Meet the Press NOW — September 18

And welcome to Beat the Press Now. I'm Aaron Gilchrist, and that you just heard it there. That is the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange today. This is following the Federal Reserve slashing its key interest rate by an aggressive half a percentage point.

Now, the reaction from the market fairly subdued today, with stocks moving slightly higher immediately after the news and then coming back down a bit to close roughly flat on the day. This is the central bank's first interest rate cut since the pandemic, as it warned the economic outlook was uncertain. During a press conference this afternoon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters the cut was a good start and side of confidence. What message are you trying to send American consumers, American people, with this unusually large rate cut?

I would just say that, you know, the US Economy is in a good place and our decision today is designed to keep it there. More specifically, the economy's growing at a solid pace. Inflation is coming down closer to our 2% objective over time, and the labor market is still in solid shape. Is the Federal Reserve effectively declaring a decisive victory over inflation and rising prices?

No, we're not. Now, the move to cut rates for the first time in four years comes just 48 days before election Day, as voters continue to signal their frustrations about economic gains versus the cost of everyday goods. The Fed decision also comes amid an intensifying economic messaging battle on the campaign trail, with Harris and Trump trying to define each other. Donald Trump will give billionaires massive cuts, massive tax cuts, and cut corporate taxes by over a trillion dollars.

He intends to cut Social Security and Medicare, and he wants to impose what I call a Trump sales tax on everyday basic necessities. Look, she's gonna double up your taxes. She wants to terminate the Trump tax cut. She's got one thing that's incredible.

An unrealized capital gain tax that will drive every business out of the United States. And they're gonna raise the capital gains tax, Willie. A lot. The vice president and the former president have both leaned into their economic agendas, although in very different ways.

Vice President Harris, who has at times struggled to defend the Biden administration's economic record, focusing on her own plans to address high costs on housing, child care, food, and business startups, the those costs as well. And trying to gently break with the Biden administration on key tax issues, including how much to raise the capital gains and corporate tax rates. Donald Trump, meanwhile, has tried to gloss over the impacts of the pandemic on his economic record while proposing a wide swath of tax cuts, often without many details on everything. From tips to Social Security and local taxes, which he says would be paid for by increasing tariffs on overseas goods, something many economists warned could balloon the deficit and raise prices.

So let's talk more about what the Fed's decision will mean with NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Chunks. O'. Brien. We've been anticipating this cut, right, for a while now.

Is this where you expected the Fed would end up? How significant is a half a percentage point cut here? Well, I actually had a lot of Wall street analysts and just casual market watchers a little bit surprised. Someone said we didn't expect the Fed to cut by half a percentage point, maybe something like a quarter percentage point.

But it's important to remember exactly how we got here and the reason why interest rates were high in the first place. The big story post pandemic was inflation. Inflation, inflation infl inflation going up to around 9% at its peak in the summer of 2022. During that process, the Federal Reserve, which is the steward of the US Economy through their interest rate policy, said, all right, we need to raise borrowing costs that take steam out of this economy to make inflation go down.

And it largely did that job. But the question is, okay, well now with inflation going sideways here, it's certainly a vast improvement by 9%. Can they cut interest rates to make sure that this economy doesn't hit the tarmac too hard? And hitting the tarmac too hard will look like this.

Unemployment taking up more substantially than it is right now. It's a little hard to see because unemployment did take a peak around 15%. You can see it actually been drifting up a little bit over the past few months. It was around three and a half percent.

The last measure was 4.2%. That's what the Federal Reserve said you want. Let's recalibrate our policy, cut interest rate by half a percentage point to make sure that unemployment doesn't go up any further. Surprise to some area.

So, Brian, let's break this down for the folks at home in a real world application sort of way here. What do these cuts actually mean for people as they're going about their lives trying to figure out how to spend and save? Yeah. Well, all that I just went through is kind of like econ, taxable stuff.

But what does it mean for regular people? Well, we're talking about mortgages, auto rates and also credit card rates. Right. And they've gone up substantially as a result of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.

Here are your average rates that you're paying in 2020 for a third year fixed mortgage for a car loan in addition to your credit cards. And check out what it looks like in 2024. Right. We all know the mortgage market is a lot more painful now than it was in 2020.

6.1% is your third year fixed mortgage rate, 8.6% for auto loans and 21.5% for credit cards by some measures in all time high. So what we can expect after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point today is alright. These interest rates, which are tied indirectly to what the Fed does not go down by exactly half a percentage point, but they should be going down. In fact, mortgage rates have already been coming down few months.

It was around 8% in October last year. It's been drifting down in anticipation of what the Fed did today with their auto loans and credit card rates needs to go down a bit more marginally in the next few months as well. So. Right, very quick, what comes next year?

