This Sunday, Iowa decides. Are you ready to make some history on Monday night? This is go time. Republicans are facing frostbite and dangerous record low temperatures as they get ready to make their choice in the first nominating contest of 2024.
Chaos follows him. You can't just terminate the Constitution. Former President Donald Trump leads his rivals even as he makes some of his closing arguments from outside a courtroom. So which hunt in the true sense of the word, who will emerge as Trump's biggest challenger?
Steve Kornacki has the result of our final poll. And Chuck Todd will offer a guide of what to watch on caucus night. Plus, smoke signals. Chris Christie exits the GOP race warning Nikki Haley will get smoked.
But will he consider his own independent third party run? I'm gonna make sure that in no way do I enable Donald Trump to ever be president. United States again. And striking back.
The US Launches airstrikes in Yemen as tensions rise in the Middle East. These strikes were very deliberate, very focused. While the Pentagon's top official remains hospitalized and under fire for failing to disclose his cancer diagnosis and hospitalization. My guest this morning, Republican Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa and Minnesota's Democratic Governor Tim Waltz.
Joining me for insight and analysis are NBC News senior Capitol Hill correspondent Garrett Hake, Brianne Fondensteel, chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register, Iowa State Representative Ross Wilbur, a former Iowa Democratic Party chair, and Mark Short, former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence. Welcome to Sunday and a special edition of Meet the Press of NBC News in Des Moines for the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses. This is a special edition of Meet the Press with Kristen Robert. Good Sunday morning from a bitterly cold Des Moines, Iowa, where tomorrow night Republican voters will finally get their say on who they want facing off against President Biden in November.
Well, former President Trump has been dominating the race here despite visiting just 14 of the state's 99 counties. Cracked 50%. What about the race for second place? Can Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis make a stronger than expected showing and gain momentum?
We begin this morning with our new NBC News Des Moines Register Iowa poll. And I'm joined by national political correspondent Steve Kornacki to break it all down. Steve, here we go. Yeah, Kristen, let's get right to it.
The NBC News poll with the Des Moines Register. They have been doing this for decades. They have one of the best polls in the business. And what do they find on the eve of these Republican caucuses?
There is Donald Trump continuing to have an enormous lead over the Republican field trip at 48%. Nikki Haley now in second place here at 20%, passing Ron DeSantis who's at 16, Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%. In terms of any change from our previous poll, which was done last month, udc, Trump down the tick as we said, Haley moving there into second place, Ramaswamy up a couple points. But put this Trump lead in some perspective here.
First of all, the 48% that he's registering here, that is the highest share for a Republican candidate in a final Des Moines Register poll ever. That surpasses the record of 43% from George W. Bush on the eve of the 2000 caucuses. Bush won those caucuses.
Also the margin, Trump 48, Haley 20. That a 28 point margin. That is also the biggest margin in a final Register poll, also breaking a record of George W. Bush of 23 points when he won the caucuses in 2000.
So that Trump leak, we haven't seen that before, but we've been seeing a lot in the polling this year. What about this question of whether you mentioned everybody's talking about it, Is it going to affect turnout? Could it help someone? Could it hurt someone?
We don't know. But maybe this is a measure, maybe this is a clue. We asked voters, are you extremely enthusiastic about your candidate? Again, you can see basically half of Trump supporters say extremely enthusiastic, about a quarter of DeSantis supporters.
Here's the worrying note for Nikki Haley. Fewer than 10% of her supporters put themselves in that category. So While she's past DeSantis for second, are those voters who say they're in supporter right now going to turn out? That question is raised by this number.
It's also just a question. We've been seeing this all along. Is your mind made up? You see a majority for all candidates now, but more core locked in support for Trump than the other two.
That has been a story again, we've been seeing throughout this process. Now take a look at the strengths here first that are driving down Trump to this big league. You see it, it's evangelical voters. Back in 2016, they made up about two thirds, about two out of every three votes cast in the Iowa Republican caucuses.
Trump in 2016 lost evangelicals. He lost him by double digits and he lost the state. What a turnaround in eight years. He now has an outright majority.
He's nearly 30 points ahead. Who has gone hard after evangelicals with this group of voters? The rule in Iowa of ladies, Ben, if you win the evangelical vote, you'll win the Republican caucuses. Trump is absolutely cleaning up in our poll with evangelicals.
What has gotten Haley into second place? It's this group, it's independence. They're probably gonna make up about 20% of the electorate. Haley not winning this group, but look how close she is to Trump.
Haley 33. Trump 37among independent voters. Now here is where it gets tricky for Haley, though. She's appealing to independence.
And in this poll we find that fully half, half of her support in this Iowa poll comes from either self described independents or self described Democrats. And it really starts to show when you ask a question like this. We ask supporters of Nikki Haley and we ask supporters of Ron DeSantis, what's your opinion of Donald Trump? And look at this.
