October 15th, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

Show Notes — October 15, 2025Focus: FX, Commodities, Trade & GeopoliticsFXUSD softened after Fed Chair Powell said downside risks to jobs had increased, noting those risks justified September’s rate cut and that balance-sheet runoff may soon end.EUR/USD steady near 1.16 as French political uncertainty eased when the Socialist Party confirmed it will not back a no-confidence vote after pension reform was suspended.GBP recovered from Tuesday’s jobs-driven losses after BoE’s Bailey reiterated that labour-market data support his view of cooling employment.JPY strengthened amid safe-haven demand, with USD/JPY testing the 151.00 level as the dollar lost momentum.AUD/NZD firmer on better risk tone and CNH support; RBA officials highlighted upside inflation risks in Q3, keeping policy data-dependent.MAS held policy settings unchanged, forecasting core inflation to trough soon before rising through 2026.CommoditiesOil prices traded subdued after the IEA cut its 2025 global demand forecast to +710k bpd and flagged a possible 4mln bpd surplus next year as supply rises against weak consumption.Gold extended record highs, driven by expectations of Fed easing and U.S.–China trade friction.Copper stayed rangebound following prior declines, weighed by mixed global trade signals and a firmer USD earlier in the week.Tariffs & TradeU.S.–China relations remained tense: President Trump said he’s considering ending trade in cooking oil with China, citing failure to buy U.S. soybeans.USTR noted six months of constructive dialogue but described China’s rare-earth export measures as disproportionate, warning that the planned 100% tariffs could take effect earlier if progress stalls.China’s MOFCOM responded that its rare-earth controls are licensing, not a ban, and accused Washington of intimidation while imposing special port fees on U.S.-linked ships and launching a probe into Section 301 tariffs’ impact on Chinese shipping.Europe & Policy SignalsECB’s Villeroy said the next policy move is more likely a rate cut than a hike and that U.S. tariffs will have negligible effects on Eurozone inflation.ECB’s Makhlouf described inflation as near target levels.UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is reviewing ISA reforms and a mix of tax rises and spending cuts ahead of the November Budget to bolster fiscal headroom.GeopoliticsMiddle East:U.S. President Trump declared “phase two” in the Israel–Hamas peace process and reaffirmed that “the job is not done,” while Israel confirmed sporadic breaches of the ceasefire line in Gaza.The rhetoric helped unwind part of the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices.Russia–Ukraine:President Zelensky will visit Washington on Friday to discuss air defence support and potential delivery of Tomahawk missiles.EU Commission confirmed new funding for a special tribunal to prosecute Russian aggression.Other Regions:The U.S. struck a narcotrafficking vessel linked to a designated terrorist organisation near Venezuela.Japan’s political impasse persisted after its parliamentary committee failed to set a date for the next leadership vote.What to Watch NextUpcoming Fed commentary (Powell, Waller, Bostic) for clarity on the easing path.Eurozone Industrial Production and German fiscal developments for near-term EUR sentiment.China’s trade retaliation follow-through and potential U.S. tariff timing.IEA/OPEC updates for confirmation of oil surplus expectations.Zelensky–Trump meeting on October 17 for any geopolitical or energy-market implications.