The Fed hinted at additional cuts potentially. Yeah. Well, the Federal Reserve also had projections for where interest rates could go for here and projection is at least another 50 basis points or 0.5% in interest rate cuts by the end of this year. That implies there could be more interest rate cuts in their November and December meetings which are on the calendar for the rest 2024.

All right, Brian Johnson for today. Brian, thank you. And joining me now is Jason Furman, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama. Jason, thanks for being here today.

First, I do want to get your reaction to today's announcement from the Fed. What's your take on this? I think it's terrific and it's a real vote of confidence in the US economy and it's well deserved. Inflation has come down a lot.

It's not all the way to the Fed's target, but it's getting closer. The risks have grown a little bit on the employment side, not a lot. And so the Fed is starting this process of getting us back to normal. And we have the Fed telling Americans that its plan is working, that inflation is cooling.

Right. Lay folks, voters have said that's not the reality at my house. So even if economic fundamentals are strong at this point, how do you explain this to people who say they still feel a gut punch from high prices? Yeah, look, the problem is that people are rightfully, incredibly frustrated about the huge increase in prices in 2021, 2022 and into 2023.

And the Fed cannot undo that. We cannot get prices back to where they were in 2019. The only way to do that would be to engineer just a massive depression. What the Fed can do is get us going forward back to normal.

Inflation rising at 2% a year. And the good news is wages are rising a lot faster than 2% a year. So every year people are starting to make up some of that lost ground, but it's not going to get there right away. And the best they can do is just start the process and keep it going.

And that's what they're doing. Now, I do want to ask you two about your op ed in the Wall Street Journal this week. And you argue in this race as a presidential race, the evaluation is clear. Mr.

Trump's ideas on tariffs, the budget and the Federal Reserve pose a much greater risk to the economy than Ms. Harris's. Now, you said that both of them floated bad ideas. Expand on what you've written here.

Yeah. So, you know, in political campaigns is all sorts of things that are about appealing to voters rather than appealing to economists. I get that. Also here, a bunch of ideas that I like.

You know, Vice President Harris talking about expenditure, tax, credit. But when it comes to economic growth. Yeah, the big three. Or are you going to have huge across the board tariff, trade, war tax on families Trump wants to do.

That'd be terrible. What are you doing? The budget deficit, neither of them are taking seriously enough. But Trump is proposing much more deficit increases and finally the Fed.

This administration's been very good at respecting the independence of the Fed, letting it make the hard choices that have put us on this better economic track. So one of the big questions that we hear up here during campaign seasons is the question of is the economy better than it was four years ago? If that is the case now, why is it not something we've heard the vice president lean into more in her talking about the economy? Look, I don't know exactly how to phrase things.

If you're trying to be president, I can tell you what the facts are about the economy, which is it's a really impressive recovery, by the way. What, do you envy the world? I travel around the world and people would love their economies to be like the United States in terms of economic growth, productivity growth, our inflation rate, our employment rate. We're in much, much better shape than we're in.

But it's still hard for a lot of people. A lot of people haven't recovered from the inflation. The unemployment rate has ticked up a little bit recently. And so how to get this, you know, both halves of the message, the challenges you face, the strengths and be forward looking about here's you know, what I'm gonna do about it.

That's not easy. I do want to ask you something. I will put something on the screen here. This is from Donald Trump's proposed tax cuts.

What would the impact of all these proposals be on the federal budget? To practically look at it. Could we handle this sort of a drop in revenue? Yeah.

So my math skills aren't good enough to add all that up. But it looks to me like it's over $10 trillion. That is enormous, massive. If you did something like that, you would rekindle a huge amount of inflation.

The Fed would have to raise interest rates quite a lot to offset that. You know, other taxes would probably need to go up. That's somewhere between, you know, sort of fake pandering. That's never going to happen is the good case here.

And, you know, something that will happen and causes all that harm is the bad case here. So we know that every president sort of takes a big swing on economic legislation. Right. As we just have just a few seconds left, I do want to ask you, we know for Obama, it was health care.

For Trump, it was, it was tax cuts. For Biden, it was the ira. What would you want to see a President Harris go big on working the election? I only got one word.

It would be children. That was the part of Biden's agenda he did not get done on a permanent basis on. There's so much more we could do to expand opportunities for children, invest in children, reduce children's poverty. We know how to do all of that.

I would love to see her do it. And it would help on the economy over the longer term as well. All right, Jason Furman, we appreciate your time and your perspective today. Thank you.

Thank you. Now, the decision to lower rates will certainly get some play on the campaign trails. Both candidates are looking to sell their economic visions now. Moments ago in Raleigh, North Carolina, the Republican vice presidential nominee, J.D.

vance, weighing in on this, using today's Fed decision to renew a Trump campaign argument blaming Biden and Harris policies for the recent rise in prices. It's better than nothing. But again, the reason why we have sky high inflation, the reason why we have high interest rates is because Kamala Harris casted a deciding vote on the Inflation Explosion act. And then she tried to do everything she could to shut down American energy.