More than 3 out of 4 Haley voters have a negative view of Donald Trump. She really is consolidating the anti Trump vote that is out there. And you wonder, is that starting to affect this? This is the basic popularity of each candidate.
Trump extremely popular to see it is still very popular. Haley 48, 46 favorable, unfavorable. She's become polarizing. A month ago, her favorable rating nearly 60.
Her unfavorable was 31. Favorables come crashing down. Unfavorable has gone soaring up for her. It raises that question.
Candidates who get associated, we've seen this with Christie, we've seen this with Pence, with anti Trump forces, with anti Trump voters, pro Trump Republicans. There are a lot of them tend to turn on them. Is that maybe what we're seeing happen here with Haley supporters? And how about this for a number two again among Haley supporters now, they don't like Trump in general.
We ask, who would you vote for, Biden or Trump in a general election? This is Nikki Haley supporters in Iowa, 43% say they'd be with Biden, the Democrat. Basically half, a little more than half, 23% say they'd be with Donald Trump. Again, that speaks to the coalition that Haley seems to be putting together here.
And then the final question, the bottom line question, this was actually the start of the campaign here. Donald Trump, all the legal woes, all the different trials that are going on here, asking Republicans in Iowa, is it going to hurry to the general election? Remember, DeSantis got in this race sort of thinking Republicans would think it would. Well, here we go.
Even the caucus is basically three or four Iowa Republican caucus goers. No, he can win the race against Joe Biden. Only 23% say that's going to make it awfully tough for Trump. The electability argument, the beginning of this campaign, we wondered, we had hurt Trump with Republicans on the eve of the caucuses.
Doesn't look like he's an island Christian. Now we have our answer right, Steve, fascinating breakdown of all of those numbers. Thank you so much. And of course, as you say, the big question, will caucus goers turn out in this big chill?
We'll have to wait and see. Steve, thank you. You got it. Folks who can't say enough.
The temperatures here are dangerously low and dropping. Tomorrow is expected to be colder than any previous caucus day on record. Will Iowa Republicans brave the cold and turnout? The candidates have canceled some events that spent the last 48 hours making their closing arguments.
It's gonna get even colder. And we're in. We're showing up. I mean, Donald Trump, I guess, has phoned it in.
We're just gonna be hanging out down in Mar a Lago for probably 75 degrees there. Now, Monday is going to be cold, really cold. But what I'm asking you is if you will take the time to not just go to the polls, take people with you. We have a huge, a huge advantage here because the only thing is I just landed an airplane.
It's nessy out there. I just had a poll that just came out as I was leaving in Iowa. I'm leading by 30 and 35 and 40 points in every pole that can't find a bad one. Donald Trump, if he's the nominee, the whole election is going to be about legal issues, criminal trials, maybe criminal convictions by then.
January 6th, all of that, that plays into the Democrats hands. Chaos follows him. And we can't be a country in disarray and have a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos. We won't survive it.
Join me now is Iowa Republican Senator Joey Ernst, a member of Senate leadership who chairs a Republican policy committee and the first female combat veteran elected to serve in the United States Senate. Senator Ernst, welcome back to Meet the press. Oh, good morning, Kristen. It's great to be with you.
It is great to have you. Happy caucus, Eve. We should know that you have not endorsed a candidate. I want to ask you about this lead the former President Trump has.
It is nearly 30 points in our latest poll. But of course, the big X factor. Here is the weather. I have to ask you before we delve into policy issues, do you think these frigid temperatures will help or hurt Donald Trump on caucus night?
Well, it's hard to know. Iowans are a hardy people and there are no snow days when it comes to caucus. So we'll see who turns out Tomorrow night, I would say bundle up, wear your car hearts and your coverage insulated boots, but get out there and support your candidates candidate of choice. But Kristen, it really is hard to tell who's going to drive out the most voters.
But one thing I can say, Iowa being the first in the nation caucus state, we do take this very seriously. Well, I've been out talking to folks and everyone is saying exactly that point. Senator, I'll ask you about former Ambassador Nikki Haley. Narpal, she comes in second place.
But if you look at the polls overall, she does best against President Biden in a general election campaign. Former President Trump is tied effectively with President Biden. If Republicans want to win back the White House, is Nikki Haley your best bet? Well, I think she is a great candidate.
Again, I'm not endorsing anyone in the Iowa caucuses, but if you look at the issues that are top of mind for Iowa Republicans, they are the economy they've suffered under President Biden. It is the southern border in the flow of illegal migrants into the United States. But overall, if you look at national security, protecting our borders and pushing back against our adversaries worldwide, Nikki Haley does have the experience there. She's really spoke to that to the Iowa voters.
