Episode 28: Sluggish Job Numbers and How Close Is the Election Really?

Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia elections.This episode, we will first go over some sluggish job numbers that came out on Friday, and then we will look at question of how close really is the Virginia governor's election, given some recent polls and just everything going on in Virginia and across the country.So first, in terms of the numbers of jobs, so I did a podcast a few weeks ago when there was a weak jobs report last month, and that caused President Trump to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.00:40.51Sam ShiraziAnd so now we have a new Bureau of Labor Statistics, and there was some concern that maybe the books would be cooked with the new head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but It doesn't seem like that really happened because the August jobs report were was also not great.00:56.24Sam ShiraziSo according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in August, there were 22,000 new jobs created, which was much weaker than expected. And then actually there there were revisions in June where, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in June, there was actually a net loss of 13,000 jobs.01:14.60Sam ShiraziAnd so clearly there's been a01:18.80Sam Shirazitrend where the jobs have been going not in a great direction, weak growth. And i think that has been reflected in Virginia, where I mentioned this before, over the past year, the unemployment rates since January has been going up in Virginia.01:36.88Sam ShiraziLikely a big part of that has been the cuts to the federal government, which has disproportionately hit Virginia. So big picture, not a great jobs number in August. And I think there's some concerns that the overall economy is not doing too great. I think Democrats would certainly point the finger at President Trump and specifically the tariffs for basically01:58.85Sam Shirazicreating uncertainty in the economy and then also causing prices to stay high. i think Republicans, you know, they have for a while been trying to pretend like the economy was great. But I think with these numbers and given that there was a different head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, they kind of had to admit things aren't going that great.02:16.71Sam Shiraziyou know As we discussed previously, President Trump has been pointing the finger at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates fast enough, according to President Trump. I think this will likely lead to interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.02:32.36Sam ShiraziSo that's something that might be coming down right before the election. But overall, you know, I've not always talked about the economy, but I've mentioned in the background, the economy is certainly top of mind for a lot of voters, particularly voters who aren't living and breathing politics every single day.02:50.13Sam Shirazii mean, they are not following the nuances of everything Trump's doing in D.C. They're not following the nuances of everything the candidates are doing on the campaign trail. What they are following is probably the prices of the grocery store.03:01.86Sam Shiraziand whether they have a job or whether they're nervous about losing their job. And so I think those things are certainly top of mind for most voters who are not living and breathing politics every day. You know, I mentioned that a little bit when I talked about the whole controversy about the sign in Arlington.03:18.75Sam Shiraziknow, the Republicans tried to make a big deal about that. I mean, I think it got a certain amount of traction. But at the end of the day, like, I don't know if voters are living and breathing this stuff every day and following the nuances of that story, as opposed to something like the economy, which just generally dominates people's lives because every day they're having to think about paying for things.03:38.77Sam ShiraziSo um I think this is all like a backdrop to the election. Virginia has been disproportionately hit by some of the federal cuts and the federal job losses. There have been a lot of cuts to the federal government in terms of the payrolls. So federal jobs have been certainly going down since January.03:57.04Sam ShiraziAnd again, I mentioned this in my last podcast, At the end of of this month, the people who took the Doge fork in the road offer are going to no longer be receiving paychecks from the federal government.04:09.62Sam ShiraziIn this report, jobs report, they are still counted as employed. And so I think that kind of artificially boosts job numbers even more. at the end of this month, they are no longer going to be getting paychecks from the federal government. Some of them are going to retire. Some of them are going to get private sector jobs, but presumably some of them may be added to the unemployment rolls, or at least they're going to not have a job.04:30.53Sam ShiraziAnd so I think it's something to really think about in terms of how much of this is going to impact the Virginia elections. I think There have been Virginia elections in the past where basically the economy dominates the entire election.04:45.45Sam ShiraziThe most recent example of that was probably 2009. two thousand and nine We were in the middle of the Great Recession. Things were not great in Virginia and across the country. and that was basically what decided that election. And generally that helped the Republicans because President Obama was in the White House and people didn't feel like the economy was recovering fast enough. So they gave Governor Bob McDonald a chance.05:07.25Sam Shiraziyou know, that election was purely referendum on the economy and President Obama's performance. I think this time, given that there's all this stuff going on in DC, and I think the Republicans are trying to shift the focus to some of these social issues, I don't think this election is purely going to be a referendum on the economy unless the next two months something really crazy happens and the economy totally collapses.05:29.88Sam ShiraziI think it's one of many different things that are going on right now. And you could argue it's probably the most important even though it doesn't get as much of the attention. I mean, I think some of these more flashy things grab the attention from both sides. So the Republicans, we talked about the trans issue. They're trying to spend a lot of time talking about trans issue.05:51.67Sam ShiraziI mean, Democrats nationally like to spend a lot of time talking about what President Trump's doing, some of the things that they don't like that he's doing. For example, what happened in D.C. and the National Guard coming into D.C.,06:02.22Sam ShiraziBut at the end of the day, as I mentioned, I mean, maybe the economy is really the most important story, even though it usually gets the least amount of coverage, because frankly, you know, it's it's not super exciting talking about unemployment numbers and jobs numbers as compared to some of these other issues.06:19.08Sam ShiraziAnd so I don't think it always gets the same amount of press, but it really is, I think, something that in 2024 was important. The Democrats learned the hard way that You can't just spin your way out of a ah tough economy or you can't spin your way out of the numbers.06:34.36Sam ShiraziAnd frankly, in 2024, the but macroeconomic numbers were looking better. Inflation had come down. Unemployment rate was coming down. So you could argue 2024, the economy is actually stronger than it is in 2025. And so if the Democrats paid a price for the economy in 2024, you might argue that the Republicans are going to pay a price for the economy in 2025 because now they're in charge.06:57.70Sam ShiraziSo I just set all that up because i think both in the political pundit space and also in the news media space, there's less attention to the economy than there probably should be.07:09.54Sam ShiraziAnd, you know, the reality is the people who... Live and breathe politics and live and breathe the news typically are more educated, higher income people. And so they aren't necessarily as concerned about some of these economic issues. But I think the reality is prices are still high.07:26.35Sam ShiraziNow the job market is not great. And people who are not super politically engaged feeling the hurt to a certain extent. They were for feeling it in 2024. I think that's what helped President Trump win in 2024. And I imagine they're still feeling it in 2025. And I think if you're kind of a middle of road voter who may have voted for Trump,07:46.51Sam ShiraziBut this year you feel like things aren't getting better or you might be willing to give the Democrats a chance. I think that's the kind of territory where Democrats have the opportunity for potentially more of a blue wave if there are voters who are basically switching from Trump voters to Democratic voters. I don't know how much that's going happen because, frankly, there's so much political polarization these days.08:34.32Sam ShiraziSo having covered that topic, I wanted to talk about the issue of how close is this election? Because in July, it seemed like the Democrats were on track to win, the Republicans were panicking.08:48.02Sam ShiraziI think August, you could argue, was a better month for the Republicans, partly because they were able to get some headlines, partly because it seems like their base is more energized. And so I think the Republicans are certainly trying to push this narrative that, oh, the race is close and we're not that far behind and we can still win this thing.09:06.45Sam Shiraziand you know It's an open question how much the race has fundamentally shifted from July to August. I mean, there have probably been some changes on the margins, but you know elections, as I said, are big shifts. And one month, unless something really crazy or dramatic happens that's really a national level story, I don't know if it's enough to really change an election's trajectory.09:31.44Sam ShiraziAnd I think... you know One thing that was interesting is we got another poll, and I wanted to kind of go over this poll. It was by ah ah pollster called SoCal. and They're not necessarily the most high-profile pollster. They're a newer poster pollster.09:48.07Sam ShiraziIn 2024, to be perfectly honest, I was a little bit skeptical because I saw them putting out polls, and I hadn't really ever heard of them. But I went back and looked.09:56.49Sam ShiraziMost of their 2024 polls at the end were pretty on the money. So if you're looking at just 2024 performance, I would say SoCal did pretty well. Now, obviously, they could have been lucky in 2024. It's possible that they will not be right this year.10:10.20Sam ShiraziBut they did put out a Virginia poll. And the other thing that was interesting about this poll was it was sponsored by a Republican leaning group. So the Republican leaning group is the Virginia project. They got the money to sponsor the poll and SoCal did the poll.10:25.72Sam ShiraziNow, credit to SoCal, they did not necessarily, in my opinion, try to cook the books. It looks like they put out a poll that was not super favorable to the party that was sponsoring them.10:36.88Sam ShiraziSo credit to them, because i think some pollsters would either maybe not kill the poll or they would just you know try to cook the books to maybe get a more favorable outcome. But looking at these numbers, i mean, these aren't great numbers for the Republicans. So I'll go through the SoCal poll.10:50.89Sam ShiraziFor governor, it had Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger at 53 percent. For Lieutenant Governor Winston Meryl Sears, she was at 41 percent.11:01.59Sam ShiraziLieutenant Governor Democratic nominee Gizal Hashmi was at 46 percent. John Reed, the Republican nominee, was at 41 percent. For Attorney General, the Democratic nominee, Jay Jones, was at 46 percent. And the incumbent Republican, Jason Meares, was at 41 percent.11:19.10Sam ShiraziAnd then looking at some ah other numbers in this poll, they did a generic ballot for the House of Delegates. The Democrats were at 50% and the Republicans were at 40%. And then