Episode 11: Sleeper Seats in the House of Delegates

00:00.51Sam ShiraziI'm Sam Shirazi and this is federal fallout the 2025 Virginia elections this episode, we will go over some of the sleeper races in the House of delegates more so on the democratic side. In terms of seats that they are trying to flip and the reason I'm doing this episode is because they have found candidates in all 100 races in the Virginia House of Delegates.00:20.43Sam ShiraziSo that means they're contesting every seat. Obviously, they're not going to win every seat, but I do think it shows that there are people willing to run this year in Virginia, even in seats that are very red.00:35.28Sam ShiraziAnd you know conventional wisdom is that shows enthusiasm that the Democrats are able to find candidates. Now, does it guarantee that they're going to win? No, but I do think it's one thing to look at among many other factors.00:48.21Sam ShiraziAnd another reason I wanted to do this is earlier I had done a podcast on the top battlegrounds in the Virginia House of Delegates, and I missed a few races I wanted to cover, and I just couldn't because I was covering so many other races.01:03.86Sam ShiraziAnd one of them, the seat on the list of sleeper races that are most likely to flip, and again, i don't even think this is a sleeper race because the Democrats have said that they are targeting this seat, and I just failed to mention it on the last podcast, is is the 69th House District.01:19.75Sam ShiraziBut I think it's really interesting to talk about it on this podcast because in 2023, Democrats didn't even contest this seat. So it shows you that what happens when you don't contest seats is you you potentially miss out on flipping seats. Now, realistically, in 2023, I don't think the Democrats were going to win this seat.01:37.00Sam ShiraziBut in 2025, in a different political environment with a candidate, I do think there's a chance this seat flips. So this seat is in the Yorktown area ah ah in Hampton Roads, and it's right next to another district that's competitive that we talked about in the past, which is the 71st district.01:56.42Sam ShiraziAnd the 69th district voted for Trump by less than one point. And the current incumbent is Chad Green. And as I said, in 2023, won... unopposed.02:07.38Sam ShiraziThe Democrats are running a candidate this time, and that is a local pediatrician. His name is Mark Downey. And I should have mentioned this district before because it's a less than one point Trump district. Democrats are targeting it. So I do think this is more of a true battleground district this year as opposed to a sleeper race. But I will talk about it this time just to show you kind of the importance of contesting races and not contesting them.02:32.78Sam ShiraziSo the district, I think it's competitive this year for a couple of reasons. One, just the fact that, you know, this year in Virginia is probably going to lean towards the Democrats. At least that's what it's looking like right now. Obviously, nothing's guaranteed, but but that's what it's looking like.02:47.52Sam ShiraziAnd also the district has big military bases on it. And so if you're seeing some impacts of the federal government changes, this is the type of district lot of military people in the district could be feeling that hit from Washington, DC.03:01.04Sam ShiraziBut I should note one thing. And I visited this district recently because I wanted to go to Yorktown Beach and see it for myself. No, I'm kind of kidding. But I did go to Yorktown Beach, which is a beautiful beach. If you're ever in Yorktown or in that area, go see the beach. I think they've done a really good job with that beach.03:23.84Sam ShiraziBut if you look across the river, There's the York River. There's a bridge that goes over from Yorktown to Gloucester. And Gloucester is a much redder part of Virginia than across the river in York, and the York County. And York County is roughly kind of a leans a little bit towards the Republicans, but roughly a 50-50 county, as is much of that area. And that's why it's a competitive seat, obviously.03:48.78Sam ShiraziBut about 10% of the district are is is across the river in Gloucester, and Gloucester is much redder than the rest of the district. So long story short, I often spend a lot of time thinking about these little nuances in the districts. It's similar to the House District 57 in the Henrico area where Henrico super blue, but it has this red part of Goochland. This is similar where you know most of the district is about 50-50, and then there's this little red part of the district. So It really comes down to, you know, can the Democrats overcome the redness in Gloucester either because of the federal fallout or because it's just such a landslide at the top of the ticket.04:24.27Sam ShiraziNow that's assuming a lot of things. And I should say for this district and the other districts I'm going to be talking about, you know, if