Podcast Then & Now #39 - Teresa Cherfas in conversation with Dmitry Oreshkin

Welcome to the 39th edition of the Russian-language podcast Then & Now with me, Teresa Cherfas. Among the first guests on the podcast was Dmitry Oreshkin, the well-known political scientist. At that time we talked with him about the significance for Russia of that fateful day – 24 February – when Putin launched his war of aggression against the sovereign state of Ukraine.Today, on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, we have invited Dmitry Borisovich on to the podcast again, this time to comment on the progress of Putin’s war and to talk about the current state of Russia against the backdrop of a rapidly changing world and shift in global politics.A geographer by education, Oreshkin has extensive experience as a professional observer of the political, economic and social life of Russia today.This podcast was recorded on 12 February 2026My Questions1. A report published last month by the think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies claimed that since February 2022, Russian troops have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, more than any major power in any war since World War II. What do Russians still in Russia think about how the war is going?2. How is the war affecting people’s daily lives?3. When Donald Trump ran for president of the United States, he promised to conclude a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours. A year later, how do you assess Trump’s efforts to reach a peace agreement?4. The well-known Ukrainian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Oleksandra Matviichuk recently asked a question on social media: “ Why has Trump’s year of negotiations been the deadliest for civilians in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion? The number of deaths and injuries has increased by 31 percent compared to the previous year.Why did Putin not allow himself such brutal strikes on civilian infrastructure under Biden, whom Trump calls ‘weak,’ but totally destroys peaceful cities and disregards the ‘strong Trump’?” How would you answer her?5. The same think tank I mentioned earlier ranks Russia as a second or third world country in terms of its economy. Can Putin continue the war indefinitely without fear that the economic consequences will be devastating for Russia?6. Trump’s indecisiveness regarding Ukraine contrasts sharply with the US operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro a few weeks ago. How do you think Putin and the Kremlin perceived Trump’s boldness regarding Venezuela?7. This was followed by Trump’s demand to incorporate Greenland into the US. How did the Kremlin react to Trump’s declamatory speech in Davos and his subsequent climb-down when he saw the strength of opposition to his plan?8. Many believe Trump is not interested in helping Ukraine and thinks this conflict is a problem that America’s European allies should resolve. What would that mean for Ukraine?9. If Europe does not unite decisively to defend Ukraine, will Putin continue, say, with an attack on the Baltic states?10. The real rival of the United States today is, of course, China. How would you describe Putin’s relationship with President Xi Jinping? Do Putin’s nuclear weapons compensate for Russia’s economic weakness in its own relations with China?11. Many people are talking about the collapse of the rules-based old world order. Do you agree with this interpretation? How do you think the situation will develop over the next few years? How will this affect Putin’s future actions?