Erich Schaffer: “Water Vapor Feedback, Part Two” | Tom Nelson Pod #406

Erich Schaffer critiques the “super greenhouse effect” and argues that tropical outgoing longwave radiation stays flat mainly because tropospheric temperature is sluggish relative to surface temperature, not because water vapor amplifies greenhouse trapping. He says regional and seasonal proxies for water vapor feedback are invalid (citing admissions by Ramanathan/Inamdar and Dessler et al.) and claims interannual proxy results are distorted by aspect-ratio choices and improper OLS regression, advocating TLS or rotated-benchmark methods. Reanalyzing published plots (Spencer, Lindzen-Choi, Chung, Andy May), he concludes water vapor plus lapse rate implies strong negative feedback and low ECS (~1 K). He also alleges data “fudging” and broader scientific incompetence.00:00 Super Greenhouse Effect02:20 OLR Calculations Explained03:28 Troposphere Sluggishness05:32 Ramanathan Admission10:23 Feedback Breakdown Math12:37 Two Proxies Debunked14:05 Revisiting Interannual Proxy16:02 Bad Regression Plotting17:16 Aspect Ratio Distortion23:45 OLS vs TLS Regression30:53 Negative Feedback Emerges33:22 Spencer Regression Mystery37:45 Lindzen Choi Critique41:03 Fixing Lindzen Plot51:17 Recent Andy May Example53:21 Rotate Plot Method55:19 Benchmark Slope Trick57:38 Questionable Outliers01:01:26 Proxies Fall Apart01:02:22 Lapse Rate Physics01:05:45 Tropical Hotspot Feedback01:11:10 AR6 Codependency Critique01:14:24 MODTRAN Water Vapor Test01:19:44 Emission Altitudes Explained01:25:22 Net Feedback and ECS01:27:17 Blunders and Sociology01:40:54 Q&A and Takeaway01:44:44 Bonus Coal Math Error01:47:42 Wrap UpErich Schaffer: “Water Vapor Feedback, Part One”: https://youtu.be/2O4mOf9gk-shttps://x.com/erich_schafferhttps://greenhousedefect.com/=========Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summariesMy Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1