it's a close race, I mean, they're not going to flip because these are the types of districts that it really requires a blue wave for there to be a flip in November. And so it's possible that none of these seats flip.04:41.44Sam ShiraziIt's possible maybe one flip. It's also possible on a good night that many of them start flipping, especially if we're starting to see a double digit Democratic win at the top of the ticket, which again, I think is you know not out of the realm of possibility. I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm just saying theoretically it could happen in November, given historical patterns of how these elections turn turn out and that there's a big swing against the party in the White House.05:08.07Sam Shiraziso I spent a little bit more time on the 69th district because I think it's obviously the one that's most likely the flip of the ones I'm going to be talking about today. I will talk about some other districts. I'll go through them a little bit more quickly because I think, you know, these are pretty reached districts for Democrats. But I wanted to mention them because obviously they are contesting all 100 seats.05:28.00Sam ShiraziAnd what are the sleeper races that could be flipping this year in Virginia? And I'm going to basically focus on the districts that Trump won by less than 10 percent, because realistically, I think the maximum that Democrats are going to get are the single digit Trump seats.05:43.57Sam ShiraziOK, so I will talk about a pair of districts in the Virginia Beach beach area. The first one is House District 99. The current incumbent is Republican Anne Farrell Tata.05:56.43Sam ShiraziAnd the Democratic nominee is Kat Porterfield. And this is a district that Trump won by about five points in November. However, in 2023, Tata defeated Porterfield by about 15 points. So we're going to see a rematch. And you saw, obviously, in 2023 that this was not a close race at all, even though in 2024 it was single-digit Trump seat.06:22.20Sam ShiraziAnd I want to talk about this district and its neighboring district, House District 100 in tandem. So let me just talk about House District 100 right now that the current incumbent Republican is Rob Bloxham.06:34.42Sam ShiraziAnd the Democrats are still trying to finalize their nominee. There is someone who has filed on the Democratic side. Rocco Debilis, I'm not sure if he'll end up being the nominee because i I've heard maybe someone else will try to also be the nominee. But long story short, I think the Democrats are going to be able to find a nominee in that district.06:52.41Sam ShiraziI would say that the district is, again, one of these ones that would be potentially competitive. it was less than five points Trump win in 2024 in this district.07:03.43Sam ShiraziBut in 2023, the incumbent Bloxham won by almost 20 points. And so you're seeing these districts where there's a huge difference between the 2023 number and the 2024 number. Why? Because I think there was a lot of voters in these districts that feel comfortable voting for the Republican Party at the state level, but for whatever reason, they're not comfortable voting for Donald Trump in 2024.07:27.44Sam Shirazi And the reason for that, They have a decent amount of college-educated voters who are traditionally Republicans. We've seen across the country college-educated voters becoming more Democratic.07:37.93Sam ShiraziSo you're seeing in these districts, they're starting to trend towards the Democrats because these college-educated voters are moving towards the Democrats and away from the Republicans. And I think, again, if there's a huge backlash either in the suburbs or there's a backlash to all the federal cuts and that's hitting Hampton Roads particularly hard, these are the types of districts on a good night. If there's a huge wave, Democrats might be able to flip because, again, it's single-digit Trump seat.08:04.19Sam ShiraziI think the one challenge Democrats are going to have if they're trying to flip these seats is that there's a this is the type of area where you can see ticket splitting, where maybe someone votes for Spanberger at the top of the ticket, but they like their local delegate. And so the Republican delegates will overperform the top of the ticket.08:20.57Sam ShiraziAnd so while Democrats might have a shot here, particularly if there's a big swing in Hampton Roads, I wouldn't necessarily count on these seats flipping. Now we will go over towards Southside, Virginia, in a seat that will have an open race because the incumbent has retired. So incumbent Republican Danny Marshall, he has decided to retire.08:43.80Sam ShiraziAnd this district voted for Trump by about eight points. And again, this was a district that the Democrats didn't oppose in 2023. So we don't really have a sense of how we would have voted in 2023. I think it's pretty likely that yeah even if a Democrat ran in 2023, the incumbent Republican