Playing Through the Rough: PCE, CPI, and a Hawkish Fed Backdrop

This week’s discussion focuses on how geopolitical risk and shifting rate expectations are driving markets more than fundamentals. Attention stays on developments in Iran and what a potential ceasefire could mean for energy prices, the dollar, and near-term volatility.  Inflation remains a key swing factor, with mixed readings and a tone in recent Fed messaging that keeps the “higher for longer” debate alive.  Against that backdrop, earnings progress can still be overshadowed as real rates pressure valuations and keep the market macro-driven.  The conversation also frames what “fair value” looks like in municipal bonds versus Treasuries and why technicals and seasonality can matter in the months ahead.  The takeaway emphasizes patience, diversification, and selective opportunity while headline risk stays elevated.  For additional context, watch our national call replay Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth During the Fog of War, AI Disruption, & An Uncertain Economic Path. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesTim McDonough, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management 01:55 — The week’s inflation, employment, growth, and Iran setup 04:10 — PCE vs. CPI: what each read implies for Fed policy 10:15 — Strait of Hormuz risk and longer-run energy infrastructure shifts 15:23 — Municipal bonds: March drawdown, ratios, and supply-demand headwinds 20:34 — Closing message: volatility, diversification, and tuning out noise Additional ResourcesRegister Now: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth During the Fog of War, AI Disruption, & An Uncertain Economic Path Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn