Episode 33: Treasury at 4.28% — Why Stability Beats Rate Cuts

Welcome back to What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E. — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Wednesday, February 4th, 2026. Today we're tracking the 10-year Treasury and what it signals for CRE deal flow.🔥 What's Hot — Stability Unlocking Deals: 10-year Treasury at 4.28% as of today — ticking up slightly but still stable. Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at January 28 meeting after three consecutive cuts in late 2025. Key signal: Stability is the story — yield holding in 4.25-4.30% range provides predictability. Fed Chair Powell says economy on "firm footing" and rates "currently appropriate." CRE transaction velocity picking up: the math is working again with stable rates. Cap rate spreads remain attractive: 2.29% average spread vs 10-year Treasury (above 2.15% historical average). Multifamily and industrial leading demand with stable rate environment.❄️ What's Not — Rate Cut Expectations Fading: Market now pricing in just ONE rate cut for 2026 — down from two projected last month. Two Fed governors (Miran and Waller) dissented, wanted another 25bps cut — signals internal tension. Extended pause risk: next FOMC meeting March 17-18, no cuts expected until at least mid-year. Higher-for-longer hitting floating rate debt hard, especially 2021-2022 vintage deals. Office and retail most exposed: 78bps cap rate movement for every 100bps Treasury move. Industrial only 41bps sensitivity — huge divergence in rate risk across sectors.💡 Investor Takeaway: At 4.28%, the math works for quality assets with strong fundamentals. Underwrite conservatively — don't bank on rate cuts to bail out your deal. Industrial and multifamily remain most insulated from rate volatility. Office and retail carry highest rate sensitivity risk. Dry powder ready? Opportunities emerging as stability returns.Thanks for tuning in. See you tomorrow!Don't forget to Like, Share and Subscribe!Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #RealEstateInvesting #10YearTreasury #InterestRates #FederalReserve #CapRates #Multifamily #Industrial #RealEstateMarket #PropertyInvesting #FOMC #RealEstate2026 #InvestorTips #CREInvesting #RealEstateNews #MarketUpdate #TreasuryYield #RateWatch #WealthBuilding]]>