still would have won this district09:01.17Sam ShiraziBut this time there will be a Democratic nominee because there are two people filing for this seat on the Democratic side. So there will be a primary and there are two Republicans as well running. So I will talk more about the primary in my episode about the primary, which I promise one day i will get to.09:18.82Sam ShiraziBut this is an interesting district. So it is based in Danville. which itself, Danville City, is is somewhat Democratic, but the surrounding rural areas are pretty Republican.09:31.25Sam ShiraziThe district is about 40% African American. And so that's a pretty high number for the Democrats to start with. you know They're going to get a pretty high number And so going to talk about the majority district.09:44.53Sam Shirazithe problem for them is that it's a majority white district this part of virginia has a lot of racialized votinging. It's similar to other parts of the South where most African-American voters are Democrats, most white voters are Republicans.09:58.70Sam ShiraziAnd so you're going need some crossover from the white community for the Democrats to able to flip the seat. Again, perhaps if the environment's right and the Democrats are doing better with white working class voters, this is the type of seat that could flip.10:11.50Sam ShiraziBut again, it's it's a pretty tall order. But keep in mind, though, that Democrats didn't compete in it 2023, and this year they will be competing in it.10:21.14Sam ShiraziI did want to talk about another Southside district. This is House District 83. The current incumbent is Republican Otto Wachsman. This is roughly a Trump plus eight district in 2024.10:34.90Sam ShiraziBut in 2023, the incumbent Republican, he won by almost 17 points. And so you see, again, a type of district where there was a lot of difference between 2023 and 2024.10:49.53Sam ShiraziI would say the reason for the difference in this district is a little bit different. So again, this is a district with a lot of African-American voters, about 41% African-American. I think in 2024, the Democrats did a better job turning out those voters Obviously, on the Democratic side, at the top top of the ticket, you had an African-American woman on the ticket. And so I think that helped Democrats get more of the African-American vote out in 2024.11:14.54Sam ShiraziI think in 2023, that was something the Democrats could have done better in this seat and across Virginia. And I think it's a little bit of an open question this year in 2025. What does the African-American turnout look like?11:26.70Sam ShiraziYou know, there's a possibility that either one or two slots on the Democratic ticket with the lieutenant governor and the attorney general spot, um could be African American nominees for the Democrats.11:38.62Sam ShiraziObviously, the Republicans have an African American woman at the top of the ticket. And so there's a lot of interesting questions about what the turnout will look like specifically in that community. And a lot of these seats that have and not a majority African American, but a decent amount of African American voters. 11:57.41Sam ShiraziI think the question will become can the Democrats turn them out? And in theory, if there's higher turnout than expected among the African-American community, and maybe the working class white vote falls because Trump's not on the ticket, which we've seen in other places where these low propensity Trump voters don't come out in non-presidential elections, the Danville district and then this other Southside district, both of those potentially could flip just depending on the dynamics of turnout And, you know, I think it's still realistically pretty hard for the Democrats to win this seat. But I just wanted to mention some of the dynamic dynamics. And I should say this, you know often in this podcast, I will be focusing on Northern Virginia, Richmond area, Hampton Roads.12:38.05Sam ShiraziYou know, you talk about the suburbs and college educated voters and and all this. I think it's important to keep in mind, Virginia has a lot of different parts to it and there are different dynamics. So Southside Virginia,12:49.20Sam ShiraziThese two districts, their voting patterns are much more similar to other parts of the South. I think, you know, it's just a different type of district and you have to keep that in mind. And so while I think potentially the numbers are there for the Democrats, I just think, and as you've seen in other parts of the South, it's hard for the Democrats to win seats if it's majority white and most of the white voters there are working class voters who were Trump voters. and And typically it's hard for the Democrats, especially these days, where they're not doing well with white working class voters to flip those types of seats.13:24.05Sam ShiraziAll right. So I will talk about a couple other districts that are kind of interesting in that