So that may be one of the tipping points that resonate with so many different voters. Well, let me try to get at the question this way. Do you plan to endorse whichever candidate emerges as the winner after the Iowa caucuses? Well, it'll depend.
I have gone round and round in my mind. I do think that President Trump is going to win. We see such a large margin, but it's not a foregone conclusion. So we'll see who comes out the winner here in the Iowa caucuses.
We'll know that tomorrow night and then we'll know how to move forward. But one thing we know as Iowa Republicans is that we cannot have Joe Biden in the White House for a second term. So just to be very clear, though, if Donald Trump wins tomorrow night, would you endorse him? Senator?
Well, again, I am not going to say that. I need to review the candidates very carefully. We'll see the margin. I guess I am assuming that President Trump wins, but it could be any one of these fantastic candidates.
So again, we'll see who emerges. I've made up my decision on who I will caucus for. It is a private ballot and I would expect that we'll have a very good turnout. But again, Kristen, I'm not going to tip my hand to who I might be Supporting.
All right. Well, has Donald Trump asked for your endorsement, Senator? I have had a request from just about all of the candidates. So.
So again, I'm not endorsing and. And we'll keep those discussions private. And you're not ruling out endorsing Donald Trump, though, if he wins or if he wins the nomination, you'll endorse the GOP nomination? I am not.
No, I'm not ruling that out at all. But certainly we want to let Iowans make that decision through the weekend. And tomorrow night they'll come together at 7pm here in Iowa. They'll get out in the snow, in the cold weather, and then we will go from there starting Tuesday morning.
All right. I want to ask you about your recent trip. You were just in the Middle east with other lawmakers working to secure the release of the six Americans still being held hostage by Hamas. Do you have any reason to believe that there could be a pause in the fighting to allow for the release of more hostages in the near future?
Senator, what came out of your trip, Kristen? I truly hope so. We still have six Americans that remain in the hands of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. We are seeing now the negotiation for medications going into Gaza Strip for hostages.
That is extremely important. I led a bipartisan, bicameral delegation to the Middle east and spoke with leaders that are actually dealing with Hamas on this very issue. Leaders in Egypt, leaders in Qatar, leaders in Bahrain, and, of course, Israel. But again, every second counts.
We must get these hostages back as soon as possible. Their families are depending at. Their lives depend on it. We cannot forget these are our American brothers and sisters.
Absolutely. I want to say on this topic of hostages, Donald Trump has gotten a lot of attention for labeling those who are serving time for the January 6th attack as hostages. You obviously know the difference between those convicted of consul related to January 6th and hostages. Does it bother you that Donald Trump is using that language?
It does in this context, because we do have American hostages that are being held against their will all around the globe. And especially if you look at the innocents that were attacked and kidnapped on October 7, we are approaching nearly 100 days. These are people that have been taken. They're held in tunnels with terrorists.
They are being tortured, they have been raped, they have been denied medication. So equating the two, there is no comparison. Our Americans that are being held overseas, they are innocent. They were there celebrating the high Jewish holidays and were taken by these horrible terrorists.
So there is no equal, equal term. The hostages are hostages. I would certainly ask to speak to any of their families and see the anguish and the pain of not knowing whether their loved ones are alive or dead. There is a very clear difference.
And as you know, Mr. Trump is also talking about pardoning some of those who have been convicted. Would you advise him against that? Are you opposed to pardoning those who are serving hundred states?
I am not opposed to that. That is a president's prerogative. And so if former President Donald Trump is elected as our next president, he does have the right to do that. And I think we only left 100%, 700 of them have pled guilty to crimes related to storming the Capitol on January 6th.
You would support pardoning them? Well, again, I am not saying that I would support pardoning them, but that is a president's prerogative to do so. We have seen many presidents through the years that have pardoned many others. And so if Donald Trump chooses to do that as our next president of the United States, again, that will be his decision.
These are people, though, who attacked the building that you were in. You called them insurrectionists at the time. Would you not counsel Mr. President?
I did not call them insurrectionists. I don't remember using that term. I would say that they did break the law. They did break the law.
And I am not excusing any of their behavior. But again, that's up to the president. That term was used in an op ed by you in the Des Moines Register. But let me just do a quick rapid fire round if I could, Cedar, because we're running out of time, obviously.
This week the Biden administration ordered strikes against Iranian backed truthy targets in Yemen. This all happened while the Defense Secretary was in the hospital. He signed off on these strikes and of course, it came after a delay in him making the president and the American people aware of his medical condition. Do you think he should still be serving as the Defense Secretary?
Well, I do think that there will need to be actions taken as soon as we get all of the information which hasn't been gathered together for members of Congress. We have seen very little transparency coming from the Department of Defense. And I think it's absolutely inexcusable that our Secretary of Defense was hospitalized inable to perform his duties, and yet no one seemed to know what the heck was going on. This is not a circus, folks.
