India’s economy: GST trends, fiscal pressures and the road ahead

In this episode of the State of the Economy Podcast, Shishir Sinha speaks with Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, to decode the latest high-frequency indicators and their implications for growth, inflation, and government finances.  The discussion opens with the GST collection figure. Although the monthly rise is only 0.7 per cent, Bhardwaj notes that the number must be viewed in the context of GST rate cuts implemented from late September. A strong festive-season surge in retail sales across consumer durables, electronics and automobiles has helped offset the expected dip in revenue, leaving collections broadly flat. The conversation covers whether this trend is strong enough for the government to meet its budget projections. “My sense is inflation is so benign, and likely to remain so for the next few months, that the RBI should use this opportunity to go ahead with rate cuts… We are pencilling in a 25-basis-point cut for the December meeting,”  says Upasna regarding inflation and rate cuts.  The focus then turns to the fiscal deficit, the weakness in direct tax collections, and the heavy front-loading of capital expenditure. Bhardwaj explains how savings in revenue spending and a larger-than-budgeted RBI dividend could help the government hold the deficit at 4.4 per cent, though softer nominal GDP growth adds pressure to the overall fiscal position.  Listen in!