they're all similar. So they're all college towns in their own way. And so I will start off with the 52nd House District.13:35.94Sam ShiraziThis is in the Lynchburg area. The current incumbent is Wendell Walker.13:40.75Sam ShiraziThis is a district that Trump won roughly by nine points. and However, keep in mind the current incumbent, Walker, only won this district by about nine points in 2023.13:51.95Sam ShiraziAnd so that's kind of interesting because it tells you that this type of district... you know, so as we saw in some of the other districts, there were huge swings between 2023 and 2024, but this district didn't see much of a swing and it was basically the same.14:07.07Sam ShiraziAnd I just think there's some interesting dynamics going on. So Lynchburg is kind of a a medium-sized city. So you have more of a professional class in that in that city.14:17.66Sam ShiraziIt's also home to Liberty University. I think a lot of the Republican voters, at least among young people in that city, are students at Liberty. It's kind of an open question mark. Do those students show up in a governor's race this year? And I think the incumbent, Walker, needs some of those students to turn out for him.14:37.84Sam ShiraziAnd so I i just think and it it just has a lot of interesting dynamics for a district like this. And i think, again, On a good night, the Democrats have a chance to to flip this seat, particularly if we're seeing a decent amount of Democratic turnout and then the Republican turnout isn't there.14:56.21Sam ShiraziOkay, let's go to another college district. This is House District 40, and this is in the Salem-Roanoke area. The current incumbent is Republican Joe McNamara.15:07.74Sam ShiraziThe district voted again for Trump by about nine points and 2023,15:14.96Sam ShiraziThe Republican incumbent won by about 19 points. And the reason I say it's a college town. So Roanoke College technically is not in the city of Roanoke. It is based in the city of Salem, which is right next to Roanoke.15:30.34Sam ShiraziSo even though Salem does have this college in it, Salem is generally known to be a little bit more of a red-leaning town as compared to Roanoke. So Roanoke City is a blue city. Salem's known for being more of a red city.15:43.57Sam ShiraziBut obviously you have a college town vibe to Salem to a certain extent. And so I think that's keeping this district competitive. And we'll see again, are are the Democrats able to to flip a seat like this in November?15:58.45Sam ShiraziI will go out to one more college town for our tour of the college towns of Virginia, or at least the red-leaning college town districts in Virginia. So this is House District 34 in the Harrisonburg area, which is home to James Madison University.16:14.37Sam ShiraziThe current incumbent is Republican Tony Wilt. The district was about a seven-point Trump district in 2024. 2023, in twenty twenty three The current incumbent Republican won by about 13 points.16:28.45Sam ShiraziIn this district, it's just straight you know college town versus rural. So if you think about Harrisonburg, where James Madison University is located, ah ah blue college town, lot of students.16:40.15Sam ShiraziThe area around it in the Shenandoah Valley is beautiful. It's a red area. And so it's just a matter of which side is able to turn out more of their base. And I think the interesting thing about this district is the Democrats' chances really come down to if they're able to either register students or get students to show up on Election Day and same day register and get the students to vote. Because James Madison University, it's a pretty big university, basically.17:06.30Sam ShiraziYou would think that the students there tend to lean towards the Democrats. And so I think if the Democrats are able to mobilize students, this is the seat type of seat that could flip.17:16.81Sam ShiraziAnd I should note make a note of this So we talked about three of these college towns that could flip in the reach districts for the Democrats and two of the top battleground districts in the 41st district and then the 71st district district ah where Virginia Tech and William & Mary are located. Those are really going to be top top targets for Democrats.17:38.10Sam ShiraziAnd again, students are going to be really important if they're going to flip those two seats. And I think, you know, in 2024, part of the story was President Trump was able to do better with college students and students and younger people in general than I think most people were expected because generally people think, okay, young people, they tend to be Democrats, but President Trump was able to do better.18:00.43Sam ShiraziAnd I think a lot of those voters were maybe not super engaged and may not have been paying super close attention and maybe voted on the economy or issues like that. And I think to the extent we're seeing voters move away from Trump,18:14.10Sam ShiraziI think those are