Modelling A Dangerous Future - Timothy Neal Is Leading The World In Understanding The Economic Impacts Of Climate Change

A category of guest I really enjoy speaking with though are those who are on the way up. People like Holly Ransom or Kal Klanznig or Vanessa Pirotta who are clearly going places - it’s a thrill to spend a little bit of time with them before they accomplish even more. Today’s guest doesn’t have the public or social media profile of those three, but I hope that is to change in next little while. Timothy Neal is a senior scientia fellow in the Department of Economics at the University of New South Wales and also the Institute of Climate Risk and Response. Earlier this year he was named Australia’s leading researcher in probability and statistics with applications and in 2021 was the recipient of the prestigious Paul Bourke Award for Early Career Research by the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia.What does that mean he’s an expert in then for those less initiated with economics, statistics and social science - it means his work at the intersection of climate change, casual inference and econometrics is resulting in entirely new ways by which to understand how much we already have and will continue to lose as a result of a changing climate and our civilisation’s collective commitment in dismissing and avoiding the reality of the losses, impacts, damages and harms that have arrived and are now locked in for decades to come.Tim’s work has re-shaped how I think, talk about and worked on physical climate risk - and his work with UNSW colleagues Ben Newell - a former guest on episode 87 - and Andy Pitman - in 2025 dropped a grenade into conventional economic thinking and modelling regarding climate change. How can we know that human activity has fundamentally altered the chemical, biological and physical reality of our atmosphere and still see company after company, regulator after regulator, reserve bank after reserve bank tell us that their numbers are telling us there is nothing to see here? How can a company write that climate change represents a material financial risk to their business then claim their scenario analysis process presents a near-zero loss future due to climate change? It makes no sense. Tim’s work has helped me understand why that is, what needs to change in economics to redress this and how all of us as lay people can better engage with the real but complex reality of attempting to understand what disaster after disaster means for economic performance nationally and across the globe.In this chat we get into Tim’s recent work on economic losses already able to be quantified and mounting up just in NSW, his seminal work on global macroeconomic loss results as well as what his research into panic buying and hoarding at the onset of Covid may have in stall for us as we face a future certain to be more volatile, dangerous and disaster-prone.Some extra reading relevant to this episode from our friends at Altiorem. Making the case: Macroeconomic risk & portfolio impact: A tool for system-level investorsThe macroeconomic impact of climate change: Global vs. local temperatureDiscourses of climate delayCheck out Planet Protein and receive 10% off your first order when you sign up. Send me a messageThanks for listening. Follow Finding Nature on Instagram