How Russia can be defeated - with Lesia Ogryzko

In recent months, Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia have outnumbered Russian strikes on Ukraine. Ukraine has managed to build its military capacities practically from scratch, while Russia has made very little technological progress since 2022. Furthermore, Russia is losing more and more people on the frontline, even as the pace of its advance slows down. Does this mean Ukraine can win the war? *** This is the “Explaining Ukraine” podcast. Host: Volodymyr Yermolenko, a Ukrainian philosopher, chief editor of UkraineWorld, and president of PEN Ukraine. Guest: Lesia Ogryzko, a Ukrainian expert in international relations and security, the co-founder and director of the Sahaidachnyi Security Centre, a Ukrainian think tank. She is also the head of the reforms support office of Ukraine’s defence ministry. Sahaidachnyi Security Centre: https://sahasec.org *** Explaining Ukraine is produced by UkraineWorld and brought to you by Internews Ukraine. This episode is also produced in cooperation with Politeia, a Ukrainian NGO. *** Listen on various platforms: https://li.sten.to/explaining-ukraine UkraineWorld: https://ukraineworld.org/en *** SUPPORT: You can support our work on https://www.patreon.com/c/ukraineworld Your help is crucial, as we rely heavily on crowdfunding. You can also contribute to our volunteer missions to frontline areas in Ukraine, where we deliver aid to both soldiers and civilians. Donations are welcome via PayPal at: [email protected]. *** CONTENTS: 0:03 - Introduction: Ukraine's recent military successes, including deep strikes and self-built capacities, raise the question: can Ukraine win the war? 2:05 - Why Ukrainians believe Russia can be defeated: a historical perspective of Russia’s previous collapses 5:01 - How warfare innovation on the front line is rapidly accelerating, with a 6-8 week feedback loop for technology deployment. 9:09 - Why Ukraine has to adopt an asymmetric strategy for Russia's "terminal defeat," dismantling its war-waging capacity, rather than fighting a symmetrical "small Soviet army against a big Soviet army" war. 10:36 - Asymmetric pillars include next-generation deep strikes over 3,000 km into Russia and scaled special operations/cognitive warfare within Russian territory. 13:02 - How Western partners show surprising hesitancy despite NATO's 2022 concept identifying Russia as the primary threat, and Russia's systemic sub-threshold warfare across Europe is often met with non-responsive actions. 16:34 - Why ignoring Russian hybrid attacks won't deter them; Russia, acting on "Gopnik logic," only retreats when forcefully confronted. 21:01 - Risks of a broader conflict and Euroscepticism in Ukraine 24:10 - Ukraine's deep strikes outnumbered Russia's in March 2026, significantly decreasing Russia's oil refining and export capabilities. 31:26 - A "golden opportunity" exists for Ukraine and Europe to partner, when Ukraine would provide battlefield innovation, and Europe would scale production.