So Americans are suffering from the stat stuff. And the fact that the Fed is going to give them a little relief in the midst of an election, by the way, is nothing compared to the disaster that Kamala Harris policies have caused in this country. And moments ago Harris called the Fed decision, quote, welcome news for Americans who have borne the brunt of high prices. Joining me now is NBC News chief political analyst Chuck Todd.

Pick up our decision some other things last year the Fed decision that came down today. What should read on that now the campaign's prices. Look I was the half point rather than the quarter point I think is certainly something that should settle the markets, should please the markets. What was interesting was sort of the coverage of this debate between quarter and half.

The perception was well if Powell's doesn't want to be accused of somehow putting a finger on the scale with the election. First election I covered one of the presidential candidates blame the Fed chair for lowering interest rates and somehow helping the opponent. I mean this isn't a new criticism. I thought it was very gentle criticism advance made there he made and oh by the way during an election year sort of implying that maybe this was the case.

But I think Powell would have looked like he was being too cautious and too worried about political outcomes if he'd only gone quarter point here. So this to me looks like and I spent a lot of time with Chairman Powell. This looks like more of in accordance with how he behaves. Not necessarily a political guy which remember he's the Trump.

Right, Right. Yes. I want to ask you too. The campaigns have been talking about economic policies and plans, things that have sort of been sweet.

Right. Dropping candy for voters. No campaign at all. We know that some of these things just won't work in different ways.

Do you think voters are enticed by that or do they sort of see through it? Well, I think the I assume voters see through this now since we've been through so many promises and seeing what can't get done and things like that. I will say this. I think it's been a bit risky of Harris not to have a lot out there not to sort of.

That's a fascinating question because think about this. At this point in the campaign we normally have an idea what's the big thing they're going to do. Right. We knew that with Biden was going to code related but it was going to be a big thing involving you knew as you point out Trump with tax we knew it Obama, he needed that health care pledge during his primary campaign.

What is her first hundred days? What is the on day one I'm going to do actually no he's going to try to do on day one. Whether you agree or not there are plans to do that. I think this And I understand it's very, I'd say that risk averse.

You put too much paper out there and suddenly you're the senator. She wants to make Trump the story and everything about that. Look, his tariff proposals I think have been easy for Harris to beat up on and she's talking about. So there's a risk in plan.

But I wonder if that's, you know, that's going to hurt her at some point. Yeah, yeah. I don't like what he's doing, but what are you going to do? And it's been a lot of vagueness we don't have.

It was interesting what he said. I'm surprised she's only further into some sort of care economy tax break, not just for childcare, but long term care because we all have. Now I'm in a generation of squeeze. Right.

We have parents and kids that fall into this care economy. It's a good place for her to be. I'm just surprised there's been no details. Last thing I want to ask you about this.

Harris appears to have closed the gap in some of the polling on the economy. How big of a deal is that for the campaign? Well, not only that, Aaron, you know who's noticed this? The Trump campaign.

They're out with some blistering ads now over the last two days that I've noticed that put her, connect her to Biden Onyx, have her talking how good Biden Onyx is. They realize being separated from Joe Biden has helped her perception of voters on the economy. The Trump campaign realized Biden's name next to the economy is negative. It's a bad thing to be associated with.

I'll be curious to see if they stay disciplined. I think they think if you tie her more back to Biden, it's she will then feel the impact of people's negative perceptions on Biden's economy if it starts to get traction. I think she's going to find a way to separate herself from Biden's economy because Biden's economy is unpopular. And why we know this because Harris has so far been able to separate herself on this issue.

Do it on your call now and talk about the state of our current political discourse. It was a fascinating read with a range of emotions. I like about some of this stuff. It's frustrating to watch this because I know we all know and ultimately we realize, I think we've perverted ourselves.

We are living in a fun house mirror and I watch it with members of, with friends and family of mine who have this view of people on the other side of whatever their other side is. That is very perverted. And you realize people are being served up the worst version of their political folks. They're not even.

It's not that it's the worst version. And we wonder why are these stories believed before they're debunked? And, you know, I don't think we fully appreciate how much our information ecosystem has really been abused and used to divide us. Look, is Donald Trump exploiting this?

Yes, there's no doubt. But that's who's putting us in these positions. And you suggest this happening in a couple different ways. First, from the campaigns, the candidates themselves and surrogates and all the like out there talking about each other, or they're.

They're. What happens is, right, you react, right, you get attacked, and then you feel like you need to fight back and you start using the same language and then you start. It's the demonization, and we've gotten to this. And the impact that has on a mentally disturbed person.

Look, most people are not going to act out on their threats, but the mentally. You know, there are mentally challenged folks who could get impacted by this. That's why we've learned this with any kind of shooter, any kind of attempted assassin. They have a fragile.