And he is not the director of the Small Business Administration. He is the Secretary of Defense. When we see attacks against American service members overseas, we see the actions in the Red Sea, we see the war in Israel and in Ukraine. We need someone who can be at the helm and be transparent.
It also goes to an issue, Kristen, of does the secretary of defense actually trust President Joe Biden that he didn't have the courtesy to call him and let him know what was going on? Joe Biden really in control as our commander in chief. This begs that question. And we as Congress demand answers.
All right. And undoubtedly we'll be looking to get those answers. President Biden saying he still has confidence in Secretary Austin. Senator Joey, thank you for joining us.
Really appreciate it. And joining me now is Democratic governor from the Senator Tim Waltz, chair of the Democratic Governors association and the top surrogate for President Biden. Governor Waltz, welcome back to MEET THE press. Thanks for having me.
Thank you so much for being here on this caucus. Even braving the chilly temperatures, I came south to get warm. You use the chilling temperatures. Right.
Let's talk about some of the challenges that President Biden faces. One of the big issues is his age. You've been an outspoken defender on this issue this week. The first lady went so far as to say it's an asset, but voters aren't buying that.
What does the campaign need to do to address this issue? Well, first, there is something to be said about age and wisdom. And I think results matter. Look, I served in Congress for years and why watched Infrastructure Week coming go.
I watched Joe Biden deliver on historic infrastructure actors building roads and bridges across Minnesota, Iowa and the rest of the country. And I think it's as you start to see here, where the choice becomes the binary choice between Donald Trump and disdain for the rule of law and Joe Biden competency and getting things done that overweighs that well. But I guess the question is, is the campaign taking this issue seriously enough? Do they need to do more?
Well, I think they are. They kind of stuff you're talking about it. I spent a lot of time with the president. He's great.
We, we're talking, we're chatting and all this. And I think, you know, we all get a little older. That's what happens. But you also gain that insight.
I think when it comes to these issues, working across the aisle to get things done, you see the president just doing this with dignity, doing his class, getting up every day, doing the work. So I think he's just doing what he does. I think it's a kind of incumbent on all of us. Look, my mom's 88, still live on the farm, drives herself.
Folks are able to do this. So I think there's a little bit ageism that goes to this, if it's not, that would be something else. They attack all of us on something. This is part of it.
Former Obama advisor David Axelrod is worried that Democrats aren't taking the warning signs seriously enough. He says dismissing Biden's challenges is deeply unhelpful and that the concerns are real. Do you think the campaign runs the risk of ignoring this is gonna be a close election. Nobody's denying that all modern presidential elections are close.
We're focusing on the assets of things to get done. Each of us has some of these challenges, but no, they're taking it very seriously. We're getting out there. I think the way they take it seriously, they're continuing to put out incredible policies.
For example, the school nutrition program that will extend into the summer is incredible. We see $15 including this state. Turn that down. We've got hungry children.
The Biden Harris administration still working with policy. So now I hear David's concerns on this. Nobody thinks this is going to be easy. Nobody thinks it's gonna be anything but close to.
But we're focusing on the things that we move towards. November, it's still pretty Earlier, I want to talk about one of the other big issues looming over the campaign, the issue of migrants. Muslim leaders in your state, one of several states, are calling to abandon Biden over his handling of what we are seeing in the Middle East. Illinois Governor J.B.
pritzker wrote this quote, unfortunately, the welcome and aid Illinois has been providing to these asylum seekers has not been matched with support by the federal government. The federal government's lack of intervention and coordination at the border has created an untenable situation for Illinois. Has the president been focused enough on these issues, do you think? Look, the immigration system is broken.
I served in Congress for 12 years. I was there, remember the gang of six in 2018? The fact of the matter is on day one of this presidency, Joe Biden without a comprehensive plan immigration for he's continued to ask for the resources necessary. Republicans don't want to fix this chaos.
As a president, ex President Trump talks about he wants the economy to fail on this. This is just an issue they use at this time of the year. But there's no doubt the system is broken. We need to have comprehensive immigration reform.
Look, these are asylum seekers experiencing trauma in their own countries. And we need workers right here in Highland, Minnesota, especially in protein processing. Some of those things we need to do that Congress, especially the House Republican Chaos Caucus is doing nothing about it. Yeah, and I should clarify combine the Middle east and migrants because we Already get the Middle east in just one moment.
But look, Governor Pritzker is saying that this is effectively an urgent situation and he is pleading for help and that it's not getting there quickly enough. Why hasn't there been executive branch is not appropriate. Look, we know Congress could do this. We saw it in 18 when we got close.
