Is Nov. Trump Victory More Likely Than Dec Rate Hike? – Ep. 207

* Today the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December rose about 10 points * We're now at about an 80% probability, at least the way the markets assess the odds * That the Fed will raise rates in December after failing to raise rates today * If you remember, after they didn't raise rates last time there was some probability of a November rate hike * But by this morning, the probability of November had pretty much been reduced to about zero * With everybody believing that the Fed would raise rates in December * And now, as a result of their failure to hike in November * The probability apparently is now higher based on the language of their non-hike * This, despite the fact that there were only 2 dissenters when the Fed didn't raise interest rates the last time they met * Three members voted to hike and six voted not to hike * This time it was 7 to 2 in favor of not hiking * So what happened between meetings that caused the one guy who wanted to hike rates last time to decide he doesn't want to hike rates now? * Is it possible that some data came out over the course of those weeks that caused him to re-assess his feelings about the strength of the economy * And if so, why is that member going to flip back to "hike" in December, after just flipping to "no hike" * Is it pure politics? Our Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy