How To Analyze Market Fundamentals

An episode of the The Josh Scandlen Podcast podcast, hosted by Josh Scandlen, titled "How To Analyze Market Fundamentals" was published on March 10, 2019 and runs 40 minutes.

March 10, 2019 ·40m · The Josh Scandlen Podcast

0:00 / 0:00

Summary

Is the market high, low, does it matter??? In this video I show you some of the JP Morgan research they put out every year for free.  The link is below.  This paper and Vanguard's are really the only two research papers I look look to with high anticipation.  Basically what I'm looking for in JP Morgan's stuff is where we are with valuations.  The 4 most current analytical tools for current valuations are, Price To Earnings ratio, Current Dividend Yield, Price to Book and 10 year Treasury Yield. With those 4 numbers you can get a pretty good idea of your return over the next 5 years because valuations are most important.  Nothing is more important from a future performance perspective than CURRENT valuations, other than an unforeseen event, of course.  Right now, the market is trading at roughly a 16.5 PE, with a 2.20% dividend yield a price to book around 3 and the 10 year is at 2.90% Nothing of these numbers scream OVERVALUATION which many prognosticators continue to say.  Can we take a plunge? Sure. But what would cause that? A huge decline in earnings, maybe. Unless that happens though, it's really an unforeseen event that would cause any kind of decline.  You can invest banking on unforeseen events.  So, the way I look at it, there is nothing to change.  Just keep paying down debt. Stay diversified and enjoy the ride.  https://am.jpmorgan.com/gi/getdoc/1383539161308

Episode Description

Is the market high, low, does it matter???

In this video I show you some of the JP Morgan research they put out every year for free. The link is below.

This paper and Vanguard's are really the only two research papers I look look to with high anticipation.

Basically what I'm looking for in JP Morgan's stuff is where we are with valuations.

The 4 most current analytical tools for current valuations are, Price To Earnings ratio, Current Dividend Yield, Price to Book and 10 year Treasury Yield.

With those 4 numbers you can get a pretty good idea of your return over the next 5 years because valuations are most important. Nothing is more important from a future performance perspective than CURRENT valuations, other than an unforeseen event, of course.

Right now, the market is trading at roughly a 16.5 PE, with a 2.20% dividend yield a price to book around 3 and the 10 year is at 2.90%

Nothing of these numbers scream OVERVALUATION which many prognosticators continue to say.

Can we take a plunge? Sure. But what would cause that? A huge decline in earnings, maybe. Unless that happens though, it's really an unforeseen event that would cause any kind of decline.

You can invest banking on unforeseen events. So, the way I look at it, there is nothing to change.

Just keep paying down debt. Stay diversified and enjoy the ride.

https://am.jpmorgan.com/gi/getdoc/1383539161308