They didn't want to do it because they thought it would be an election issue. We hear the migrant caravan every time they step here. These are not serious people. They're not seriously trying.
So it doesn't. Two things are true here. The system is broken and we need that help. Secondly is it's Congress.
Do you think it's a crisis, what's happening at the border? Well, I think it could be fixed. I think crisis is, you know, we certainly have these. I don't want people living outside Minnesota right now.
I think there's a humanity piece of this and then there's a right that every sovereign nation has a right to control borders as we should. More could be done, but they're doing nothing. Congress is doing nothing. The person is asking for more aid for border patrol.
Not yet. Do you think the border is secure? I think the border with the folks who do work down there doing a great job. Could we do better?
Absolutely. And again, if the executive branch had their way, it would happen on day one. So I encourage folks, including Representative, my oldest senator, get something done. Send the resource over.
We, the executive branches of Governor, whatever. We follow the laws that are written by the Congress and there is a broken system. I do want to ask you about the Middle east because he is showing that President Biden is losing voters due to his support of Israel's war against Hamas. And again, Muslim leaders in your state are calling for Democratic voters to, quote, abandon Biden overnight at the White House, we saw protesters gathering outside of the White House gates calling for a ceasefire.
Do you think that President Biden needs to change strategies? It's a horrific situation and many of us have dealt with this issue. Traveling to Israel, being in the west, banking, Gaza. I was a member of Congress.
But the President has to handle this as commander in chief. He doesn't get to sit back and second guess on this. He's making sure that certainly Israel's an ally, being shown incredible concern for the Palestinian people, being very clear that Hamas is not a good actor in this. The Palestinian Authority has to figure that out.
As far as spokesperson expressing their opinions, I understand their family members there, but the question I would ask is if abandoning President Biden means a Muslim ban. If you think, just be very clear whether President Trump or any of these other folks, it's the same, you know, different flavor of the same. They're going to do nothing for this community. They're going to do nothing to try and work a two state solution.
They're going to do nothing to provide humanitarian aid. Their battle cry is not one penny for anywhere else. Look, they're abandoning Ukraine. They're abandoning Ukraine.
They will abandon them. So I hear the frustration, but the president has great and a lot of experience in foreign affairs. He's working the best he can to bring this thing to a conclusion. You don't think he needs to start calling for ceasefire in order to win the action of this support?
He's calling for a reasonable end to this. That has to be in a place where Israel can defend itself as well as making sure we protect Palestinian people, which Hamas has done nothing to do. All right, cover. Thank you so much for being here.
Appreciate it. You too. Thank you. When we come back, Chuck Todd is here with us in Iowa with what he will be watching for on caucus night.
Stay with us. Hey, guys, Willie Geist here reminding you to check out the Sunday Sit down podcast. On this week's episode, I sit down with one of the biggest bands in the world, Mumford and Sons, as we get the boys together to talk about their new number one album, Prize Fighter, and the evolution of that irresistible foot stomping sound. You can get our conversation for free wherever you download your podcasts.
Welcome back with more on what to watch here in the final 24 hours. I'm joined by my colleague, NBC News Chief Political analyst Chuck Todd. Chuck, I can think of no better Sunday to welcome you back to MEET the press. Thank you, bud.
My favorite off site location that we ever had. These folks here are fantastic. They are fantastic and you make it complete. And Chuck, the big X factor is the weather we want to show folks.
We actually did a little experiment. We threw a cup of coffee up into the air outside. Look at what happens. Chuck, I love it.
My daughter's metering meteorologies. Exactly, Exactly. I mean, it just speaks to how dangerously cold temperatures. So the question is always about turnout.
But that adds a new element. What are you going to be watching for tomorrow night in addition to the weather? Well, that's the point here. It almost seems the entire ball game, but turnout, because the smaller turnout, that's when weird things happen here.
You know, Rick Santorin didn't win a large turnout, you know, those sorts of things. And Donald Trump has benefited from big turnouts. He really, you know, when we've had the higher the turn of defendant in general election, the better more Trump voters would come. So.
And is there a, is there a complacency issue that Trump has to worry about? So, you know, this is a question where weather has suddenly become entire ball and it should be a real advantage for Ron DeSantis. Here's the guy that has been building an organization longer than any other campaign. He's got a governor on his side who's got a built in organization.
This is why you build an organization is when the weather drops unexpectedly, are you gonna get your people out? Right. So in theory, this is all actually, I think setting up really well right now for Ron DeSantis. Let's talk about that race for second place.
Explain to people because we've been talking about it for days. Second place is important, but for Ron DeSantis, it really is important. Nikki Haley has edged him out in our poll, but if you look at the enthusiasm numbers, only 9% of her voters say they're enthusiastic about going out to support her. And what does that mean?
