Recap of Our 2025 Outlook Now that We Are at Mid-year

What this episode covers

In this week's episode, our experts discuss the state of the economy, markets, and investment outlook for the second half of 2025. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:36 - Recap of employment data which shows stability with positive revisions and declining unemployment claims. 03:54 - Discussion about renewed tariff threats (up to 200%) and their potential to slow growth and raise inflation. The team highlights the impact of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” on deficits and long-term interest rates.08:48 - Reflection on a volatile first half of 2025 and anticipates modest gains through August. Forecast of potential market “indigestion” in September–October due to valuation concerns14:33 - Prediction of two rate cuts in 2025, likely starting in September. The team emphasizes uncertainty around tariffs and inflation, and recommends high-quality corporate bonds over Treasuries.Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Is in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and How Does It Compare to Current Law? | Key Private BankBooks and Podcasts for Your 2025 Summer Reading and ListeningKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

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This episode is 23 minutes long.

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This episode was published on July 14, 2025.

What is this episode about?

In this week's episode, our experts discuss the state of the economy, markets, and investment outlook for the second half of 2025. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev...

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