On My Mind: Episode 49 : Jan 16 2026

On My Mind: Episode 49 – January 16, 2026In this episode, we revisit the subject of the ‘Politicization’ of LNG.The LNG industry experienced significant global expansionduring the 1980s and 1990s. At that time, LNG export projects were primarily located in oil-producing countries with large national oil companies and operated or financed by international majors such as Shell, Total, and Exxon,among others. Host governments—such as Indonesia (via Pertamina), Malaysia (via Petronas), Algeria (via Sonatrach), Abu Dhabi (via ADNOC), and Russia (via Gazprom)—were directly involved in regulating the pricing of feed gas, determining the volume and price of LNG sales contracts, and designating destinations for LNG exports. These transactions were largely conducted on a government-to-government basis.The entry of US LNG exporters has since transformed thislandscape. Unlike traditional models, US LNG exports are dominated by independent companies operating without oversight from a national energy company. International firms such as Shell, Total, and Exxon have had limited involvement in US LNG, primarily acting as offtakers rather than producers—with the recent commencement of Golden Pass LNG serving as an exception. While the US government provides necessary permits, it generally adopts a hands-off approach once a project is operational. Volumes, quantities, and destinations face minimal regulation, with decisions made predominantly on commercial and technical grounds.However, this dynamic appears to be shifting. The currentadministration has enhanced the efficiency of the permitting process while also becoming more proactive in encouraging global LNG consumers to purchase and invest in US LNG. The US industry now stands as the largest supplier in the world, and notably the principal supplier to Europe—a growth achieved largely without significant intervention from either the US or receiving country governments. This raises the question of whether recent increased governmentalinvolvement is warranted or potentially counterproductive.Additionally, I address the potential impact of proposed‘second-derivative’ sanctions targeting countries engaged in trade with Iran—including several major buyers of US LNG. It remains uncertain whether these measures will significantly affect the US–Iran relationship.A brief analysis is included regarding the recently reported$6/MMBTU liquefaction cost cited by Venture Global, which is three times higher than the cost of their initial project. This escalation is likely attributable to increased capital expenditure, construction, and labor costs currentlyaffecting the US Gulf Coast.Finally, I conclude on a positive note concerning the latestupdates about Texas LNG. Having served as Founder and CEO of Texas LNG for nine years, I am pleased to note that a final investment decision (FID) is anticipated in the coming months. Congratulations to all involved.Feedback and comments are always welcome.@onmymind@vivekchandra @gulfstreamlng