They have a fragile mind. They've gotten impacted by this. And I don't. And the irresponsibility, again, obviously there's some irresponsible political leaders here, but our tech companies have algorithmic us into this division and we can't seem to get out of it.

The only thing I would ask you. I'll put part of your column up on the screen here so folks can see as well. So the problem with political discourse in America right now is that we are all stuck in a social media funhouse mirror booth. What we see isn't what is.

And how we're seeing isn't who we are. And yet here we are. This sort of lines up with what we're talking about with Springfield and Springfield, Ohio, and the cats and such, right? And it's.

And everybody rationalizes their harsh rhetoric by saying, but then you see this and you're like, you got a perverted version of this. And yet they don't believe us anymore, as, you know, the mainstream media filter. And we can go through a variety of reasons why that's the case, but I think it goes back to these algorithms that just feed more stuff to you in order to keep you online, keep you engaged. And we all know anger and fear.

It's Interesting. I've seen a few experiments. If you get people to pause before they respond to something or if you suggest using less toxic words. It's amazing how you can de escalate a situation quickly.

What's really frustrating is human beings are automatic de escalators for some reason. I think even no, when we're physically together, it's the fact when there's no human interaction, no human connection, there's no dslr. And you have to hope that there's some way to find the middle age yelling into the void. But we do.

I don't think we have talked about this problem enough. It is not a one sided problem. This is an issue that our information ecosystem has been poisoned by these algorithms. Social media companies appreciate it.

Coming up, Trump hits a highly competitive House district on Long island, holding his first rally since Sunday's apparent assassination attempt. We are live in New York next. Plus, a second wave of explosions hitting Lebanon as Hezbollah vows retaliation against Israel for a stunning attack targeting the group's communication devices. You're WATCHING ME the PRESS now.

And welcome back. We are 48 days out from polls closing and former President Donald Trump is making a campaign stop in an unorthodox place. Long Island, New York. Later tonight, the former president is holding a rally at the former home of the NHL's New York Islanders.

The Empire State, not a battleground, of course, but it is home to several hotly contested House races that could decide which party controls Congress come January. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris is here in Washington speaking at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute's leadership conference. That was earlier today, focusing her remarks on healthcare and reproductive health. And while both candidates have been holding out hope for a potential endorsement from the Teamsters, that powerful union now says it will not be endorsing a presidential candidate this cycle.

Both the Trump campaign and the Harris campaign putting out statements implying the union's members support their respective candidates. Joining now from Long Island, New York is ABC's Ali Battali. And outside the White House is Mike Meneley. Ali, I'll start with you there in New York.

Less than 50 days away now from Election Day, why is Donald Trump holding a rally in Long island in a very Democratic state? Well, Trump was on True Social the other day saying that Long island was a sign that New York itself could be in play at the presidential level. That's pretty far fetched. But the reality is it is very much a centerpiece to the Republican plan to hold control of the house back in 2022.

This is the state that was really the road to the majority for Republicans. There were various districts, including this one on Long island, that flipped from blue to red. Now it's in the hands of Congressman Anthony Desposito. He's one of the Congress people who was here at this Trump rally.

And as he was walking in, I asked him about the reality that this is a district he won in 2022, but it's also a district that Biden won in 2020 by about 10 points. It's also gone through redistricting, gotten slightly bluer in its demographic makeup. Nevertheless, Desposito saying that having Trump here is a good thing, despite the private whispers that could be politically problematic for some of these members like Desposito, who are in swing seats that they have to retain if Republicans hope to hold on to the majority after November. I want to ask you to head this trip.

Trump floated a very popular tax cut to folks there on Long Island. Right. What can you tell us about this salt deduction and how it's a change for Donald Trump in his tune, a significant change, especially because SALT deductions were rolled back because of the tax, jobs, tax and jobs bill that Trump himself pushed through Congress back during his administration. Salt, though, is something that angered New Yorkers through the ire of New York members, New Jersey members of Congress as well.

So the fact that Trump is sort of reversing course, saying he's going to bring back salt deductions, a tax deduction of New Yorkers and New Jersey voters very badly would like to be able to use again, that is notable. It is a flip flop, but it's also a sign that he knows his New York constituency and knows where he's about to be campaigning. It's also something that, again, is not a Republican priority writ large. And it is a flip flop for him.

But notable to see him sort of casting policy in a way where it goes more with the polls of where he's campaigning rather than what his actual policy platforms have been in the past. I'll be interested as someone who covers both Congress and the campaign trail and seeing if it's something that makes its way here to a New York crowd that would probably be excited to hear it. I do want to ask you very quickly before let go. Obviously this is Donald Trump's first big rally since the apparent assassination attempt over the weekend.

We know that wasn't a campaign event. It was an otrs, we call it. What should we expect to hear from him in front of this friendly crowd at the hockey arena? Well, he was talking about it even last night in Michigan.