Only good news in our poll for Nikki Haley, the fact she's sitting in a second every other part of it. When you look at the internals of this, this is not a candidate that's on the rise. This looks like a candidacy that is sort of peaked a week too soon. Everything fell into place for her and then all of a sudden it imploded and fell into place on the same day.
Right. Chris Christie gets out, but then sort of steps on her candidacy. She gets a one on one of desensitis, but she doesn't do so often. DeSantis, she's got the better one here.
So Look, I think second place only matters if Donald Trump's under 50. This is like the most Republican electorate you're going to have. And if you can hold the front runner and former president under 50 in this electorate, which is as friendly of an electorate as he's going to have, you can do it here. Then you can make the case.
Hey, half the party would like to see this, Noah. But if he's over 50, I don't know how relevant second place is anymore. Second place is only looks as good as how, how many Percentage points under 50? Trumpets if he's over 50.
I don't want to overstate this. I mean, is that close to a game over when you take the bat? I mean, well, if you're Donald Trump, if you're Donald Trump, results you want is your over 50 and Ron DeSantis in second. Because then it really sort of takes the Winetta that says Haley.
It means there won't be a consolidation. It means both of them move on to New Hampshire. Ron DeSantis campaigns, they seem to be flirting with skipping New Hampshire. Right.
They put out the announcement saying they're going to South Carolina first. And then that same advisory, that same day, they're also going to New Hampshire. They're not sure what they're going to do. And that in itself already is a victory for Trump.
Well, speaking about victories for Trump, you have a new column now talking about how candidates can best challenge him. You write in 50 years, when historians look back at this campaign, they will no doubt examine it to the prism of whether the GOP wanted Trump or a new direction. That's not the campaign that's actually taking place. What is the best way to confront Trump?
Because they haven't found it. They haven't. Right. They tried to just, you know, they tried to do just a character campaign, you know, making a character case.
But trying to separate Trump from Trump ism, I think that's proven not to be. If you look at the last time, the last couple of times that there have been major sort of internal disputes inside the party about which direction to go. There was a robust debate on each side in 64, in 76, even in 16, there were robust debates on the side. There really isn't a debate about whether Trumpism is the right direction for the party.
The debate is about Trump. Right. And I think that's probably the mistake that Haley destiny. They figured out how to make the case that Trump's first term was a failure.
You may have liked the issues he focused on, but his inability to solve these problems is why we have problems we have today. And they're seem to be afraid of making that argument. And just very quickly, Chuck, you and I that started this race wondered what his legal challenges would mean. It's only made him stronger.
That was the big X factor. If you rewind to last year, there is. There's gonna be something. What if.
So what if Alan Bragg had not gone first? Right. What if only Jack Smith had done like, you know, I could tell you that Ronnie Santa has already said his excuse if he ends up getting out of this race. He's already diagnosed why he didn't make it.
And he has said he blinds Alan Bragg. He blank. And you talk. I talked.
Folks inside the White House, they didn't believe these indictments would actually be a benefit to him. Here in fairness. Well, we continue to watch this extraordinary moment in our politics. Chuck, thanks so much for being here.
Great to have you here. When we come back, Ron DeSantis is heading to South Carolina after Iowa's and just said, what? What does that mean about the future of his campaign? The panel is next.
Welcome back. The panel is here. NBC News senior Capitol Hill correspondent Garrett Hake. Brian Finance, chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register, Iowa Democratic State Representative Ross Wilburn, former chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, and Mark Short, former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence.
Happy caucus Eve to all of you. Thank you for being here. Good to be here. Yeah.
It's great to have all of you here. Let me start with you. Been on the ground for days. You've been covering this race from the very beginning.
Obviously, Trump has solidified his lead to caucus night. What are the key things that you're. It's not just the ground that's frozen solid here to a certain degree has been this race and something like that from the jump. I mean, Trump has had the lead for a very long time here.
I think the combination of the durability of that lead and the weather has kind of stalled out what we normally see as the final sprint of the finish here. You don't see candidates pouring money into the caucuses right now. You don't see people adding campaign events. It's not practical and it's not gonna make a difference.
I think we should lose the force of the trees here. Right. The story about the second place fight is interesting, but if Donald Trump doubles up the record here in this state after having been impeached and criminally charged in four different jurisdictions since the last time he was on a ballot, the durability that he has in this primary and we talk about everything that happens after that down the line is something that I think the Republican Party is starting to grapple with, all of us need to grapple with. So this is really where we are in this race, right?
Yeah. Brad, do you think that we will see a historic night or do you think there's gonna be some complacency? I mean, the Trump seems a little concerned about that, that people are gonna say, well, he's going anyway. I don't need to go out to these cold temperatures to book room, right?