the type of voters that are going to move away or voters who are really sensitive on the economy. They might have said, well, let's see what President Trump can do. And now obviously they're seeing maybe some of the effects of the federal cuts and the effects of the tariffs. And so those voters might turn away from the Republicans.18:32.77Sam ShiraziAnd so if we take a step back and look at all these districts, which I would say are red leaning districts that the Democrats would really need a good night to be able to flip. you you know How would they be able to do that? Who are they going to be able to to either s flip or or how how is it going to be that they're going to be able to flip these red districts? I think there's two possibilities, as I mentioned earlier.18:53.59Sam ShiraziOne possibility is that their turnout is really just way through the roof and they get closer to 2024 turnout. And then the Republican turnout is way down for whatever reason. And so You basically just have a bunch of Democrats showing up and the Republicans don't show up. And then so a seat that you don't think was going to flip starts to flip. And I think the other possibility or the thing that could happen in combination with that is that the Democrats are able to.19:19.63Sam ShiraziThe Democrats are able to convince some of these Trump voters to switch and vote for the Democrats in this election, not just at the governor's level, but all the way down the ticket. I think relatively that's going to be pretty rare, particularly among, you know, voters that would turn out in a governor but governor's election, because most of the time people these days, it's just hard to get people to switch their votes.19:43.30Sam ShiraziBut in some of these districts, if you have a decent Democratic turnout and you flip some of the people who voted for Trump last November, it doesn't take a whole lot to flip the the district. And, you know, again, i think President Trump, among some of his core base, he still has that support.19:59.36Sam ShiraziWhere you're seeing his approval rating go down is typically with voters who were sensitive on the economy or maybe relatively less engaged. He President Trump did well with those voters.20:10.87Sam ShiraziAnd you're seeing those voters turn away from President Trump now that you know some of the economic hits that have been happening recently, and obviously President Trump is taking the blame for that.20:22.32Sam ShiraziSo I don't want to belabor the point. I do think there's a ah scenario where the Democrats are able to flip at least one of these sleeper seats. But Now, you may be saying, OK, you're kind of getting everyone's hopes up on the Democratic side. You're saying, oh, the Democrats can flip all these seats. I'm not saying that. I just think that you have to think about the possibility.20:42.35Sam ShiraziAnd the reason I say that is both 2017 and 2021. So 2017, 2017, the first Trump administration, Democrats were hoping to flip, you know, maybe a few seats here and there. They were already in a deep hole in the House of Delegates.20:57.05Sam ShiraziThe formal Democratic Party only focused on a few seats and we were hoping to maybe on a good night flip maybe 10 seats. But the Democrats got a real big blue wave in 2017 and they were able to flip 15 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. And I think that was a huge surprise to everyone. And I think that was also ah big wake up call for the Republicans that they were struggling in the suburbs. Most of these districts were in the suburbs where the Democrats were able to flip it.21:23.80Sam ShiraziAnd so I just think you You know, you never know what's going to happen in the House of Delegates, particularly if there are big swings between elections. And the other election I should talk about on the other side is 2021 when the Republicans got a victory. And I think for most of that election, Democrats didn't think that the House of Delegates, which they were in the majority in, was at much risk.21:44.100Sam ShiraziBut then all of a sudden at the end, a few seats flipped that the Democrats weren't expecting to flip. And the Republicans were able to get the majority in the Virginia House of Delegates in 2021. So I do think in these potentially wave elections, there are circumstances where the a lot of seats flip.22:02.01Sam ShiraziThere are unexpected gains on one side. And i think we have to be open to the possibility of that. Realistically, I don't think that's going to happen on the Republican side. Just the reality is, know, I'm not saying it's impossible for the Republicans to win the governor's race, but Even if the Republicans win the governor's race, I mean, we kind of know which seats are going to flip on the Republican side. I think it's going to really be unlikely that they're going to be able to flip more than maybe on a good night, three seats.22:30.67Sam ShiraziWhereas on the republican on the