The realities of how the campaign trail has changed for him in part because the attempted assassination in Butler Pen. And then, of course, in light of what happened this weekend, Secret Service flying a man who was at his golf course and trying to have Trump in his sights, literally with the gun that he had with him. Of course, that's something Trump has talked about. We'll see if he talks about it here.

But I can tell you from a security posture on the ground, there's always a big security presence here. Secret Service and other law enforcement agencies on the local level working together to make sure that these kinds of events are safe. I've been to more than 100 of these strong rallies over the years. Just because there's a heightened posture doesn't mean you can always see it.

Certainly today there's a sensitivity. We even saw it this morning in talking to the police commissioner here. But he assured me he thinks that this is an event that is 100% safe or that's exactly what we want here. All right, thank you for that, Mike.

Millie, let me bring you in here. We know that the Harris campaign had been hoping for a Teamster's endorsement today. What do we know about what went into the Teamsters decision and the reaction to it? Well, the campaign is responding by pointing to the fact that there are some individual local chapters of the Teamsters unit that have endorsed her.

They're also pointing to the fact that the records of these candidates, Vice President Harris versus former President Trump, very clearly, in their view, illustrate which one is much better for workers. And this really does speak to two different dynamics. One is there has been an emerging gap between the leadership of major labor unions, most of which nationally have endorsed Vice President Harris very quickly after previously endorsing President Biden. But also there is this divide between the rank and file and that leadership because many, as the polling released by the Teamsters just hours before their endorsement, non endorsement came out, showed that some surveys they had conducted of their membership over different periods showed actually overwhelming support for Donald Trump two to one in one phone poll.

Now, we have don't have insight into the methodology, but that is an interesting window into how this split potentially plays out. And I agree. Quickly, the vice president spoke to the national association of Black Journalists yesterday. She spoke to the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute's conference.

What do we know about Song Tap for the vice president the rest of this week? Well, it's interesting in just speaking about that event today for one minute because the focus on her part despite the focus on migration and immigrants and specifically the relates to Springfield, Illinois, her focus actually was on the economy, which speaks to the fact that pollsters and different analysts tell you that no matter every age group, ethnicity, demographic you could think of, the economy is the number one issue. But we are going to see the vice president continuing to travel this week. She has that very big event with Oprah.

Of course, we saw her convention speech in Chicago. They're conducting this national virtual event focused on what they say is the theme of unity. We know how important that is at this moment. The vice president also now we understand maybe changing her schedule to travel to Georgia.

Her running mate Tim Walls was just there in the last 24 hours. Speaks to their optimism, continuing to focus on that say as well for us right down the street there at the White House. Mike, thank you. Let me bring our panel now.

Julie Manchester, national political reporter for the Hill, Donna Edwards Ford, Democrat congresswoman from Maryland and NBC News political analyst and Sarah Fagan, Republican strategist and NBC News contributor. Lace, thank you all for being here. Julia, I'll start with you. As we now see that this gallery is about to happen on Long island for the Trump campaign.

What do you make of that and that use of resources 48 days out from the election? Yeah, so a lot of this goes down obviously to the battle of the House majority, which much of it runs through much of downstate New York, Long island in particular. And this is Donald Trump very much trying to bring the rest of the ticket along with him. And this will be a big test of that.

Look, New York is interesting because it's obviously a blue state, but I think in the 2022 midterms, there were some Republicans, particularly in that gubernatorial race with Lt. Governor Kathy Hochul running, that maybe had a closer margin than what Democrats were hoping for, made them a little nervous. You have these deep red pockets of New York state that Republicans are very much trying to capitalize on, Donald Trump trying to give them some headlines. So, Sarah, is that the reality for them?

Is Donald Trump going helpful to these Republicans down valley in New York state or not? I think he's helpful. I mean, look, anytime you have a president or former president, they bring in so much of the activist space. And that is really a big part of winning a campaign, particularly in a congressional race that may in some of these districts were decided by a few hundred votes.

So that matters. And also the financial piece of it, you know, a huge piece of the financial epicenter in all politics is in New York. And so you know, there typically are donor events associated with this. They might be off camera people don't know about.

So bringing the president in is almost always a positive thing and there's almost always multiple reasons to do it. Donna. On the Democrat side, obviously, presidentially, this is a blue state we're talking about. You think the Democrats are doing enough in New York State knowing that the control of the House could be hanging the bounds here in terms of what the Harris campaign is doing to be helpful in that space?

Well, there are a handful of districts in New York that the Democrats have prioritized. The Democrats Congressional Campaign Committee has put them high on the list. They're spending real money in those districts. They also are raising money nationally in those districts.

I think Democrats believe that there's a real shot at getting those districts back into the Democratic column. And as a result, they've invested a lot of resources and you can see it on the ground. I mean, the special election that happened, you could see that as well. And I think Democrats feel really confident about those districts.