finally, they had a Trump approval in Virginia.11:31.38Sam ShiraziTrump was at 54% disapproved, 38% approved. Now, frankly, this was like, in my opinion, a little bit... better than I expected for the Democrats, particularly from this pollster and particularly from the organization sponsoring it. And I think in some ways it was a reality check for the Republicans because I'm guessing the group that sponsored this poll and the Republicans were hoping this would show a close race and it really didn't, especially at the top of the ticket with Spanberger up by 12%, and she's at So, i mean,12:02.96Sam Shiraziwhen you're at that level of support if all the undecideds go to Earl Sears, I mean, the Democrats are still winning this pretty easily. So I think that poll was a little bit of a gut check. I also want to mention this odd thing that John Reed put out. I mean, i honestly don't know really what he was talking about, but it got a little bit of press and i just thought it was kind of interesting that he would release this thing. So John Reid I don't think it was meant to be public, but was picked up by a news organization and they reported this polling memo that John Reid put out. And according to John Reid, his race was tied 43%, 43%. But the same polling memo said that12:45.29Sam ShiraziWinsome is down 11 points on the gubernatorial ballot and Meares is down six on the attorney general ballot. Now I really have no idea. He didn't release the poll. ah ah kind of think this was maybe the coefficient poll and John Reed was playing around with some of those numbers to get that combination of results. But I mean, according to John Reed, Winsome Earl Sears is down 11, which would be similar to the SoCal poll.13:08.93Sam ShiraziAnd I'm not sure why John Reed is super happy about that because I think if Winston Merrill Sears is down 11. I'm pretty sure John Reed is also in trouble. So I thought that was interesting because it was more of a reality check type number.13:22.48Sam Shiraziyou know And again, i don't and don't necessarily believe that the lieutenant governor's race is tied if Winston Merrill Sears is down 11. But long story short, I mean, these poll numbers that have been thrown out there, i mean, they're not showing a super close race.13:36.58Sam ShiraziAnd I think, you know, there' there's often in these types of elections, a a back and forth type effect where the Republicans want to say, oh yeah, we're up and we're doing well and we're not that far behind. And then some more polls come in and kind of show a different type of reality and the Republicans get a little bit of a reality check.13:57.87Sam ShiraziYou know, my my gut is telling me that this is still not a blowout type territory, at least not yet. And I think the economy is the big wild card, as I discussed. And I think if the economy keeps getting worse, closer and closer to Election Day, and it's people are not happy with the state of the economy, I think that's where it could go into blowout territory. I think we're still at a place where Democrats have an advantage.14:21.47Sam ShiraziI don't think it's blowout territory, but it's also not and the type of territory where it's super easy for the Republicans to come back. So we'll just have to kind of wait and see how we get more polls and how things are playing out.14:34.11Sam ShiraziAnd I guess One thing I should also mention about the kind of Republican ecosystem in this election, i think part of the reboot strategy was to give people hope that Winston-Merle Sears could win, because if in July you get all these pieces saying Winston-Merle Sears is doomed, that's not super great for your base and doesn't really motivate them to come out and vote.14:55.60Sam ShiraziAnd so I think part of the reboot strategy in August was to tell people, yes, Winston-Merle Sears can win. not that She's not that far behind. And you know you have to kind of say that if you're a campaign hoping to win,15:06.86Sam ShiraziBig question mark in my mind is, you know how many people is that reaching and how truthful is that or how grounded in reality is that? And I do think there's a risk for the Republicans of what was described as Twitter is not real life during the previous version of Twitter. So the previous version of Twitter before it was bought by Elon Musk, as I mentioned before, was more of a liberal leaning organization, or at least the people on Twitter, I would say, were more liberal.15:37.35Sam ShiraziAnd so there was this phenomenon called Twitter is not real life, where there'd be kind of more progressive type things being discussed on Twitter that might be a little bit detached from what's going on in the real world.15:50.99Sam ShiraziAnd so just because you're seeing one thing on Twitter doesn't necessarily mean that's what's going on in the real world. And I think that was part of what made have made Elon Musk upset at Twitter and made him want to buy Twitter and change Twitter. So he bought Twitter.16:04.94Sam Shirazidid a bunch of things, partly that drove away a lot of liberal people, and then partly that brought on a lot more conservative and right-leaning people onto Twitter. So I think now Twitter or X is a more conservative, right-leaning type social media platform.16:21.94Sam ShiraziAnd I think there is this opposite effect where the the Twitter is not real life still exists, but it's on the Republican side, where the Republicans are seeing this thing over and over Twitter,16:33.42Sam Shirazitheir social media circles and they think that's what's going on in the real world. know For example, we talked about the sign in Arlington. I think that did get off Twitter. i did I do think that did get local media and even national media coverage. So I don't want to pretend like that was just a Twitter story. But if you were on Twitter, you know you would think the entire Virginia governor's election is about the sign in Arlington.16:54.11Sam ShiraziAnd I think the reality is most voters probably don't even know that happened. And there was ah CNN interview that Winston Merle Sears did in the last week. And I thought, you know, honestly, I think she did better than she did in her previous CNN interview. And I think part of her reboot has probably been to give get her a little bit better in front of the media because she had a previous interview on CNN where she really stumbled over the questions about the federal cuts.17:20.78Sam ShiraziThis time, I think she did a better job. But She did bring out this sign that said something, I think, along the lines of, you know, water fountains are for everyone. And while I think most people would agree with that statement, it's also a very Twitter-specific reference, and you have to be very online to really even understand what she's talking about.17:41.96Sam ShiraziSo I do think there's a risk on the Republican side that if they are kind of hyper focused on this trans stuff and they're so focused on what's going on in Twitter that they're missing kind of the big picture stuff in this election, which is more about the economy, the federal cuts, people stuff, frankly, like most you know average voters care about more than you know the latest thing that's on Twitter. And like believe me, as If you probably know, I'm on X a lot. I spend time on social media. That's where I get a lot of my information. I think there's a lot of positive things about social media. But I do think the risk with social media sometimes is you get into your own echo chamber and you don't really understand the average voter is going through. And I think the Democrats, to a certain extent, found that out when know they thought in 2024, President Trump, he's a danger to this country, according to Democrats.18:35.41Sam ShiraziThey couldn't imagine anyone voting for him, but the average voter was just really worried about perhaps the economy, and they thought President Trump would give them a better option. Now fast forward to 2025, you know, economy is little bit shaky, but if the Virginia Republicans are doing is spending all day on Twitter posting about trans stuff, I mean, I don't know if that's necessarily going to be a super...18:58.24Sam Shirazia compelling message to the average voter who's maybe struggling and trying to figure out how to keep their job or put food on the table. So all that's to say is like, I think there is this distinction between the super engaged voter and then the average voter.19:13.97Sam ShiraziAnd I get that you have to get your super engaged voters excited about this election. i get that some of the things that the Republicans are doing with the trans stuff probably helps with that.19:24.64Sam ShiraziBut I also get that you have to reach the voter in the middle. And I'm not quite sure what the Republican strategy is to reach the voter in the middle. I think they've to a certain extent, they've taken care of their base excitement problem.19:36.32Sam ShiraziI think their next problem, which I don't know if they're going to turn to, is reaching the voter in the middle and trying to convince them that maybe they they will be better for their pocketbook. And I don't really see any attempt do that other than you know talking about some of these social issues.19:52.57Sam ShiraziAnd so for all that to say is you know the question of how close is the election, I think the polls show that it, that it might be a little bit closer than we thought in July, but it's not necessarily like a total game changer since July.20:07.28Sam Shiraziand I think the thing to keep ah close eye on as the election gets closer and closer is is Earl Sears just getting base consolidation at this point where she'll get up to like um, or is she going to be able to convince anyone in the middle to vote for her with some of these issues?20:22.72Sam ShiraziAnd I think, um, I think the base consolidation is getting there for Earl Sears. I'm just not super convinced at this stage that the voter in the middle is getting there for her. And I think this poll from SoCal was interesting because, again, it shows that she's not able to kind of break through this ceiling that Virginia Republicans sometimes have around 43 percent then 45 percent. long story short.20:46.100Sam Shirazilong story short I hope we get more polls. I hope we get more high-quality polls. I'm trying to keep an open mind. i don't I think the Republicans are probably in a little better shape than they were in July, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to win the election. And I think in July, they were in pretty bad shape. So I think just because they're doing a little bit better this will go-round doesn't necessarily mean...21:08.69Sam ShiraziThings have totally fundamentally changed, which I think if you're a Republican and you're seeing things a little bit better, you might think that it's a total game changer right now. But I just don't know if that's where we are. And, you know, I should say i wanted to kind of do this.21:22.36Sam Shiraziepisode to just kind of touch base, see where we are, because the next few weeks are going to be really busy. Start of early voting is going to be really interesting. I'm going to go through a lot of just technical stuff, lot of numbers.21:34.55Sam ShiraziThis is more kind of to see where we are right after Labor Day. And I hope people find it interesting. We'll see how the final two months of the campaign play out. I think it's going to be It's going to be busy. It's going to be really interesting. I appreciate everyone who's been listening. If you find it interesting, feel free to send it to people who are interested in Virginia elections.21:53.57Sam ShiraziLet your friends know about it. Do a rating. I think that all helps get the word out about the podcast. I think the next two months are going to be the... the payoff. you know We've been doing this whole election thing all year, and sometimes it's been slower, sometimes it's been busier, but the last two months are going to be really intense, and I think it's going to be a lot of fun to follow everything that's been going on. So I appreciate everyone listening. This has been Federal Fallout, and I'll join you next time. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com