Lower Oil, Softer Inflation and Shifting Rate Expectations

Falling oil prices are beginning to reshape the outlook for inflation, monetary policy and global interest rates.Matt Jones and Neil Staines assess the macroeconomic themes likely to drive markets in the week ahead, including continued UK fiscal uncertainty, the increasingly dovish signals from major central banks and the implications of lower energy prices for rate expectations.In the UK, they consider the political and fiscal backdrop, the apparent £15 billion budget shortfall and the commitment to existing fiscal rules that has so far helped keep gilt markets calm. They also examine Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments at Sintra, where falling energy prices, weakening activity, softer labour markets and a widening output gap supported a more dovish policy narrative.The discussion then turns to the global economy, covering stabilising Chinese PMIs, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preference to pause and assess, a strong Japanese Tankan survey and a softer Eurozone inflation picture. Key data to watch include Australian inflation, Eurozone investor confidence and retail sales, Japanese cash earnings, Chinese CPI and PPI, and a busy schedule of emerging-market central bank meetings and inflation releases.In the US, attention remains on payrolls and the emerging policy stance of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. His comments on AI-led supply-side expansion, stronger productivity, higher potential growth and declining inflation risks pointed towards a more dovish interpretation, despite his reluctance to provide explicit forward guidance.Chapters00:00 Welcome and introduction00:29 UK politics, fiscal uncertainty and gilts02:07 Global macroeconomic outlook03:58 The Federal Reserve, Warsh and payrolls06:01 Weekend watchlist07:22 Long and short picks07:46 Closing remarks and disclosuresThe opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.