informed Investing · host Informed Investing
6 dividend/income sources under the honest-math lens (is the payout covered, is the yield real, are you paid from profits or principal). (1) Our PSTL piece: Postal Realty doubled off $13.05 to $24.72, 3.96% yield, ~69% AFFO payout (2026 AFFO $1.40-1.42 vs $0.98 div), +116.65% total vs +46.27% price return = no NAV erosion; beat O (5.22%)/NNN (5.11%)/ADC (4.10%) last year but micro-cap externally-managed USPS bet, momentum unlikely to repeat. (2) Fool 3 no-brainers: ABBV $251, 2.68%, 59% FCF payout, Skyrizi/Rinvoq >$31B by 2027; JNJ $253, 2.06%, 64-yr King, 60% payout; PFE $23.88, 7.20%, HONEST-MATH FLAG dividend exceeded BOTH EPS and FCF last 12mo. (3) ARCC ~10.5% BDC at ~$18.50 (off $24), dividend held while Blue Owl/Golub cut, covered by NII, heavy insider buying. (4) SCHD vs VIG retiree core: SCHD Dow Jones US Div 100, 100 names, 0.06% ER, ~3.28% yield, 13.18% since incep, 25.87% 1yr vs VIG Nasdaq Div Achievers, 331 names, 0.04% ER, 1.47% yield, 10.19% incep, 18.22% 1yr. (5) XQQI NEOS Boosted Nasdaq-100, 19-23% target distribution vs QQQI's ~14%, 0.98% fee, up to 150% notional (50% leverage), Section 1256 tax — leverage cuts both ways. (6) Income-vehicle S-to-F tier ranking: covered-call ETFs vs dividend stocks vs REITs/BDCs/annuities/MLPs.
What this episode covers
6 dividend/income sources under the honest-math lens (is the payout covered, is the yield real, are you paid from profits or principal). (1) Our PSTL piece: Postal Realty doubled off $13.05 to $24.72, 3.96% yield, ~69% AFFO payout (2026 AFFO $1.40-1.42 vs $0.98 div), +116.65% total vs +46.27% price return = no NAV erosion; beat O (5.22%)/NNN (5.11%)/ADC (4.10%) last year but micro-cap externally-managed USPS bet, momentum unlikely to repeat. (2) Fool 3 no-brainers: ABBV $251, 2.68%, 59% FCF payout, Skyrizi/Rinvoq >$31B by 2027; JNJ $253, 2.06%, 64-yr King, 60% payout; PFE $23.88, 7.20%, HONEST-MATH FLAG dividend exceeded BOTH EPS and FCF last 12mo. (3) ARCC ~10.5% BDC at ~$18.50 (off $24), dividend held while Blue Owl/Golub cut, covered by NII, heavy insider buying. (4) SCHD vs VIG retiree core: SCHD Dow Jones US Div 100, 100 names, 0.06% ER, ~3.28% yield, 13.18% since incep, 25.87% 1yr vs VIG Nasdaq Div Achievers, 331 names, 0.04% ER, 1.47% yield, 10.19% incep, 18.22% 1yr. (5) XQQI NEOS Boosted Nasdaq-100, 19-23% target distribution vs QQQI's ~14%, 0.98% fee, up to 150% notional (50% leverage), Section 1256 tax — leverage cuts both ways. (6) Income-vehicle S-to-F tier ranking: covered-call ETFs vs dividend stocks vs REITs/BDCs/annuities/MLPs.
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Ep. 95: Honest Math on Income — Covered Dividends, Real Yields, and the 20% Trap
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