Erik Wetterling – Precious Metals Corrections Highlight Which Portfolio Positions Are High-Conviction Alpha Investments Versus Beta Momentum Plays

Erik Wetterling, Founder and Editor of The Hedgeless Horseman website, joins me to reflect on the status of the gold and silver bull market, after the corrective moves of the last few months.  He also outlines how he is approaching rebalancing his portfolio from a high-conviction standpoint, and by weighting his positioning heaviest to the junior resource stocks with compelling alpha catalysts on tap in their coming newsflow.    He starts off noting that the correction thus far in gold and silver, from the high peaks earlier this year to the recent lows is almost getting as extreme, on a percentage basis, as the moves seen in the metals during the Great Financial Crisis.  For this reason he believes most of the downside price moves have already occurred across the sector, and he is not expecting a prolonged multi-year bear market from here.   With regards to the junior resource stocks, his perspective is that these deeper corrections bring clarity to one’s conviction in any given portfolio position.  When analyzing the downside trends that we’ve seen in precious metals stocks over the last few months, and especially during the sharp moves lower, like what we saw the end of last week; he encourages investors to reevaluate what they hold and why they got positioned in those stocks in the first place. One may feel compelled to accumulate a larger position as the price and valuation of a stock drops lower, because of the conviction they have in that company value catalysts on the horizon. The lower it goes, the more mispriced it will appear by the market, and the more compelling it will be on a risk/reward basis. In contrast, he points out being willing to sell out of a sector momentum beta position, especially if one gets lower conviction the more it corrects lower in price. This distinction will underscore that this position was more of a beta momentum trade, where the company was still dependent on higher metals prices strong sector sentiment to keep moving higher. He outlines that focusing on alpha catalysts in junior resource stocks, can end up meaning less outperformance during the really bullish periods, but conversely less downsize pressure during sector corrections.     Erik highlights why Goliath Resources Limited (TSX-V: GOT) (OTCQX: GOTRF) is a good example of a stock that has corrected hard with the rest of the PM sector, but is fully-funded for a 50,000 meter drill program, with a high hit rate on the prior few seasons of drilling, and a propensity to rerate based on positive newsflow. He notes that this stock is demonstrating a pricing pattern he has seen over and over again in junior mining stocks. Often a correcting stock will briefly break downside support, which is where the weak-conviction retail investors capitulate, and then the equity will consolidate and then suddenly surge higher based on their unique alpha catalysts, leaving investors chasing it higher once again.     Click here to follow Erik’s analysis over at The Hedgeless Horseman website   * In full disclosure, some companies mentioned by Erik in this interview, are positions held in his personal portfolio, and also may be site sponsors of The Hedgeless Horseman website at the time of this recording.   For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:   The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/     Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.