Probability and Consequences of Living Inside a Computer Simulation

The question of whether or not we are living inside a computer simulation has inspired a large amount of fiction (notably the novel Simulacron-3 and the movie The Matrix), but, unsurprisingly, not much serious research. Among the more reasonable and quantitative attempts, let us mention Nick Bostrom’s simulation argument: if societies do not tend to self-destruct before acquiring a technology sufficiently advanced to create simulations that are indistinguishable from reality, in which countless simulated beings strive, our probability of living inside such a simulation approaches unity. More recently, Elon Musk, who is the richest person on the planet, declared in 2016 that "the odds we’re in base reality is one in billions". Was he right? Through a refinement of Bostrom's argument and the introduction of an equation reminiscent of the one Drake postulated to estimate the number of extraterrestrial civilisations in the universe, Gilles Brassard comes to the opposite conclusion: the probability that we live in base reality is rather high. Nevertheless, he analyses in his talk one consequence should we actually live in a computer simulation: How could we preserve our privacy against our overlords? The talk is based on the original doctoral work of Alexandre Bibeau-Delisle while under the supervision of Gilles Brassard. The work was published recently in the Proceedings of the Royal Society and available open access at https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2020.0658 Titel anhand dieser DOI in Citavi-Projekt übernehmen.