I do want to talk a little about the Fed decision that we got today, Julian. We know that there's been this disconnect, right between what some of the economists, big brains are saying about where the economy is right now. And obviously there's the economic message, but there's also the political message. Do you get the sense that voters are hearing this message today from the Fed and it's resonating with them, or is there still sort of this vibe session that we're dealing with people not feeling it?

You know, I think the vibe session could still be happening. I'm curious to see after this decision, once this decision sinks in, how voters respond to it. But look, on this issue of inflation in particular, we are still seeing in polling at least, that voters still feel that goods are so the prices of goods are still high. It's still made trickier for them to buy a home, for example.

But both candidates, Kamala Harris and also vice presidential candidate on the other side, J.D. vance, being very careful about how they talk about that position, you know, that or that issue. We know that Chuck Todd said the second earlier. That's something candidates have been historically very careful to approach this Is the vice president sort of getting that are you better off than you were four years ago question yesterday.

Take a listen to this. Four years ago, when we came in, we came in during the worst unemployment since the Great Depression. As of today, We've created over 16 million new jobs, over 800,000 new manufacturing jobs. We have the Lowest black unemployment rate in generations.

Is the price of grocery still too high? Yes. Do we have more work to do? Yes.

So does that answer work? I mean, is it enough to sort of walk this line between what they see as the good that the Biden administration did, but recognizing too, that people are still not necessarily feeling in their own pockets that things are getting better? Well, you have the facts of what this economy has produced over the last 40 years, and I think the vice president is rightfully pointing to those things. And then you have the reality of how people feel.

And I think one of the mistakes that's been made over this last year is not fully acknowledging how people feel about going to the grocery store, paying for back to school clothes and things. And I think that the vice President is straight up acknowledging that and then identifying ways in which she can try in a presidency to begin to bring some of those prices down. Sarah, the Trump campaign is be hitting the Harris campaign campaign on this issue of the economy. And at the same time, we heard the former president put forward no tax on this, no tax on that.

Not for a lot of details about his proposals either. Do the details matter? How much of the details matter anymore? Is it really just more about what you say to people to make them feel like I'm gonna do more than the other person?

Well, I think the details do matter, but what's, I think more important in a campaign, particularly one with so much media fragmentation, is to be disciplined about your message. And so, you know, Trump could hit back very effectively on that message from the vice president. I mean, the vice president and the president put forward a proposal that, you know, put trillions of dollars in this economy, which caused the inflation problem, which caused groceries to go up, which caused rents to go up, and they need to capitalize on that, and he needs them much more effectively, I think, ty her to the Biden economy. That is something that's been lost a little bit in the conversation over the course of the last six weeks.

And there was a reason voters were so frustrated with Joe Biden. It wasn't just because of some of his failing health. It was because of the economy. And I think Trump needs to tie her to that.

Is it too late? I mean, to say that he needs to. That's not something. You're not saying something new.

People say he needs to do this more, and yet he gets off message, you know, and so I think my point is like, he needs to be very disciplined about it. If this is an election that's decided on the economy and immigration which is certainly an economic issue. It's an election he can win. If it's an election where we only talk about abortion and Joy, she's probably going to come out on top.

And so that is the challenge for him as a presidential candidate is to be on terrain that is favorable. The cake is baked on the economy. This rate hike isn't going to affect everyday Americans for several months. They feel what they feel, and they don't only vote on the economy, but it's a major factor.

But they have also to be reminded of how we got here. So, Don, if the idea is that Trump needs to stay on that, we've seen that not be the case more often than it is. Is there an opportunity for the Harris campaign to fill that space? And what message do they need to then craft in order to take advantage of a lack of discipline?

Well, look, I think that you're hearing that. I think Sarah is absolutely right. The Harris campaign has been very disciplined. Both her running rate, 10 walls, but also the vice president herself in talking about the economy and talking about the way people feel and in talking about her ideas to help bring a stronger economy to people's pocketbooks and at their kitchen table.

So I do think that the Harris campaign has actually been able to capitalize on the fact that there is a lack of discipline and message on the other side, but also that she has some ideas that she repeats over and over and over again, and that's working to her advantage. Julia, I do want to put up this new QRPI poll that's out from Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, showing that Donald Trump only has a slight edge among likely voters on who would be better for the economy, who would handle it better, especially in the museum state of Pennsylvania, obviously. Is that good news for the Harris campaign? You know, I think it's potentially good news.

I'd like to see those numbers on registered voters as well. But I think it is, you know, good news that she's able to close that edge nationally. She has, it seems like she has a wider edge in general, but on the economy, I think for the Harris campaign, they gotta be careful. I mean, I think if she talks more about it, you know, it's more detailed, she has started to do that.

I think that plays her advantage. I do want to turn to one topic and some reporting. Sarah, from the Wall Street Journal. We'll put some of this up on the screen.

Related to the Springfield O. Vance spokesperson on Tuesday provided the Wall Street Journal with a police report in which a resident had claimed her pet may have been taken by Haitian neighbors. But when a Reporter went to Anntillbor's house Tuesday evening, she said her cat, Ms. Sassy, which went missing in late August, had actually been returned.

Actually returned a few days later, found safe in her own basement. The Trump campaign continues to push this false narrative about Springfield, Ohio, is a lack of discipline. Is there any strategic value to talking about this? Who are they trying to speak to?

I don't understand why we're still talking about it. I don't understand why they're still talking about it. I don't understand why they would submit a police report after all the noise that we've had over the course of the last couple weeks on this issue. You said what he said.

Maybe you regretted saying it. Maybe there's one example somewhere that somebody said that's genuinely true. Who knows at this point? Move on.

Go back to the economy. Go back to the issues that you could win the election on. Like I don't have a good answer. We did hear the vice president address this briefly yesterday at the NABJ event.

She said it was sad. It was a sad situation. But do you think the Harris Wall's campaign needs to speak more about this issue, about how it's impacting this, this community of Haitians in Springfield area? Or they're avoiding this because of the immigration issue?

Look, I don't think they're avoiding it. But I mean, when you have J.D. vance and Donald Trump walking all in the muck every single day, why get in their way? All right, we'll leave it there.

Donna, Sarah, Julie, thank you all. For you all, we'll have to break. New explosions rock Lebanon today as US Officials say Israel was behind yesterday's stunning and deadly attack that simultaneously detonated hundreds of wireless pagers belonging to Hezbollah members. You're watching MEET THE Press.

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Download the NBC News app now and subscribe for more. As the day wraps up, get the scoop on what's been happening with here's the scoop with a podcast from NBC News. With your host Gas in the studio, we'll take a deep dive into the day's top stories with NBC News's trusted journalists. It's a fresh take, a sharp, thoughtful and it's informative, bringing you closer to headlines and conversations that are shaping our world.

From front page to the Zeitgeist, here's the scoop from NBC News. Listen daily on Amazon Music. Welcome back. Another wave of explosions of devices in Lebanon today.

Take a look at the scene after today's attack, which reportedly targeted handheld communication devices. The Lebanese health ministry says 14 people were killed in today's incident and more than 450 others were hurt. The country's civil defense said they were working to put out fires in some 60 homes and shops in southern Lebanon. This follows the attacks yesterday, when thousands of pagers belonging to members of Hezbollah simultaneously detonated 12 dead there, injuring 13 rather, 3,000 others.

Two U.S. officials telling NBC News that Israel was behind that attack yesterday. Separately, two US Officials said that Israel told the administration it would take some kind of action in Lebanon, but that the US Was caught by surprise when they saw reports of exploding beepers. Now, as tensions between Israel and Hezbollah continue to escalate today, Israel's defense minister said the IDF was opening a new phase in the war, with the focus moving towards Israel's northern border with Lebanon.

NBC News international correspondent Brad Sanchez has the latest now from Tel Aviv. For a second day in a row, we are seeing a chain of explosions tearing through Lebanon. Yesterday, it was pagers in the hands, in the belts and pockets of Hezbollah members that were blowing up. Today, according to Lebanese state media, it is walkie talkies.

These blasts happening in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, but also in the south of the country near the Israeli border and in the east in one of the Hezbollah strongholds in the Bekka Valley. And hospitals are struggling to deal with an influx of what seems to be around 3,000 wounded people. Now, Israel is refusing to comment one way or another as to whether it was responsible for these attacks. But earlier tonight, Israel's defense minister said, we have entered a new phase of the war and that Israel will be shifting troops and equipment from the fight against Hamas in Gaza to the fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Now two U.S. officials tell NBC News that Israel was responsible for the Patriot attacks yesterday. And it appears that what we are seeing now is a new phase of that ongoing covert Israeli operation. The New York Times, citing two officials, say that Israeli agents smuggled small amounts of explosives into these communications devices.

It's not clear at what point in the supply chain they were able to do that, but one of the big questions is, will this cause Hezbollah to back down or will it provoke them into all out war? Back to you up next. In breaking news now, a judge set to hand down a decision on whether to release Shaun D. Cole from custody.

That's after the music mogul was arrested and denied bail yesterday on sex trafficking and racketeering charges. That's coming up next. You're watching MEET THE PRESS now. And welcome back.

We are staying on top of this breaking news out of New York City, where right now a federal judge is deciding whether to grant Sean Diddy Combs appeal to release him on bail. This is an appeal to a different judge's initial ruling yesterday that really denied the music Mobil's request for bailiffs. That came hours after the Justice Department unsealed a sweeping indictment against Combs, accusing him of using his power and money to abuse, threaten and traffic women. Combs facing three federal charges now, racketeering, conspiracy, sex trafficking by force, fraud or coercion, and transportation to engage in prostitution.

