Episode 139: The German-Polish Relationship amid Changing European Security Challenges

What this episode covers

The European security landscape is shifting. The United States is pressuring Europe to manage the defense of its region, and many NATO allies have growing doubts about the long-term reliability of the U.S. security guarantee, even as Russia continues aggression at NATO’s doorstep. German Chancellor Merz has articulated the goal for the Bundeswehr to be the strongest military in Europe. How does this ambition sit with one of Germany’s most important European partners—Poland? Justyna Gotkowska joins The Zeitgeist to discuss how Poland is adjusting to these changes. She discusses Polish views on German-Polish relations, how Poland is reassessing its security partnerships, and the fault lines within Polish defense and strategic thinking. Host Jeff Rathke, President, AGI Guest Justyna Gotkowska, Deputy Director and Head of the Security and Defence Department, Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) Transcript Jeff Rathke I’m very pleased to have our listeners with us for the first episode of The Zeitgeist in 2026. Thanks for joining us. And today we have as our guest, Justyna Gotkowska. Justyna, thanks for being with us. Justyna Gotkowska Jeff, thank you for having me. Jeff Rathke Justyna Gotkowska, for those of you who don’t know her already, is the deputy director of the Center for Eastern Studies, a Polish think tank that is focused on security and defense and other issues related to Central and Eastern Europe. She is also an expert on German defense and security policy, and I thought this would be a great opportunity for us to talk about German-Polish relations, how they are evolving, and what that means in the context of the challenges for European and transatlantic security. If we start from that point, maybe just 60 seconds to set the stage. We are speaking on January 9, and I think it’s important to point out the date, because so much has been happening already this year. We have, just in the past week, seen the U.S. seizure of Venezuelan President Maduro and uncertainty about the way forward in Venezuela. We’ve seen a ramping up of the Trump administration’s pressure on Denmark about the status of Greenland and Donald Trump’s desire to incorporate Greenland into the United States. We’ve seen a meeting this week in Europe of the so-called Coalition of the Willing, which involved an announcement by the United Kingdom and France about their willingness to station their armed forces in Ukraine after a settlement or a ceasefire in that conflict, and Germany being willing to be part of that, although at least at this stage not with German troops in Ukraine. And we’ve seen solidarity from the six leading European countries, not only the UK, France, Germany, but also Poland, Spain, and Italy, solidarity with Denmark about the fact that Greenland’s status could only change with the consent of the people of Greenland and Denmark and that Greenland is part of Denmark. And then lastly, perhaps, the meeting of the so-called Weimar Triangle, Poland, France, and Germany, this week, a meeting that took place in Paris among the foreign ministers, and a reminder of the importance of those three in setting Europe’s course. Oh, and by the way, just this week also, the EU decided to move ahead with their free trade agreement with Mercosur, which would create the largest free-trade zone in the world, although one where there was some divided opinion, including Poland, which was overruled or outvoted in supporting that agreement. With the Trump administration pursuing its interests ever more vigorously and audaciously, you might even say, this activist phase, what does this mean for Poland, for Europe, and in particular, Poland’s relations to its key European partners? That’s where we stand.