That's exactly right. I mean, to the point of his durability, not only is he maintaining his leak, he's grown stronger over the months that he's been campaigning here, despite all the things that Garrett mentioned. And so you know, there may be some complacency, historically cold on Monday. But, you know, Donald Trump has been fighting this.
He's been going to his commitment to cause rallies. He's been telling people I need to show up. My the biggest threat to my win is if you guys stay home. Mark, we got this news that Governor DeSantis is heading to South Carolina right after Iowa.
What do you make of that? What do you make of this fight for second place as someone who has been in this battle? Well, look, I think that this race has actually been frozen in place for quite some time. I think Trump's lead has been 20 to 30 points for a long time.
I don't make as much about whether DeSantis goes to South Carolina or New Hampshire next. I think the reality is he has to have a strong showing here because he doesn't have the same operation in Hampshire or South Carolina. But I think the conduct for Nikki Haley is that if she really does finish second, which I'm still skeptical, I think Samus has a better. But if she did, and Santa's dropped out, most of destroys back to Trump.
So it doesn't really help her in the long term here. So whether DeSantis goes to South Carolina, New Hampshire, Kristen, I still feel like this is not going to be a protracted nomination battle. I think by the time you get to South Carolina, we're pretty much going to know the nominees. We're going to know a lot more after tomorrow night, Ross, including whether there are historic results.
And I just want to show folks what that looks like. The person who got the highest number of votes here in the Iowa caucus, Bob Dole, all the way back in 1988, followed by George W. Bush. My hypoth, Ted Cruz, set the scene.
You know, we have to put history aside. This is now. It's a different time. And the margins really aren't going to provide much insight.
Donald Trump and all the Republicans are running on the same extreme MAGA agenda, so they're really racing to the bottom, wrapping their arms around the most extreme fringes of the party. We should all be concerned about this. Well, Gary, you know, it's interesting because we weren't just focused on the action on the campaign trail this week. We were focused on what was happening outside of the courtroom, inside the courtroom.
Donald Trump at a civil trial in New York, turning this into another campaign opportunity. I can find Trump advisors who were worried months and months ago that the legal problems that he had would become campaign trail problems later. Even just for scheduling purposes, the Trump campaign has basically weaponized Donald Trump's legal problems and turned them into campaign opportunities. He gives the exact same message in courtrooms as he's doing on the stump here.
This idea that he is somehow being unfairly targeted by the justice department or by DA's, what have you, comes out of the mouth of his supporters everywhere you go. So they've tried to turn it into an asset again. And a primary versus general election. Whole different conversation.
It sure is, Brian. Is anyone talking about the president's legal issues here in Iowa? What's the reality on the ground? Right.
Only to the extent that they are ready to move past them. They feel like he's being unfairly persecuted. You know, you go to these campaign events, and I talked to a woman yesterday who described herself as a Donald Trump groupie. She's gonna see him six or seven times.
She's going against Indianola today to see him speak. And these are people who are, who believe that, you know, he is the only one who can fix the problems that they see on the ground and nothing in the courtroom is changing up for them. Ross, we saw this extraordinary moment unfold today in the former president's legal battles. His lawyers argued in response to a hypothetical question for President Trump's legal team said that he could direct the military to kill a political opponent and still be barred from prosecution over that as long as he hadn't been tried and convicted in the Senate.
Do you think Democrats would start to use these legal issues against him? Because so far, the President Biden's been pretty hands off. This is shameful and it's frightening. We all should be concerned.
Do you think Democrats are going to start talking about this? Should they? Look, this election is about choices, and people are looking at whether we're going to unify behind the accomplishments of President Biden and Vice President Harris. You know, it's just this is anti American.
We need to be focused about table issues. Protecting Medicare, protecting Social Security, ensuring securing abortion rights. Those table issues that affect Iowans and Americans. This is the playbook for America, this election.
Well, I mean, there's an irony in the former president saying that the executive privilege protects him from any prosecution. Yet he also says on day one, he's gonna prosecute Joe Biden. There's enormous inconsistency there. But I think the problem for table of issues that Ross raises is I think that Joe Biden has failed at all of them.
What about this inflation, border crisis, war in the Middle east, war in Eastern Europe. And so those people issues actually drive people, back to Donald Trump despite the legal challenges. All right. Well, we will see what happens next.
Stay with us. We have more of our panel. But first we come back, why miracles can come true here in Iowa. Our Meet the Press minute is next.
Welcome back. Florida donor Ron DeSantis has declared he will win Iowa. Former President Donald Trump says he'll win the city with his advisors promising at least a 12 point victory. Nikki Haley has been tough to pin down, saying vague the expectations game is central to the first in the Nation back in 2007.
Here's how former Governor Mike Hathabee talked about his odds. October, you told me you're going to win. Oh, I hope so, Tim. I really do.
