Episode 75: Inside a 120-Acre Texas Development Deal

In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, brothers Tom Dosch and Tim Dosch sit down with Zach Johnston, a multifamily development veteran who has seen it all from the gritty early days of student housing to the capital-constrained reality of Texas development in 2026. Zach shares his unique journey, beginning as a college leasing agent thrown into the chaos of a 1,000-unit turnover, through 22 years at Fairfield, and now into his current role at Endeavor, where he focuses on attainable wood-frame development in Dallas and beyond.The conversation spans the post-COVID optimism that never fully materialized, the brutal reality of raising equity in 2024 and 2025, and how Zach finally got a deal across the finish line in Corinth. The hosts and Zach dig into the major Texas markets: why Houston remains misunderstood and "scary" to outside capital, how Austin's oversupply of concessions has changed the game, and where Dallas suburbs like McKinney still offer compelling opportunities despite headwinds.They also explore the psychology of land sellers who refuse to accept lower values, the challenge of analyzing future supply pipelines, and why some entitled sites are essentially unbuildable even if the land is free. Whether you're a developer, landowner, or capital partner, this episode offers a boots-on-the-ground look at who is actually building in Texas right now, and why.Key TakeawaysHouston's real estate market is challenged by perceptions of high supply and low barriers, but benefits from a diversified economy and strong population/job growth.Investor sentiment is cautious, influenced by legislation (SB 840), zoning, and supply concerns.Transition from student housing to market-rate multifamily development is driven by risk, liquidity, and market dynamics.Large-scale projects (e.g., Corinth) require trust and flexibility between developers and landowners due to complex infrastructure and coordination needs.Existing assets are not selling due to reduced values and the need for rent recovery; JV deals are rare, with mezzanine financing filling gaps.Supply analysis is complex and subjective; a stoplight system (red/yellow/green) is used to categorize potential sites.Over-informing investors and detailed site-specific analysis are crucial for successful decision-making in a high-supply environment.In This Episode:[00:00] Why Houston works[00:27] Supply fears and perception[01:58] Podcast intro [07:04] Doing deals nationwide[07:44] Student housing origin story[08:33] The turn disaster[11:21] From ops to development[16:54] Recession and consolidation[19:25] Pivot to Texas market rate[22:41] Houston deals recap[28:11] Land deals without cash flow[28:25] Leaving Fairfield for Endeavor[31:02] Building a new platform[37:36] Optimism that never came[38:59] Corinth deal breakthrough[40:21] Master plan reality check[49:42] Rates and market outlook[53:16] DFW supply and absorption[54:17] Houston and submarket picks[1:00:21] Barriers to entry in Pearland and Friendswood[1:00:52] Why distressed land isn't coming [1:04:07] Celina, Melissa, and the problem of 10,000 planned units that may never come[1:04:59] The stoplight system for analyzing supply[1:06:27] Over-informing investors vs. under-informing them[1:07:48]  OutroResources and LinksPodcastTexas Land Guys Podcasthttps://dmre.com/Zach Johnstonhttps://www.endeavor-re.com/about/team/zach-johnston/https://www.endeavor-re.com/Tom Doschhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/https://dmre.com/https://ascentinv.com/https://100xharvest.org/Tim Doschhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-dosch-67a07899https://dmre.com/https://ascentinv.com/https://100xharvest.org/