Episode 10: Misunderstanding Probability and Risk

Send us Fan MailApril explains why we are all so bad at determining probability and risk. Well, maybe you're not, but she is. Anyway she talks about death a lot, which is a topic lots of people find interesting; but don't worry because she avoids the gory details. Unless you like the gory details, in which case...sorry about that. Episode 10 Show NotesAn interesting probability calculator: https://www.calculators.org/math/probability.phpMichael Shermer's  article discussing our inability to grasp probabilities: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-our-brains-do-not-intuitively-grasp-probabilities/ Another Shermer article discussing the problem with anecdotal evidence: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-anecdotal-evidence-can-undermine-scientific-results/ Yet another great article about our inability to calculate risk: https://www.cogencyteam.com/news/2018/02/why-are-humans-bad-at-calculating-risk/Why we dislike self-driving cars: https://slate.com/technology/2016/06/research-shows-why-people-are-bad-at-assessing-the-risks-of-self-driving-cars.htmlThe excess deaths during the coronavirus pandemic: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/health/coronavirus-excess-deaths.html Yes, masks work to reduce our risk of Covid-19: https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-preventCDC info on the flu: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm How we either overestimate or underestimate our risk of getting Covid-19, along with lots of other risks we misinterpret: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/coronavirus-risk-interpreter.htmlHere’s the birthday problem calculator. Enjoy! https://sites.google.com/site/craigandera/craigs-stuff/odds-ends/the-birthday-problem-calculatorThe difference between actual causes of death and what's covered in news media: https://ourworldindata.org/does-the-news-reflect-what-we-die-fromA discussion of the difference between “possible” and “probable” on a website for English language learners: https://ell.stackexchange.com/questions/21191/in-simple-words-what-is-the-difference-between-possible-and-probable#:~:text=Possible%20means%20it%20can%20happen,it%20is%20likely%20to%20happenZagorsky’s article about determining “expected value:" https://theconversation.com/how-to-deal-with-lifes-risks-more-rationally-94366