He Quantified 200 Years of Disruption | Kai Wu on Separating Software Survivors from Value Traps

Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to break down his latest research on AI disruption, software stocks, value traps, and intangible moats. We discuss why software valuations have collapsed, why traditional value investing can fail during technological disruption, and how investors can separate potential AI winners from companies whose business models may be permanently impaired.AI Disruption: Moats and Value Trapshttps://www.sparklinecapital.com/post/ai-disruptionKai Wu on Xhttps://x.com/ckaiwuSparkline Capitalhttps://www.sparklinecapital.com/Topics Covered:Why software stocks are trading at a historically unusual discount to the marketHow AI disruption can create both real opportunities and dangerous value trapsWhy Blockbuster, Borders, RadioShack and newspapers offer lessons for today’s software selloffHow patent data and natural language processing can measure technological disruptionWhy disruption has helped explain the poor performance of traditional value investingWhy value investing may still work in sectors insulated from technological changeHow intangible assets like brand, human capital, intellectual property and network effects can protect companiesWhy Walmart and The New York Times survived disruption while other incumbents did notHow David Teece’s complementary assets framework applies to AI, software and moatsWhy AI adoption and intangible value together may help identify software survivorsWhy high dispersion in disruption-scare stocks creates a potential opportunity for stock pickersTimestamps:00:00 Software stocks now trade at a historic discount04:26 What makes a cheap stock a value trap08:25 Measuring disruption using patents, filings and natural language processing13:23 Is AI the biggest disruptive wave in history?14:55 Why disruption keeps stacking on retailers17:10 How technological change disrupted traditional value investing21:20 Why value investors need to know when not to apply old metrics25:06 Why more of the market is exposed to innovation than ever before27:07 What Walmart and The New York Times teach about surviving disruption32:40 The four intangible moats that can protect companies35:02 Why intangible value works better in disrupted industries38:50 Apple, Amazon, Macy’s and the difference between disruptors and value traps42:58 Applying intangible value to beaten-down software stocks47:05 Why AI adoption alone is not enough48:23 How AI could improve margins for surviving software companies50:09 Which industries are adopting AI fastest52:14 The software sweet spot: AI adoption plus intangible moats53:53 Why disruption-scare stocks have extreme return dispersion57:40 What happens when intangible value is applied to high-disruption stocks01:01:42 Why “code is not the moat” for many software companies