My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Can AI stocks beat Big Tech? In this episode, I discuss OpenAI and its decision to expand a secondary share sale that lets insiders sell about $10.3 billion of stock at roughly a $500 billion valuation. Although skeptical at first, the calculations reveal there is a path for OpenAI to deliver outsized returns.

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Summary

Can AI stocks beat Big Tech? In this episode, I discuss OpenAI and its decision to expand a secondary share sale that lets insiders sell about $10.3 billion of stock at roughly a $500 billion valuation. Although skeptical at first, the calculations reveal there is a path for OpenAI to deliver outsized returns.

First published

09/10/2025

Genres

technology business investing news

Duration

30 minutes

Parent Podcast

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

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Episode Description

Can AI stocks beat Big Tech? In this episode, I discuss OpenAI and its decision to expand a secondary share sale that lets insiders sell about $10.3 billion of stock at roughly a $500 billion valuation. Although skeptical at first, the calculations reveal there is a path for OpenAI to deliver outsized returns.I cover:(0:00) The $500B question (01:11) Why the Nasdaq Index is the benchmark (03:35) Inside the OpenAI-Microsoft deal (05:50) The bull case: OpenAI’s trillion-dollar path (09:33) The AI market explosion (12:39) The bear case: Competition and constraints (17:13) Exploring the models of tomorrow (20:58) The disruption premium (23:21) Where will OpenAI’s revenue come from? (29:14) The final verdict Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See <a href="https://pcm.adswizz.com">pcm.adswizz.com</a> for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.