You said you were well Thursday night. I'll let you know. Let me tell you this, we're being outspent 21 here. If we do, you're gonna have a political story like you've never had coming out of Iowa on Friday.
Would it be a miracle? By my definition, yes, it would. I'm on record. Yes, it would be.
Of course, won the caucuses. The party's eventual nominee, Senator John McCain finished fourth. When we come back, what Chris Christie said on a hot mic after dropping out of the GOP race. But is this really the end of his presidential ambitions?
More with the panel next. And she think it smoked and you and I both know it. She thought this. Yes, I talked to this aunt is called me petrified that I would welcome back.
That of course was former Republican Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey caught on a hot mic minutes before announcing he was dropping out of the presidential race. The panel is still here with me. Mark, take it away. Those moments are always so revealing but also now speculation.
Could he potentially die in a third party run? I think it's hard to think that Governor Christie would run as third party candidate. But I do think that there's been less coverage about how I believe the third party candidates will impact this race. I think Donald Trump has a low ceiling.
He was roughly 46 in 2016, 46% in 2020. If you take the anti Trump vote and divide it among multiple candidates, it really hurts Biden and helps Donald Trump. And so Donald Trump campaign must hope. There are multiple third party candidates in this race.
And I think it in a head to head, you probably think Biden has the advantage. It's a multi candidate race. I think it's anyone's game. Ross, weigh in on that because obviously Senator Manchin got a lot of attention this week.
He was in New Hampshire at the politics and eggs, breakfast. He says he'll make a decision in the next several months. How concerned are Democrats about what Marcus talking about a third party candidate. Regardless of this, this election is about choices and Democrats unifying behind President Biden, Vice President Harris, the successes in terms of providing billions of dollars in infrastructure, clean energy doesn't potatoes at the table.
That's what people are going have to decide. This is about disarray in the Republican Party and this caucus process is pushing them to race to the bottom. Do you think a third party candidate, as Marcus saying, takes away from President Biden support? It really hasn't been significant.
And this is, this is we're starting. They are laying up the blueprint for how things proceed forward and you know, time will tell. But it hasn't worked for Ross Perot this time. Yeah.
I think third party candidates, Garrett, don't historically have any luck in general. Well, that's true. Right. They can help you lose.
They don't want to. That's right. So let's talk about President Biden. I mean he is facing a real commander in chief moment here this week.
He ordered these strikes against Iranian background targets in Yemen. We're talking about the scrutiny over his handling of the Middle East. There's the war in Ukraine. This is a commander in chief moment while he's in the fight of his political life.
And this is the double edged sword of incumbency. Right. Nobody has to imagine what you do as leader of the free world, but nobody gets to imagine what they want you to do as leader of the free world. And he's been in this moment really since October 7th.
You've seen support for President Biden go up among Jewish American voters. In some ways they appreciate the way that he's handled that war. You've also seen a very vocal element of his base, extremely outspoken about the death in Gaza and whether or not he and Americans are somehow more responsible for that. The Biden campaigning broadly believes that they can bring those people back into the tent with their favorite aphorism about choosing between the almighty and the alternative.
Donald Trump's not going to treat Gazans any better than Joe Biden might. But he's very much in the spotlight on this issue. I think gave Joe Biden troops or means it. Probably being in the spotlight on foreign affairs is something he'd be perfectly comfortable with down the stretch.
But it is a very bright spotlight that only the commander in chief. It isn't really how much focus is there on President Biden, that commander in chief moment that he's having right now, particularly, we wait to see if there is a third party candidate. Right. I think Iowans are absolutely paying attention.
We saw the conversation here in the caucuses shift toward foreign affairs as all of this is happening. And you watch what Joe Biden is doing right now while all of these Republicans are campaigning, while Donald Trump is in the courtroom. He's a New Hampshire. He's going back to his original campaign message, which is this is about the sake of democracy.
And so you really see him kind of calling back to his original messages that helped him win over Donald Trump. Okay, Mark, final point. I think that the problem with Joe Biden's campaign so far, he hasn't been talking about this issue. He's been talking about January 6th.
I think a lot of voters already factored that in. And I do think that if there are multiple candidates, it's going to benefit whole the Joe Biden is the president. He's leading. They're all trying to be president.
This is a moment for our president to show leadership and bring the world together. All right. Thank you all for being here on the eve of the caucuses. We really appreciate a great conversation before we go.
Don't miss our special coverage of the caucuses tomorrow night beginning at 7pm Eastern on NBC News now. And Peacock, that's all for today. Thank you so much for watching. We'll be back next week because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the press.
Hey, it's Kate Snow, NBC News anchor and host of the Drink. This month, Demi Lovato is my guest. The global superstar tells me that she is the happiest she's ever been right now. But getting there, it wasn't simple.
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