He's plead not guilty to all three of those counts. With me now is Danny Savalo's criminal defense attorney and an NBC News legal analyst. Danny, appreciate you being here today. So how often do defendants in cases like this actually get bail?

As we think about all that was laid out yesterday in the prosecution trying to keep them in jail, the key is the phrase cases like this because the Bail Reform act is a federal law that creates a kind of presumption or default that defendant should be released pending trial. However, for certain kinds of crimes, that presumption actually flips. And in the case of sex trafficking being one of those crimes, the presumption is now that the defendant will be detained unless he can show that he is neither a flight risk nor a danger to the public at large. And that's really the battle here.

Those are the standards. But every case is unique in its facts. And so the defense here has mostly focused not on the facts alleged to the indictment, but more about all the hurt efforts they say they're making that Diddy has made by coming to New York in advance of his indictment, handing over his Passport, putting up $50 million, putting up his home, having his family put up their passports. All of these efforts he's going to make to assure the judge that he will show up for trial, not threaten anyone, and perhaps most importantly, not obstruct justice.

I'm interested in your read on just how the judicial system works. Is it common for a magistrate judge to deny bail and then have that ruling reversed on appeal to a potential trial judge a day later? Yeah, that's not really procedurally what's happening here is that the arraignment is always handled by a magistrate who does address detention. So this isn't so much of an appeal as just having the district court, who's in charge of the case here at the actual bail hearing, which is not that unusual at all.

It's not an appeal in the sense that it's not going up the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. It's not a final judgment. It's an issue of bail, which can and often is revisited. But in this case, I think the district court judge may be somewhat swayed by the findings already made by the magistrate, which is why, no surprise, the government, being very good at what they do, already filed a letter itemizing all the findings that the magistrate judge made as a persuasive argument to the judge.

The district judge saying, hey, look, these are all the things that the judge already found. He is a flight risk. He is a danger. We're concerned he's going to contact witnesses.

So keep things the way they are. That's the government's argument today. All right, that makes mellow for the day. Thank you.

And still come ballot battles inside the RNC's push to get more Republican voters to embrace early voting, despite former President Trump's conflicting messages. This is MEET THE PRESS now. And welcome back. If you were looking for proof that the election is just around the corner, take a look at this.

Workers down the street from us here hammering in the first nail for the inauguration platform outside the Capitol. This is ahead of Inauguration Day, of course. Absentee ballots have also been mailed in a handful of states and polls close in just 48 days. Now, as they have for multiple cycles, Democrats and the DNC are encouraging early voting all across the country.

The RNC is also starting to encourage Republican voters to get to the polls early this time, despite some resistance from their nominee. NBC News campaign in bed. Jake Traylor has more early voting. Advocates say it can increase turnout and help more people be able to vote in person.

Early voting is expected to kick off in several states in the coming days. In the US all states allow early ballots to be cast by mail or in person. Of that, 36 states, including Washington D.C. allow early voting without required excuse or reason.

The Republican National Committee encouraging and embracing early voting. This cycle we have set up an effort to reach out, call it an early vote program nationwide. Despite resistance from the top of the ticket, they have early voting, late voted. Everything is so ridiculous.

We should have one day voting, paper ballots, voter ID and certification of citizenship. That suspicion from Mr. Trump echoed by some of his supporters. I think we should just have a day of voting.

I mean, paper ballots is what I'm thinking. Same day voting and having that what he wants for us. It's amazing because we don't want another stolen election. I don't think there should be early voting.

I think there should be picture voting in May. Just 37% Republicans said people should have the option to vote early without getting a specific reason. A sharp contrast to Democrats support of 82%. Michael Watley and Lara Trump.

The Trump act leaders of the Republican National Committee crisscrossed the country this summer encouraging early voting. The message for President Trump is very clear. It is great if you want to vote early. It is great if you want to vote by mail.

But on the very same day in July, Mr. Trump gave a contrary message, one that election security and legal experts say is false. A lot of things happened with the early voting. Look, anytime you have mail in voting, you're going to have fraud.

And some people don't like me saying it, but I say it still. Mr. Trump voted early himself in Florida's primary election and has encouraged it online. Whether it's mail in ballots, early voting, voting on the day you got to get out and vote, leaving some supporters caught between their candidate and convenience.

I think same day voting is a good idea because it keeps it more honest. The mail out, else that's a kind of a catch 22. Would you ever do early voting around voting? We do whatever and usually it's early voting.

Jake Trailer, NBC News Jake Trailer reporting there. We are back with more Meet the Press now. Tomorrow the news continues with Tom Costello in for Hallie Jackson Right now, everyone. I'm Dylan Dryer, co host of the third hour of Today and mom to three wild boys.

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