Democratic side, I mean, the the range is so big. You could see Democrats flipping one or two seats if it's a close election. to potentially flipping up to 10 seats or more if it's a really landslide type election.22:46.77Sam ShiraziAnd at this stage, we really don't know. Unfortunately, we haven't gotten many Virginia polls. We don't get ah have have as a good sense of where things are going. The Trump approval looks like it's gone negative and it's especially going to be negative in Virginia. So you would think that leads towards Democrats having a good night.23:04.39Sam Shirazi And again, what does a good night mean the Democrats? Does that mean they win by two points? I mean, but they'll take it. A win's a win.23:11.58Sam ShiraziDo they win by five points, which I think is a solid win? Or the Democrats at the top of ticket with Abigail Spamberger get closer to a 10 point win and a 10 point win. I mean, that's the type of territory where these and unexpected seats could flip.23:25.25Sam ShiraziAnd, you know, it's just so hard to tell right now. And I wanted to use the example of this year. We don't have many examples, you use the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.23:35.42Sam ShiraziWisconsin obviously was very close in 2024. The Republicans with Donald Trump were able to win it at the presidential level by a about one point. But that then again, on the Senate side, the Democrats were able to win it in with Tammy Baldwin. So Wisconsin was very close in 2024, kind of on knife's edge.23:54.89Sam ShiraziBut then the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, we all thought, okay, it's going to be close. It seems like the Republicans are spending a lot of money here. and it's getting a lot of attention. And then the Democrats win that Supreme court race by about 10 points.24:07.33Sam ShiraziAnd so I do think both the Democrats and Republicans have to think about the possibility that this won't necessarily be a super close election. And how do they deal with that? What seats are they going to compete in?24:18.62Sam ShiraziObviously, if you're a Democrat, you don't want to get your hopes up. You don't want to assume you're to You're going to want to play it like it's going to be close. Cause I think that's the safe way to run a campaign. If you're a Republican, you know you never want to say, oh, we're going to lose. We're to throw in the towel. Now you you still have to kind of have hope that you're going to be able to win and that perhaps you're going to be able to save all these seats that you have in the House of Delegates. But you also have to be realistic and say, look, it's getting kind of dicey. yeah These incumbents, we can't really save them. Let's focus on these other incumbents that have a more realistic shot.24:52.61Sam ShiraziAnd the favorite word that you know you hear in midterms, more so for the US House of Representatives is triaging, you know, this race is is a lost cause. Let's just kind stop competing there.25:05.93Sam ShiraziI don't know if the Republicans are going to do that. I think it's very hard to tell. I think theyre they have a lot of incumbents. They want to protect them. the The danger is if you start focusing on the incumbents that seem unlikely to win, you're going to potentially leave these other incumbents out in a in in more Republican districts, but the ones that could be competitive, you could leave them out to dry. so It's hard to tell. i think it's way too early. i didn't want to speculate too much. I just wanted to flag some of these other seats that could be competitive on an interesting night for the Democrats.25:36.72Sam ShiraziAgain, way too early to tell. I wanted to do this podcast because I probably won't be spending too much time on these districts in the future. So I did want to just mention them right now. And I also but just wanted to talk about how you know the Democrats have fielded 100 candidates in all the seats.25:52.82Sam ShiraziAnd if you think about 2023, two of the districts I talked about, the Democrats didn't feel the candidate. So it just gives you a sense of, you know, what it can look like in a different cycle. Seats that you didn't think were going to go be competitive can all of a sudden be on the board, particularly if you have a candidate running. So anyways, I think there'll be a lot of interesting things to talk about this year in Virginia. These House of Delegates districts don't always get as much attention as the other ones, but I did want to mention them.26:18.72Sam ShiraziSo I hope everyone found that interesting. I will, I promise, do a podcast at some point on the House of Delegate primary. So I did want to wait a little bit closer to the primary date to do that. But that's also in the works. So anyways, I appreciate everyone listening. And this has been Federal Fallout.26:36.02Sam ShiraziAnd I will join you next time. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com