EPISODE · Mar 16, 2026 · 23 MIN

Game Theory of AI, Credit Cycle and Mom

from Lumida Wealth : Non-Consensus Invest Beyond the Ordinary · host Justin Guilder

00:00:00 – Intro: Family, Travel, and Game Theory 00:00:55 – The AI CapEx Arms Race: Disruption or Survival 00:02:01 – Tech Risk vs. Consumer Staples: The Discount Rate Problem 00:02:49 – Private Credit Incentives: A Race to the Bottom 00:04:45 – The 2021 Vintage: Deteriorating Loans and Refinancing Stress 00:06:52 – History Repeats: Rome, Julius Caesar, and Modern Populism 00:10:02 – The Minsky Hypothesis: Three Stages of the Business Cycle 00:11:55 – Credit Contraction: From Animal Spirits to Turtle Shells 00:14:02 – Taming the Cycle: Monetary Policy Failures 00:16:58 – AI Overinvestment: Where is the Promised Transformation? 00:18:49 – Market Psychology Shift: From "Buy the Dip" to "Sell the Rally" Connect with Us Online:Lumida NewsLumida DealsLumida WealthLumida ETF Watch the video on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@Lumida_Wealth🌐 Website: https://www.lumidawealth.com🐦 Twitter Follow us on https://twitter.com/LumidaWealth🎵 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lumidawealth📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lumidawealth📘 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lumidawealth 

What this episode covers

In this episode of FSD (Game Theory), we dive deep into the mechanics of the credit cycle and why major tech firms have no choice but to participate in the multi-trillion dollar AI arms race. We explore the "CapEx Receiver" thesis, the hidden risks of the 2021 private credit vintage, and the historical parallels between modern populist figures and Julius Caesar. Using the Minsky Hypothesis, we break down how the transition from cash-flow underwriting to structural leverage creates the inevitable business cycle, leading to the current market shift where investors have moved from "buying the dip" to "selling the rally".

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Game Theory of AI, Credit Cycle and Mom

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This episode was published on March 16, 2026.

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