Recession Hiding in Plain Sight – Ep. 146

* We had some wild swing in the market today, particularly the stock market and the gold market * At one point this morning, the Dow Jones was down about 270 points * It finished the day up 53 points * There wasn't any real news that caused the market to go up; people were buying the dip * The oil market also turned around; it was down a buck and change and managed to close up .20-.30 * Gold was the mirror image; gold was up at one point to $27-$28, back above $1250 * Then when the stock market rallied back the gold market sold off * It managed to closed with a small $3 gain or so * Gold stocks closed the day mixed, most still positive on the day * The reason why the stock market falling is positive for gold is the effect that a falling stock market is going to have on the Fed, and its decisions on future interest rate hikes * Even if the stock market is not going down, the Fed will still reverse on rates because of the economy * The economy is back in recession, whether the Fed wants to acknowledge the fact or not * We had another Fed official, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, actually came out saying he sees no signs that a recession is imminent * He sees no reason why the Fed should not go forward with the planned rate hikes for 2016 * Maybe rose-colored glasses are standard issue over at the Fed * There is ample evidence that there is a recession * However, if someone of Lacker's stature would come out and say, "Look, we're going into a recesssion, but rates are really low and the Fed has to raise them anyway, and this is going to be difficult." That would be honest. * But the Fed is saying they are going to raise rates because the economy is in great shape * To do otherwise is to admit that the Fed's monetary policy failed * The Fed is playing a very dangerous game * Not only do they risk making the economy worse, they risk their credibility * Here is some economic news that came out today, after Lacker's speech * At 9:45 am we got the February PMI Flash  Services Index * Last month, the number was 53.7 and this number was expected to repeat for February * The February number came out at 49.8! This shows that the recession is not contained to manufacturing * This reminds me of what they said about sub-prime: "Don't worry about it, the recession is contained to sub-prime." - That was nonsense and it is nonsense now * The problems in the economy are not contained to manufacturing, and today's numbers prove it * The service sector contracted in February * The last time this happened was in October of 2013. That was during the government shut-down, so a lot of government services were not available * That's an outlier - if you take that out, the last time we had a service sector PMI below 50 was during the great recession * So again, another indicator flashing recession * It's amazing to me that the Atlanta Fed still hasn't walked down their 2.6% forecast for Q1 GDP *  We've gotten so much bad news since the good news that prompted that forecast yet they've done nothing to downwardly revise their estimate * The FOMC might have said, "Hey, Atlanta, get with the program! We're talking up the economy - stop coming up with these negative forecasts." * On Friday, we're going to get the revised Q4 GDP numbers, which was originally reported as +.7 * I think it will be revised down, in fact the consensus is a revision down to .4 * So we're getting closer and closer to zero * The numbers we're getting for the first quarter could be worse, despite the Federal Reserve's rosy scenario * Also we got New Home Sales, which was a disaster; they were looking for 520,000 and we got 494,000 - that was a big,Our Sponsors:* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy