EPISODE · Jul 23, 2025 · 31 MIN
How to predict Google Ads Results in 2025 with $0 ad spend (w/ Ed Leake) | S2 EP10
from The paid media lab · host Lunio
Get Ed's forecasting spreadsheet here: https://edleake.com/google-ads-forecasting-tool/And watch his video going into the spreadsheet in more detail: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ta5fIi0qbHwIn the final episode of Season 2 of the Paid Media Lab podcast, we speak to Ed Leake - founder of God Tier Ads, seasoned agency owner, and PPC expert with over half a billion in managed ad spend - to uncover the biggest mistakes marketers make when forecasting Google Ads performance, and how to do it right.With nearly two decades of experience in paid media, ad tech, and conversion strategy, Ed shares his hard-earned insights on why most forecasts fail, how to build projections that align with real business outcomes, and what every advertiser should know about scaling spend without killing ROAS.Whether you’re pitching new clients, planning Q4 budgets, or trying to get a grip on Google’s automation and Performance Max chaos, this episode is packed with straight-talking advice that cuts through the noise.🎯 Key topics:• Why Google’s built-in forecasting tools often miss the mark• How to forecast with business outcomes — not just ad metrics• Accounting for seasonality & demand curves the smart way• The hidden impact of impression share on CPC and performance• Why Standard Shopping still matters (yes, really)• Forecasting in an AI-driven, keywordless PPC futureTimestamps: 0:00 - Intro 02:12 - Ed’s approach to copywriting04:02 - The problems with Google’s forecasting tools08:39 - Accounting for seasonality in forecasting14:32 - Why impression share is important17:55 - Accounting for Remarketing21:00 - Should you exclude brand from PMax?22:45 - PMax or Standard Shopping?24:41 - Will AI invalidate forecasting?27:34 - Putting the work in29:32 - Final thoughts Prefer watching over listening? Subscribe to Lunio's YouTube channel to get full-length video episodes:https://www.youtube.com/@lunio.aiGet more free PPC tools, webinars, and resources at:https://www.lunio.ai/resource-library
What this episode covers
Get Ed's forecasting spreadsheet here: https://edleake.com/google-ads-forecasting-tool/And watch his video going into the spreadsheet in more detail: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ta5fIi0qbHwIn the final episode of Season 2 of the Paid Media Lab podcast, we speak to Ed Leake - founder of God Tier Ads, seasoned agency owner, and PPC expert with over half a billion in managed ad spend - to uncover the biggest mistakes marketers make when forecasting Google Ads performance, and how to do it right.With nearly two decades of experience in paid media, ad tech, and conversion strategy, Ed shares his hard-earned insights on why most forecasts fail, how to build projections that align with real business outcomes, and what every advertiser should know about scaling spend without killing ROAS.Whether you’re pitching new clients, planning Q4 budgets, or trying to get a grip on Google’s automation and Performance Max chaos, this episode is packed with straight-talking advice that cuts through the noise.🎯 Key topics:• Why Google’s built-in forecasting tools often miss the mark• How to forecast with business outcomes — not just ad metrics• Accounting for seasonality & demand curves the smart way• The hidden impact of impression share on CPC and performance• Why Standard Shopping still matters (yes, really)• Forecasting in an AI-driven, keywordless PPC futureTimestamps: 0:00 - Intro 02:12 - Ed’s approach to copywriting04:02 - The problems with Google’s forecasting tools08:39 - Accounting for seasonality in forecasting14:32 - Why impression share is important17:55 - Accounting for Remarketing21:00 - Should you exclude brand from PMax?22:45 - PMax or Standard Shopping?24:41 - Will AI invalidate forecasting?27:34 - Putting the work in29:32 - Final thoughts Prefer watching over listening? Subscribe to Lunio's YouTube channel to get full-length video episodes:https://www.youtube.com/@lunio.aiGet more free PPC tools, webinars, and resources at:https://www.lunio.ai/resource-library
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How to predict Google Ads Results in 2025 with $0 ad spend (w/ Ed Leake) | S2 EP10
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