EP026: ($HSY) Hershey’s Sweet Comeback: Historic Cocoa Reversion to Boost Margins

$HSY: Historic Price/Cost Tailwinds as Historic Cocoa Price Spike Reverses 🍫📈Pitch The PM sat down with Mark Rogers (SIGMIT Advisors / Heddy Creek Research) to break down what may be one of the cleanest price-cost setups in consumer staples right now: Hershey ($HSY).After a brutal cocoa inflation cycle crushed margins, cocoa prices are now reversing sharply. The Street has started revising numbers higher — and Mark believes the magnitude of the earnings reset is still under appreciated.📊 The Variant ViewCocoa deflation is flowing into gross margins over time.Pricing increases are sticky giving favorable price/cost.EPS revisions are the key, we think the trend is your friend as cocoa deflation rolls through the PnL.Mark believes $9–$9.50 next year is achievable — and may not be peak.If $HSY earns ~$9–$9.50 and staples trade high-20s multiples, fair value could approach $270–$285 per Rogers.💰 Valuation MathVariant View:Margins could overshoot historical averages as they recover leading to positive revisions. A special thank you to our sponsors Carbon Arc (carbonarc.co) and InSync Analytics Corp. (istari.insyncanalytics.com)Disclosure: Doug still owns $RMCF. Mark sold $HSY after the strong quarter.*Not investment advice. 🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE...Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer