Episode 74: The Real Problem With Texas Land Deals

In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, brothers Tom Dosch and Tim Dosch are joined by partner Tripp Rich for a cross-market conversation about the common questions every landowner and developer is asking right now. With debt coming due, construction pricing still elevated, and multifamily rents soft across the state, a growing number of sellers are finally facing reality.The hosts break down what's happening in Dallas, Houston, and Austin, from the 30 to 40 stalled multifamily sites in Central Texas to the infill pricing declines in Houston and the expiring land loans in DFW. They discuss why developers who bought at the peak are now sitting on properties they can't build, and why the optimism that carried through 2023 and 2024 has faded.The episode also covers creative exit strategies such as selling to tax credit developers, transferring plans, and finding stronger sponsors. They explore the psychology of loss aversion that keeps bad deals from trading, plus a hypothetical $50 million land investment question with answers unique to each market.Tune in for a boots-on-the-ground look at where Texas land stands in 2026, and why the best investors are the ones who can admit a mistake, take the win or the haircut, and move on to the next deal.Key TakeawaysLand values are flat or declining across Dallas, Houston, and Austin. The post-2023 rebound never arrived.Developers who bought at the peak now face expiring debt. Austin alone has 30 to 40 stalled multifamily sites.Stronger sponsors can sometimes buy and build what original owners cannot. Selling to tax credit developers is another creative exit.Developers make terrible sellers. They demand terms they would never accept as buyers.For $50 million: urban infill in Austin, north suburbs in Dallas, or Waller corridor in Houston.Industrial and data center sites are the most compelling use cases due to AI demand, though power remains a multi-year challenge.The best investors live in reality, admit losses, take fair offers, and move on.In This Episode:[00:00] Introduction [00:43] Longevity habits and health misconceptions[02:33] What studies say about living longer[04:23] Strength training versus cardio debate[10:33] Shifting back to the Texas land market[10:46] The growing debt pressure in Dallas[13:49] What Houston and Austin developers are facing[19:02] Creative ways developers are exiting deals[21:01] Why “plans in hand” can complicate sales[25:10] Where the team would invest $50 million today[26:38] Urban infill versus suburban growth opportunities[27:17] Why DFW core areas still look attractive[28:51] Houston infill opportunities and the Waller corridor[33:59] Industrial growth, AI, and data centers[36:47] Stalled projects, sewer issues, and stuck deals[38:24] When to hold land and when to cut losses[41:23] Why some sellers struggle with market reality[45:02] Emotion, ego, and loss aversion in real estate[49:58] Taking wins early and recycling capital wisely[54:27] Final thoughts and closing remarks Resources and LinksPodcastTexas Land Guys Podcasthttps://dmre.com/Tripp Richhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/tripp-rich-52b35b60https://dmre.com/https://ascentinv.com/https://100xharvest.org/Tom Doschhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/https://dmre.com/https://ascentinv.com/https://100xharvest.org/Tim Doschhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-dosch-67a07899https://dmre.com/https://ascentinv.com/https://100xharvest.org/