Episode 10: Misunderstanding Probability and Risk

Send a text

April explains why we are all so bad at determining probability and risk. Well, maybe you're not, but she is. Anyway she talks about death a lot, which is a topic lots of people find interesting; but don't worry because she avoids the gory details. Unless you like the gory details, in which case...sorry about that.

Episode 10 Show Notes

An interesting probability calculator: https://www.calculators.org/math/probability.php

Michael Shermer's  article discussing our inability to grasp probabilities: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-our-brains-do-not-intuitively-grasp-probabilities/

 Another Shermer article discussing the problem with anecdotal evidence: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-anecdotal-evidence-can-undermine-scientific-results/ 

Yet another great article about our inability to calculate risk: https://www.cogencyteam.com/news/2018/02/why-are-humans-bad-at-calculating-risk/

Why we dislike self-driving cars: https://slate.com/technology/2016/06/research-shows-why-people-are-bad-at-assessing-the-risks-of-self-driving-cars.html

The excess deaths during the coronavirus pandemic: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/health/coronavirus-excess-deaths.html

 Yes, masks work to reduce our risk of Covid-19: https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

CDC info on the flu: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm

 How we either overestimate or underestimate our risk of getting Covid-19, along with lots of other risks we misinterpret: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/coronavirus-risk-interpreter.html

Here’s the birthday problem calculator. Enjoy! https://sites.google.com/site/craigandera/craigs-stuff/odds-ends/the-birthday-problem-calculator

The difference between actual causes of death and what's covered in news media: https://ourworldindata.org/does-the-news-reflect-what-we-die-from

A discussion of the difference between “possible” and “probable” on a website for English language learners: https://ell.stackexchange.com/questions/21191/in-simple-words-what-is-the-difference-between-possible-and-probable#:~:text=Possible%20means%20it%20can%20happen,it%20is%20likely%20to%20happen

Zagorsky’s article about determining “expected value:" https://theconversation.com/how-to-deal-with-lifes-risks-more-rationally-94366